Why Was TX A Dead Heat & Cancun Cruz Won By 8.6%??

[SoCalDavidS]

They had polls showing it was close, within the margin of error. One or 2 even put Allred ahead by 1%, only days before the election.

[LexVegas]

1. Because more people voted for Cruz. nt

[MichMan]

2. Polls were apparently wrong

[Irish_Dem]

3. So many statistical improbabilities.

But we are not supposed to ask any questions.

[MichMan]

6. Because the actual results didn't align with the pre election polls, and a incumbent won?

[Irish_Dem]

14. I am talking statistical analysis. You are talking about a different topic.

You are doing something called a straw man argument.
A logical fallacy by changing the topic to another argument.

Your argument would be stronger if you counter my statistical commentary.

[MichMan]

16. Statistical analysis of specifically what?

You just said there were statistical improbabilities with zero context.

[stopdiggin]

15. many people that throw out terms like 'statistical improbabilities'

really have no idea what that means.

I don't point to the poster specifically, because I have no idea of their relevant background in math and statistics. But I will stand behind the statement that these terms are tossed around far too freely - and often without any real understanding of the science. And, unfortunately - these days it is just dead easy to find an 'expert' that is willing to peddle just about any hogwash people are eager to hear. As evidence - I'll point you to the 'medical practitioners' who were willing to preach anti-mask and anti-vaccine during our recent pandemic ...

And, finally - - nobody but nobody - is saying anything like "don't ask questions"
There are a steadfast few that are asking, "Please don't preach what you really don't know."
If, on the other hand, you have real evidence ...
Then by all means, go for it!

[0rganism]

4. Polls were not predictive, likely due to weighting models developed from 2020 and 2022 turnout

After all the complaining around here regarding how Republicans were overrepresented in polls, turns out they were up by a lot more than the much-hated NYT-Siena results were showing.

[Tribetime]

7. No party has ever outperformed the polling 3 Presidential Elections in a row

Never....only drump

[0rganism]

12. And now, by hook or by crook, one has done so

Welcome to the "first time for everything" zone, I guess.

[Tribetime]

19. Yeah, I'm not.Saying it was stolen.It's just the facts

Trump never pulled above forty seven forty eight percent and got about forty six and a half percent in the other two elections. So now, after 34 felony convictions.And an insurrection, he gets over 50%.It's just strange not saying it's not possible.It's just very strange.What's wrong with these people voting for him

[cloudbase]

5. Cruz ran an effective ad campaign,

hitching Allred to trans rights and open borders.

[duncang]

17. Also the ads I saw on local news

Towards the last few days came in fast and frequent. Add the separate ad about Democrat judges leaned into that only republicans will keep you safe.

[kirby]

8. Dead heat?

I was seeing polls with Allred down 4... He was a long shot.

[tritsofme]

9. Looks like Allred was down 4 points in the polling averages.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/texas/cruz-vs-allred

So it really wasn’t ever as close as we wished it was.

[TwilightZone]

10. It wasn't a dead heat and late deciders almost always go R here in Texas.

Allred probably needed to be ahead in the polls because polls here aren't very good at dealing with our odd, long-term turnout issues.

Races often look closer here than they really are for those reasons.

[madville]

11. Florida also, polling showed a much closer race

Some polls were showing Scott by 6% and he won by like 12 or 13…

[stillcool]

13. it's got to do with white women, white men

latino males, and maybe some black males? I don't think I'm missing anyone, but I might be. Votes in this country, have a funny way of moving around, but it's all very legit. Another of those don't ask, don't tell things, kind of like the 2000 Supreme Court winner selection of a one-time only ruling, never to be referenced again

[alarimer]

18. I guess the polls were wrong

By a lot, evidently. Still, I wouldn't waste any more money on Cruz's opponents.

[JCMach1]

20. I didn't expect Allred to.win (I live in TX), but I expected us

To lose by 1-3%