BTRTN 2024 Official Election Predictions: Presidency, Senate, House and Governors

[tgards79]

We at BTRTN have been at this for 16 years now, and, while we are not terribly well known, we hold our track record alongside our more famous colleagues. In fact, in 2022, we were “best in class” in the midterms. No one was as accurate as we were in predicting Senate and Governor outcomes (missing only two races out of 71; both “misses” were decided by less than a point and were the last two races called)...

...The real action is, of course, in the seven swing states. Those seven swing states (MI, PA and WI in the north, GA and NC in the south, and AZ and NV in the west) hold a total of 93 electoral votes. Among her 20 “solid” states (and two districts, one each in Maine and Nebraska), Harris can count on 226 electoral votes. Trump, for his part, in his 24 solid states and three districts (two in Nebraska and one in Maine), can count on 219. Each must get to 270 by securing the remainder from those 93 swing state votes.

The swing state polls are spectacularly close. The candidates are within two points of one another in each state, and most are closer than that. All are toss-ups, practically coin flips. To determine who might win requires an assessment of other factors, and most of them, by our assessment, favor Harris. There are two big ones that have led to our prediction...

https://borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/11/04/btrtn-2024-official-election-predictions-presidency-senate-house-and-governors/

[spanone]

1. K&R

Hope they're right!

[LAS14]

2. Makes my brain hurt. nt

[FrankBooth]

3. They are also light

KH will beat Biden's 2020 numbers.

[regnaD kciN]

4. This is NOT good news...

Yes, they have Kamala up by a whisker -- but make Republicans a strong favorite to flip the Senate and give Democrats only 51-49 chance of retaking the House. Meaning that there's an almost-even chance that, come January, both chambers of Congress will be under Republican control. If that's the case, it really doesn't matter how we do in the Presidential race, because, come next January 6, every swing state Harris wins will be challenged...and, this time, the Republicans will have all the votes they need to deny certification and hand the election to Trump.

Yes, Kamala needs to win...but we also need to hold at least one of the chambers of Congress. If we fail at that, we get Emperor Trump, no matter what.

[moonscape]

5. We'll take the House in 2026 should we not

tke it now, but I’m optimistic bout the House. The Senate is the only place I think we’re in trouble and it’s conerning about her Cabinet.

[lees1975]

6. Interesting analysis, since it doesn't really follow the polling data they collect and publish.

And it is dependent on the pollsters and their methodology.

[tgards79]

7. Why do you say that?

It's not all about the polls, anyway, if you read the article.