My final Senate picks

[Polybius]

I would like to present my forecasts regarding the outcomes of the US Senate elections. I will refrain from discussing certain races where the victor is evidently apparent (such as in Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, etc.). Let me know if you agree with my assessments, and if you hold a differing opinion, please share your reasoning.

Arizona: Ruben Gallego defeats Kari Lake by 4.5%

California: Adam Schiff defeats MLB star Steve Garvey by 28 points.

Florida: While some say Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has a chance, I thing the state is too far gone. Rick Scott wins by 5.9%.

Maryland: Interesting race. Larry Hogan was a popular governor, and he will far outperform Trump there, but he won't be winning. Angela Alsobrooks wins by 11.2%.

Michigan: Mike Rogers will make it close, but he won't defeat Elissa Slotkin, who wins by 2.3%

Missouri: As hated as he is, Josh Hawley wins by 11 points against Lucas Kunce.

Montana: I'm gonna get hate for this, but in a state that Trump will win by 18+, Jon Tester will not hold onto his seat. He loses to Tim Sheehy by 5.1%.

Nebraska: Deb Fischer holds on and defeats Independent Dan Osborn. Osborn will do surprisingly well, however, losing by 4%.

New Mexico: No contest here. Martin Heinrich defeats Nella Domenici by 13.

Nevada: I haven't followed this one much at all, so don't take much of this prediction. Jacky Rosen obviously wins over Sam Brown. Hmm, 6 points.

Ohio: Ohhhhhh! This is what caused me to delay my picks until Election Day itself. I am going back and forth. Sherrod Brown is in the fight of his life against MAGA Bernie Moreno. Trump will win the state by 8, but Brown will significantly overperform Kamala Harris. I guess I have to make a prediction, right? Brown by a hair, as in 0.2%. I'll take it.

Pennsylvania: Bob Casey is popular, but David McCormick ran a great campaign. He's also more Bush than Trump, if that means anything. Still, Casey has this by 2.3%.

Texas: As much as we'd like to see Ted Cruz lose, he's not going to with Trump on the ballot. He defeats Colin Allred, who made it close. Cruz by 3.7%.

Virginia: Tim Kaine wins by 10 over Hung Cao.

Wisconsin: Close, but Tammy Baldwin defeats Eric Hovde by 2.8%.

West Virginia: Welp, we're gonna miss Joe Manchin, at least how he votes compared to Jim Justice. He defeats Glenn Elliott by 38 points.

Summery: Republicans pick up two seats, in a very Republican-friendly cycle. They will control the Senate 51-49.

[Gore1FL]

1. Last MO poll I saw Kunce was within 3 of Hawley and democrats are energized by Amendment 3.

Hawley may win, but I don't think it will be in the double digits.

[kwolf68]

2. I see nothing here I don't agree with

Had hopes for Montana, Texas and even Nebraska, but those states are just so far out of play, despite how awesome our candidates may be. So basically, if Harris wins she has no chance of putting anyone on the SCOTUS until 2026 or later.

[Omnipresent]

4. I believe she can wait for her senate.

There is no rule that says she has to make an immediate decision to appoint a justice.
Eight can sit on the bench until Republicans accept her nominee.

[kwolf68]

5. That's true

And while I think 2026 is better for Dems in the Senate than 2024 was, I also don't see many easy targets.

I'll never despise a group of politicians than what the Republicans did to pack the court. AT WORST this should be 5-4, the chicanery holding up Garland then forcing through Hand Maiden was dreadful politics and I despise every last one of those people who did that.

[Lonestarblue]

3. I think you may be right about Tester, which is too bad.

I’m keeping my fingers crossed for Cruz and Scott to go down.

[kwolf68]

6. Scum bags both

Cruz is a disgusting vile twit, but unless something is hidden in the numbers, I fear he will return. I also believe Texas is probably as corrupt as any state in flushing voters off the rolls.

[lees1975]

7. I read that Tester led in the last couple of polls, as did Allred and Mucarsel-Powell

Slight leads, but leads. Reflects some movement, I think.

Polls have Brown +2 and +4.

Hawley-Kunce is within MOE, two recent polls.

So if you believe polls.

[Polybius]

9. Not from anything I'm seeing

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/montana/sheehy-vs-tester

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/montana/general/

[lees1975]

11. Well, I don't look at or consider either one of those plausible. Especially not RCP. Look local.

[Polybius]

14. They both show polling from every major poll, from bad polling companies to good ones

Especially 538. None have Tester up.

[Emile]

8. Bookmarking

[Polybius]

21. Looking back, I did pretty good

I got PA wrong. Ohio too, but at least on that one I was going back and forth and didn't feel strong about it.

[Rock Fly]

10. Arizona

Might be real close.

[Polybius]

12. A McCain-type Republican would have made it close, or even won

But Lake is just too MAGA. Even more so than Trump.

[tritsofme]

13. A small GOP majority will be hard for them to defend in 2026, even if it is generally a bad year for Democrats

Think Republicans in 2018, a bad election for them,
but still managed to gain a few Senate seats due to a favorable map. We could similarly win seats and retake the Senate in that cycle, Republicans will be defending a lot of ground.

[Polybius]

15. I haven't looked at the 2026 map yet

It's mostly Republicans defending seats?

[tritsofme]

20. 20 Republicans and 13 Democrats up in 2026.

[OneGrassRoot]

16. That's depressing..

Even if/when she wins, how will they get anything done with Republicans and the courts blocking everything?

I know a true wave is a long shot but without Dems in control of the House and Senate Republicans will work harder than ever to make sure governing doesn’t work and to destroy her agenda.

😢

[maxsolomon]

17. You forgot Cantwell in WA.

I live here, and I can't even name her opponent.

Cantwell wins her FIFTH term by a country mile. 30 friggin' years of not very much.

[Polybius]

18. I didn't forget

Most of the obvious ones I didn't list, such as WA and HI. I agree btw. Hmm, 25 point win? More?

[maxsolomon]

19. Sounds realistic.

She's been Senator here since 2000.

The only time you hear about her is when she runs for re-election. This time she's running on "I just want to get things done". Blegh.