A point about the election

[Pototan]

I tried, in a previous post, to make a point about "bullet ballots", but I did so clumsily and with some questionable data.

I think I can make my point with more clarity after some long thought.

My thesis is that Trump, and Trump alone, carries the disgruntled electorate that votes on grievance, even though they have no idea who's to blame. In many instances, it's themselves. But that's an issue for another day.

Let me try to deal with facts. Shared facts. Assuming, as I do, that the election was free and fair, here's what we know. Donald Trump gained in nearly every state, from 4 years ago, net voter wise and carried each of the 7 swing states.

Yet even though Trump won the popular vote by about a point and a half and improved in every state, the Republicans did not gain any seats in the House and did not improve upon their dismal performance in 2022.

In 6 of the 7 swing states there was a hotly contested statewide election. 5 Senators and 1 Governor. Even though Trump won each state, the Democrats carried 4 of the 5 contested Senators' races and won the Governorship.

Even in the Republican "pickups", the Democratic candidate outperformed the top of the ticket.

Trump had no coattails. A substantial amount of Trump voters either blanked the rest of the ballot or, in many cases, split the ticket and voted Trump and then Democrats down ballot.

This is not the sign of a successful political movement, but more indicative of a personality cult. As further evidence, Trump-like candidates got trounced in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023. Trump's votes are for Trump. There is no ideology, and his disgruntled voters will return to their cellars in future elections. They are not Republicans. They are not informed voters. They have an ax to grind, and Trump is their vehicle. When Trump leaves the scene, or even when he's still President but not on the ballot, these 4% or 5% of cult members will not participate. They hate Republicans as much as Democrats. They hate our system. That 4% or 5% is the margin of victory or defeat.

[H2O Man]

1. Recommended.

Very interesting. Very well written. And very important points.

[Pototan]

12. Thank you

[LearnedHand]

2. I agree everything you said, but you might be missing a subtle detail

I think it wasn't all cult of Donald that swung the vote his way. There was also a fairly substantial protest vote. Although much of that protest may have been related to people's personal economies, I think a large percentage of it was directly about the war in Gaza. I myself know of such a protest strategy where I live. The young people are incandescent with rage over what's happening there, and it's a perfectly valid protest in their minds to vote Dem down-ballot but leave the presidential race blank or to vote for TSF.

Folks may not agree with their actions, but it does no good to ignore it. They are coming into a lot of voting power, and they don't imagine the world through the lens of political parties.

[Pototan]

4. Numerically, there's nothing you can do about it

If you take the side of the Muslim and Arab Americans, you lose a large portion of your Jewish constituency. As a matter of fact, more Americans support Israel than the Palestinians on this issue. I don't want to argue the merits, I hate war in any shape or form, but as a practical political matter, when your party consists of many different groups, you are at a disadvantage to a cult.

But any clear-thinking American who thinks they are better off with Trump when it comes to Gaza, or any Muslim who thinks Trump is good for them, they will learn the hard way.

I used to be very sympathetic to the plight of Muslim discrimination in the United States. I protested the Muslim ban at Logan airport in Boston. But after this last election, my sympathy is gone. As far as I'm concerned. when they need support, they can call Jill Stein.

[lapfog_1]

3. I wonder what AOC and others will find out about the

ticket split people? The people that voted trump and then straight D down ballot.

I have two thoughts but they are speculative

1. they are anti war voters that believed trump would end Gaza and Ukraine by leaning on his "friends" Vlad and Bibi. never mind the the end of both of those wars by trump probably means a complete destruction and depopulation of Ukraine and Gaza and the west bank. these voters just did not get that.

2. for purely selfish reasons, a lot of service workers that receive a significant amount of their compensation in tips would, under trump, not pay income tax on that income.

[orleans]

6. on your point #2 - kamala said the same thing (she wouldn't tax tips) nt

[beveeheart]

7. I was an election judge in Colorado

and I did not see any ballots that had a vote for trump and then Democrats. Of course I didn't see all the ballots, but of the thousands that I did see, the down ballot was either empty or republicans.

