New poll - NH - Harris 62 Trump 34

[Jersey Devil]

Link to tweet

[Beetwasher.]

1. !!!

[TheBlackAdder]

17. If this is true, Trump really shat the bed. I bet a lot of Red voters were crossover.

[MannyS]

2. NH is my early bellwether state! n/t

[OAITW r.2.0]

3. Holy Crap. I was just in North Conway, NH....and everyone seemed to be pro-Kamala. If this is true, it;s gonna be

a Blue goddam Tsunami.

[Jersey Devil]

4. Huge margin

Between this poll by Dartmouth College and the Seller Iowa poll it does seem like it might be a blowout

[Music Man]

5. Hmm... Either the polls showing a tight race are about to be historically, epically wrong

Or there is some suspect methodology here

Let's hope it's the former

Here is a paper on the poll. Folks smarter than me at this stuff might be able to detail why this poll is so different from most others in NH that have typically showed a 5 to 6 point race: https://rockefeller.dartmouth.edu/sites/rockefeller.prod/files/rockefeller/wysiwyg/the_dartmouth_poll_wave_2_media_release.pdf

[askyagerz]

16. I wish there was more details in there

But I would imagine it would show the same thing as the Iowa poll. 65+, independents and late deciders all breaking for kamala. Also looks like some GOP crossovers when you compare with the governors race

[markodochartaigh]

22. "....GOP crossovers..."

It does, maybe 4-6%. If that holds true in other states..........

[askyagerz]

24. Thats what I've been seeing

Only possible way she would be -5 in KS, +3 in IA and +28 in NH.
If these numbers are even half ass close something big shifted in the last 2 weeks or so.
As soon as I saw John Kelley's interview I had a feeling she could take 65+ males and it looks like that might be happening. If it's happening in Iowa it will def happen in bigger states

[SweetieD]

6. What were 2016 and 2020 NH #s like? n/t

[carpetbagger]

9. Wildly closer.

Clinton won by 1/2 percent, Biden by about 7.

[LAS14]

37. And Kerry lost, after exit polls showed him winning. We were there driving voters to the polls. Sad day. nt

[Aristus]

41. That was twenty years ago, Kerry was running against the incumbent,

the nation’s below-averages were grooving on ‘don’t change horses in the middle of two wars’, and MAGA makes PNAC look like Up With People.

[carpetbagger]

48. Still hurts

That's the election that eventually got us Citizens United.

[lees1975]

7. Seriously?!

Wow. And Iowa, where Harris leads by 3. Note that these are in-state, locally conducted polls by people who are looking for what the data is telling them. They aren't trying to use the data to fit their narrative.

That is amazing.

[Prairie Gates]

8. What in the world?

Didn't they send Corey Lewandowski up there to straighten shit out?

[carpetbagger]

11. They did ...

And then I saw him on the tarmack at that garbage truck thing. I guess he worked his magic so well (see above poll) there was time to whatever or whatever.

[dchill]

27. Nope. Chris LaCivita - with a parachute.

[onetexan]

10. Woohooo!!!

[Wiz Imp]

12. Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance is predicting a Trump victory in New Hampshire on Election Day

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-campaign-expanding-the-map-vance-says-in-new-hampshire/ar-AA1ttl6M

Trump and Vance really are delusional

[markodochartaigh]

21. "Trump and Vance really are delusional"

Well, that would explain a lot.

[Johnny2X2X]

13. Landslide coming

Trump was up in NH against Biden. This is a massive turnaround.

[Janbdwl72]

14. Great news!

It was clearly a waste for the Republicans to make a campaign visit there for a lost cause.

[Grown2Hate]

15. If this is REMOTELY close to true (and as

an atheist, I'm PRAYING to Koresh that it is), it's a full on Blue Tsunami in progress. Fucking AMAZING.

[fishwax]

18. I'm hopeful, but boy that number is out of line with other NH polls

I hope that this one is right. Another poll came out a day or two ago that had a four point spread.

If this poll is anywhere close to right, and we get an early call on NH on election night, I will be much more relaxed that's for sure.

