Americans Have One Very Strange Cognitive Bias -- Jonathan V. Last - TheBulwark

[erronis]

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/americans-have-one-very-strange-cognitive
Or: How I learned to stop worrying and love The People.

1. Perceptions

Yesterday Jemele Hill recirculated a study YouGov did in 2022 about the gaps between people’s perceptions and reality.

YouGov asked a series of questions on “What percentage of Americans do you think are [fill in the blank]?” with the [blank] being all sorts of qualities: black, gay, Christian, left-handed, own a passport, etc.

The results were hilarious. Here are some of the percentages that Americans (on average) think their fellow citizens are:

Transgender: 21 percent

Muslim: 27 percent

Jewish: 30 percent

Black: 41 percent

Live in New York City: 30 percent

Gay or lesbian: 30 percent

We’ll get to the actual, in vivo percentages in a moment. First I want to point out the absurdity: 1-in-3 are gay/lesbian? Muslims and Jews make up 57 percent of the country? Blacks are 40 percent of the population?

Not to be crass, but if a third of the population is gay/lesbian then where are all the kids coming from?

If a quarter of the country is Muslim and a third is Jewish, then mosques plus synagogues would outnumber churches. Does anyone see more mosques and synagogues than churches as they drive around?

If 40 percent of the country is black then wouldn’t there be a lot more black people in Congress? I mean, there have only been 12 African-American senators ever.

You see what I mean: These perceptions do not square with any version of observable reality. Here the numbers as they actually exist in the real world:

Transgender: 1 percent

Muslim: 1 percent

Jewish: 2 percent

Black: 12 percent

Live in New York City: 2 percent1

Gay or lesbian: 3 percent

We are talking about errors of perception measured by orders of magnitude. On the trans population, the average American’s estimation is off by 2,000 percent.

If you go down the list of characteristics YouGov asked people about, you see a persistent mistake in one direction: Americans vastly overestimate the numbers of people in minority groups. And by “minority groups” I’m talking not just about racial, ethnic, and sexual minorities. They wildly overestimate all kinds of minorities.

[k55f5r]

1. It's that whole Truthiness thing, MAGA doesn't do

percentages. The numbers just feel right, yuh no waddi meen?

[CrispyQ]

2. This article needs to go viral!!!

The degree to which Americans are misinformed is just . . .

[albacore]

3. Cut to the chase... many Murikans have no fucking idea what they are talking about. nt

[3catwoman3]

8. "... many Murikans have no fucking idea what they are talking about."

On pretty much any topic, sad to say.

[Yavin4]

4. Most Americans live in isolated suburban communites. They're completely cut off from the outside world.

Their perception of the world is shaped primarily by the information content that they consume. Fox News talks about the "others" 24/7 which leads them to believe that there are more of the "other".

[usonian]

5. I have read some books on addictive behavior, whose patterns are mimicked by cults and criminal gangs to some extent.

Every damn one of them rings a bell with the maga cult. Too many to list, but for starters just a few:

• Projection
• Denial
• Self-Centeredness
• The illusion of control
• Dishonesty
• Taking an exception/outlier and making it the "rule" ... the "WHATABOUT ....?" line.
• Ethical Deterioration
• Fear
• Invalidating ideas and people
• Dualism - "For or against" thinking. No gray area.
• Greed
• Judgmentalism
• Crisis-Orientation. "There's a crisis", and if not, Create One. (added on edit)

And there are more.
You cannot cure a cult member's crazy deluded thinking.
Experienced therapists take years, and the person has to agree that they have a problem.
Otherwise, they believe: It's THEIR fault, not mine.

Some of the recovery mechanisms include a feeling of betrayal by the cult leader, or inability to hold the cult's contradictions in one's head any longer. I think that betrayal is a big reason.

And unlike many cults, the members of this one are heavily armed.

Peace. everyone. There is so much good to do for our friends, families and people in real need that shutting out the voluntarily deranged gives us more energy to organize and do good.

Friends and I used to call such people "psychic energy drains" and that's actually part of their strategy.
To maintain an illusion of control, "Owning the libs" makes them feel in control. Deny them that sick wish.

They will soon learn WHO owns WHOM. The hard way.

[Nevilledog]

6. