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[Claustrum]

This message was self-deleted by its author (Claustrum) on Tue Nov 5, 2024, 07:18 PM. When the original post in a discussion thread is self-deleted, the entire discussion thread is automatically locked so new replies cannot be posted.

[Kittycatkat]

1. Wow, kentucky? Blue Tsunami? 🙏

[Claustrum]

4. No. TFG is still winning there. But Kamala is improving at rural counties comparing to Biden.

So if it's a trend across most states, it could mean overall numbers for TFG to be down. It's still too early to tell though.

[Jersey Devil]

2. Only 4% of the vote for Ky is in according to AP 9 for Ind

I think you Ned a lot more votes before you can say there is any trend

[Claustrum]

5. Definitely. I am not saying it's a trend yet.

But it is looking good right now. It might show that the Iowa poll was actually true.

[get the red out]

28. I know he will win here in KY

But the votes in Lexington and Louisville haven’t rolled in, if the rural areas are closer then the state will definitely be closer than 2020.

[MannyS]

3. Down in the rural areas probably means

down in the suburbs, and the burbs are where its usually won or lost.

[Emile]

6. 2024 numbers?

[Claustrum]

7. Yes. But it's still a small number so far. Just some rural county reporting so far.

Brian Tyler Cohen skips reporting that are below 60% and only look at counties with more. And quite a number of those that is consistently showing 3-4 points improvement comparing to Biden's 2020 number. It's still too early to tell though.

[Eliot Rosewater]

9. Any early voting showing Trump leading which it will show for certain

Will be him saying that he has won the election even though it’s absurd to say that at that point and now you’ve got 60 million Americans willing to start a war when he loses.

[Claustrum]

11. I mean, he did it in 2020.

He declared he won the first night and no one cared nor did it affect the outcome. I think it will be the same this year. There are more normal Americans than the crazy MAGA. He also has a lot less power now as a private citizen than he was in 2020 when he was president.

[Eliot Rosewater]

15. Unless they file a lawsuit claiming voter irregularity based on nothing of course

And get a maggot judge to stop The counting and ultimately disqualify the results based on made up imaginary problems.

[AllyCat]

8. It's like 5 and 10 % of the vote, but interesting.

[Claustrum]

14. Definitely interesting.

One of the reason Biden won was that his support in the rural part went up from Hillary in 2016. If Kamala improves on Biden's number, then it will be a good night for us. TFG's support mostly come from rural counties.

[bushalert]

10. Love hearing that.

[Emile]

12. They always call red Indiana and red Kentucky first.

[jcgoldie]

13. Pence is from indiana

That could account for a few points in indiana but lets hope the same thing happens in wi mi pa

[Claustrum]

17. I would argue it could validate the Iowa poll that came out a few days ago.

And that probably has impact across the whole country.

[EnergizedLib]

16. I'm in a rural Indiana county

And did my part to vote straight blue.

[Emile]

19. Same here

[Zambero]

26. Same here, semi-rural in Idaho

[TwilightZone]

18. I presume that you meant Biden's 2020 numbers, not 2024.

[Claustrum]

22. Oops. Thanks for the correction.

Corrected the OP.

[TwilightZone]

23. No worries.

There's a lot going on.

[SomedayKindaLove]

20. Is this day of voting ballots?

Early ballots?

Both?

[beaglelover]

21. Source?

[Claustrum]

24. Brian Tyler Cohen is going over the votes as it releases.

He is going over some counties results that has 60% of reporting.

[beaglelover]

25. Thank you!

[JohnSJ]

27. Why? She is going to win those states is she?

[Claustrum]

29. No. She is not.

But TFG's main votes are coming from rural counties. If rural counties across the country drops their support for TFG by 3-4 points, Kamala will have a very good night tonight. It's too early and not enough data points to tell if it's a trend yet.

But it is kinda validating the Iowa poll we saw a few days ago.

So it's a good sign for now.

[JohnSJ]

31. I am not sure that can be extrapolated to other states.

[TwilightZone]

30. Both called for Trump almost immediately.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/presidential-election-2024-live-updates-rcna175556

[EnergizedLib]

32. Are we in trouble?

[TwilightZone]

33. Nope.

This was fully expected -- Trump was always going to win them easily. To be honest, I'm not really sure why they were even a focus here. I'm not sure what it can really tell us about anywhere else.

[tinrobot]

34. Somewhat confirms that Iowa poll

Definitely a shift towards Kamala in red areas.