General Discussion

TwilightZone

(28,836 posts) Tue Nov 5, 2024, 06:07 PM Nov 2024

Kamala Harris Predicted to Win By Nearly Every Major Forecaster

Sorry for the Newsweek link. And, Nate Silver alert! Sorry.

As polls open, Vice President Kamala Harris is predicted to win the election by almost every major forecaster.

Nate Silver's latest forecast now gives Harris a slight edge in the Electoral College, projecting her with a 50 percent chance of victory compared to former President Donald Trump's 49.6 percent. The model shows Harris securing 271 Electoral College votes to Trump's 267.

Other aggregators echo the close race but similarly give Harris a small advantage. FiveThirtyEight currently projects her with a 50 percent chance of winning, forecasting 270 Electoral College votes for Harris to Trump's 268.

Meanwhile, U.K. newspaper The Economist predicts that Harris will win 276 votes to Trump's 262—a scenario also reflected by forecaster Larry Sabato. Race to the White House predicts she will win 275 electoral votes.

I left out the two for Trump because screw those guys. haha

More: https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-national-polls-election-forecast-1980450

7 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Kamala Harris Predicted to Win By Nearly Every Major Forecaster (Original Post) TwilightZone Nov 2024 OP

Giving odds ever so slightly above a coin toss is not a prediction of a win RidinWithHarris Nov 2024 #1

Silver is a compromised asshat.... getagrip_already Nov 2024 #3

They're still predictions. TwilightZone Nov 2024 #4

coin flips predictions aren't helpful. WarGamer Nov 2024 #2

So, where do you draw the line? TwilightZone Nov 2024 #6

No, I mean predicting winners... WarGamer Nov 2024 #7

Nearly Every Major Forecaster Jason1961 Nov 2024 #5

RidinWithHarris

(790 posts)

1. Giving odds ever so slightly above a coin toss is not a prediction of a win

Reply to TwilightZone (Original post)

Tue Nov 5, 2024, 06:11 PM

Nov 2024

It is a minutely slanted "Heck if we know what's gonna happen".

getagrip_already

(17,802 posts)

3. Silver is a compromised asshat....

Reply to RidinWithHarris (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 5, 2024, 06:14 PM

Nov 2024

Bought and paid for.

TwilightZone

(28,836 posts)

4. They're still predictions.

Reply to RidinWithHarris (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 5, 2024, 06:14 PM

Nov 2024

Some sites hedged their bets and only gave odds instead of predicting a winner. At least these organizations didn't do that.

WarGamer

(18,863 posts)

2. coin flips predictions aren't helpful.

Reply to TwilightZone (Original post)

Tue Nov 5, 2024, 06:12 PM

Nov 2024

TwilightZone

(28,836 posts)

6. So, where do you draw the line?

Reply to WarGamer (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 5, 2024, 06:29 PM

Nov 2024

52%, 55%, 60%?

Predictions are predictions.

They shouldn't make them just because the edge is slight? Nah, that's silly.

WarGamer

(18,863 posts)

7. No, I mean predicting winners...

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #6)

Tue Nov 5, 2024, 06:32 PM

Nov 2024

a 50-49% isn't a good predictor of a winner. It's a predictor of a close race.

If it was Trump 51% chance of winning and Harris with 49% chance of winning, I'd HATE a headline that said "Trump holding slight lead in tight race"

Jason1961

(461 posts)

5. Nearly Every Major Forecaster

Reply to TwilightZone (Original post)

Tue Nov 5, 2024, 06:15 PM

Nov 2024

These guys might not always tell you what you want to hear but they're almost always right, just get ready for VP Harris to be President Elect Harris

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