[Meowmee]

5. It didn't happen the first time though

I find it suspicious, the election in general. If it was on the up and up, I think it just proves that you never really know what’s going to happen and that people will do whatever they feel like doing if they vote etc., and that many are fascist types, idiots or both for the most part. Include in that people who screw up the election for their own personal and I believe crazy reasons with a vote or a non vote.

I don’t think we know if we’re even going to have any more “normal elections” much less be able to predict what’s going to happen. If the economy tanks badly in the next two years and things go really crazy and there is a normal election it should help in the two year elections

[nmmi]

8. I'm bothered by comparisons to 2020. Back then, those with a sour view of the economy voted overwhelmingly for

change (in this case, for Biden). by a 63 point margin.

In 2024, those with a sour view of the economy again voted overwhelmingly for change (in this case, for Trump), by a 40 vote margin.

This from The Week, 11/22/24 issue, p.16

It seems that 95 out of 100 pundits, including the message-board type pundits, talk only in terms of how large the shift to the right between 2020 and 2024 was, and how much or how little each demographic shifted and what this proves or doesn't prove about what caused the election results.

I would urge people to consider whether, instead, it was more about a vote for change, with the anti-incumbent vote winning both times.

It didn't say what "sour view of the economy was", exactly. But from NBC New's presentation of the 2024 exit polls https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/exit-polls: there are a number of questions about the state of the economy, beginning with:

Do you think the condition of the nation's economy is:
Excellent (5%), Good (27%), Not so good (35%), and Poor (33%)

I was also surprised that in another presentation of the economy, that the "my financial situation is worse than a year ago" was higher at the time of the 2024 election (31%) than at the time of the 2020 election (25%)

Lots of Republicans suddenly think the economy wasn’t that bad after all, Washington Post, 11/21/24
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/lots-of-republicans-suddenly-think-the-economy-wasn-t-that-bad-after-all/ar-AA1uw6g4
(no paywall for this msn.com-hosted article)

The polling firm YouGov has been asking Americans to evaluate their financial position for 15 years now. That data allows us to see how the percentage of people who say their financial positions had grown worse over the preceding year

Measuring the graph carefully, 25 percentage points = 46 mm, Those who felt that the economy was worst off: At the pandemic peak: 31%, at the time of the 2020 election: 25%, at the inflation peak in mid-2022: 49%, and at the time of the 2024 election: 31%.

[Pototan]

9. The eceonomy was worse in 2022

yet there was no "red wave".

Of course, there was no Trump on the ballot.

[nmmi]

11. No red wave, but we did lose the House in 2022

I think in 2022 the shock value of the Dobbs decision was higher, coming just 4 1/2 months before the election.

[NJCher]

10. good analysis

makes sense, especially the part about the coattails. The point I want to address is the people you classify with this statement: They are not informed voters. They have an ax to grind, and Trump is their vehicle.

I personally have a hunch that trump is barely going to last a year. That year will be important, though, as it will be pure chaos and the ugliness of his personality being expressed through rapists and rapist-type cabinet heads.

Trump is unique in the fact that he is probably the single most awful person to exist, ever. He's special, not in a good way, but in the worst way possible. Coming off the reality show era and Covid, he demonstrated every dysfunctional way to deal with an emotion and about half the country jumped on that bandwagon. They transmuted their ugly emotions into a political movement.

An example is denial. Denial is just lying to yourself. Very simple. He taught half the country that simple, dysfunctional way of dealing with a truth that is hard to accept. Just lie to yourself. Easy peasy. And try to get others to live the lie, too.

Yet another dysfunctional psychological reaction that he demonstrated was to take no responsibility. Something goes wrong? Go out of your way to blame it on someone else.

I've given two examples, but there are many more. A further characteristic of this way of psychological dysfunction is emotional immaturity. One can be emotionally immature at even age 70. I'm sure that's no surprise to the people reading here.

My point in bringing this up is that when trump is out of the picture, there are no coattails to his emotional catharsis for the emotionally immature, either.

The hardcores will go back to their basements (or cellars, as you say).

[Pototan]

13. Thank you