[usonian]

19. It is my theory that "undecided" voters are former Trump voters looking for a nudge to cross that Rubicon.

BuzzFeed posted replies from readers

29 republicans share why they switched.


https://www.buzzfeed.com/morgansloss1/republicans-voting-for-kamala-harris-share-why

These are compelling reasons, and it seems that the latest MickeyD, garbage, and mic sucking stunts, perhaps the incoherent gibberish, were enough.

Anything that brings the BIG W (win) is fine.

[NJCher]

30. That was really interesting

It seems to boil down to this:

Trump is a convicted felon who has turned the GOP into a MAGA cult. ( quote from a Republican.) .

[Warpy]

20. New England is not TFG country

because he's fucked too many people over for too many years and everybody seems to know someone or of someone (usually through his or her family) that he's absolutely destroyed in one way or another.

They don't know him as well in Maine, but they're learning fast.

[OAITW r.2.0]

34. NH has always had a reputation for being the most conservative NE State.

Up till the last 20 years or so. Lots of democrats/progressives have moved to Southern NH and work in MA.

[LAS14]

38. Kerry lost NH after exit polls showed him winning. nt

[RidinWithHarris]

23. Makes me a bit sad to have moved to Ohio from NH a couple of years ago

A lot more of my kind of people back in NH!

[Sky Jewels]

25. ...

[dchill]

26. Dixville Notch notwithstanding.

(3-3)

[LAS14]

39. We saw Dixville Notch for the first time on a leaf peeping jaunt. We didn't realize it...

... was such a tourist mecca... for the scenery, not the break of day voting. But I can see that it's in their economic interest to get into the news.

[Self Esteem]

28. I would be absolutely floored if Harris won by that much. Maybe half that if we're lucky.

[RandySF]

29. This sounds too goo to be trur BUT

would be consistent with the Selzer Iowa poll.

[lostnfound]

31. Just a 4% improvement, actually -- 59 vs 35 in 2020, from same survey

If you read the survey it shows the same people responded to another question, who did you vote for in 2020. 59% said Biden, 35% said Trump. So it went from a 24% lead to a 28% lead. A good improvement but not earth shattering.

[Renew Deal]

35. Biden won 52-45 in 2020

So they were pretty far off.

[LAS14]

40. Thanks for that. The more facts on DU the better! nt

[Polybius]

32. Welp, the midnight vote showed a tie

Not that I think NH will be close, but Harris will win by 8-10 points there.

[W_HAMILTON]

36. The midnight vote didn't include any registered Democrats -- and yet Kamala tied Trump.

[Polybius]

44. Biden won the same group (minus one) 5-0

[W_HAMILTON]

46. It wasn't the same group.

In 2020, there were four votes in the Democratic Primary and one vote in the Republican Primary -- and all votes actually went to Democrats (one person voted for Bloomberg in the Republican Primary).

In 2024, there were six votes in the Republican Primary -- all for Haley.

PS - Did you make predictions this cycle or did you skip on that after what happened last time around?

[Polybius]

47. Thank you for clarifying

So a few people moved since 2020 I'm assuming.

As for predictions, they are coming by 1:30 or so. I'll give you a hint: Senate bad news, Presidency good news. I'm still torn on Ohio Senate. Regarding last time, I didn't do all that awful. While some percentages were off, I only got two wrong in 2022. The misspelling was my biggest error.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217327262

[Johnny2X2X]

43. Midnight vote was 5 Republicans and a Democrat

3-3 with that makeup is good.

[Polybius]

45. Biden won the same group (minus one) 5-0 though

[Kali999]

33. die hards

That's his base , fundies and low info voters. I really hope Craig kicks Ayottes butt and the legislatures flip.

[yellowcanine]

42. More evidence of older white women fleeing from Trump. The Iowa poll was not an outlier.

This has implications for Wisconsion, Michigan, Pennsylvania and also Ohio, Indiana, Florida and Texas, possibly Kansas and Nebraska. I predict that one or more of states outside of the 7 swing states will flip blue. Something organic is happening across the country. I would not be shocked to see her get well over 300 electoral votes.