How were the polls and data off so much for a 4 pt margin

[oldmanlynn]

How did the Harris campaign not know they were 3 points down. Im so confused

[WarGamer]

1. just like 2016 and 2020...

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Trump's team out smarted everyone

Again. They did it with micro ads in 2016 that no one suspected. They did it in 2024 with social media influencers, buying voter registrations, and running a high tech social media blitz that the Dems weren't clued in to.

Dems got caught flat footed again. It’s sickening.

[uponit7771]

7. Unnnn, that doesn't explain 4 points hard to Trump ... that's outside MOE on all polls last 3 days.

[Self Esteem]

9. It won't be four when all the votes come in. It'll probably be around 1-2 points at most.

[Johnny2X2X]

11. Trumps team reached voters who don't usually vote

The polls don’t account for them. He probably won with a ton of 18-29 year old men.

[uponit7771]

12. How did they beat the 18-29 yr old women?! I'll love to see the data here

[Johnny2X2X]

14. They didn't have to beat them.

They had to be enough to push him over the top. And I think Latino men flipped to Trump in some states.

I hate to say it, but Dems are playing checkers and the GOP and Musk were using AI to play chess. Dems thought they could run the same campaign they did in 2020.

[womanofthehills]

15. Also, Tucker & Rogan have bigger audiences than the cable tv shows

Lots of young males listen and they both had continual long interviews 5 days a week with Trump, JD, RFK Jr, Elon, Tulsi etc - over and over - really heavy the last week.

We definitely need a bigger social media presence.

[Johnny2X2X]

16. I begged her to go on Rogan

His audience is reasonable and she could have gotten millions of them to at least question the BS they were being fed.

[JCMach1]

3. Bradley Effect with polling...

[AZSkiffyGeek]

4. Young males

[Drum]

5. NONE OF US WOULD BELIEVE THE POLLS

As recently as yesterday.

[uponit7771]

8. None of the polls in last 3 days were showing 4 hard to Trump

[Polybius]

10. Except the ridiculous outliers that she was ahead in

Like Iowa.

[Drum]

6. And, record-setting fundraising and spending.

For naught.

[andym]

13. NY Times Needle shows it will be less than a 2% difference in PA, MI and WI-- within the polls MOE

2% is within the MOE of the polls.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president-forecast-needle.html
The national polls were also spot on-- a near tie.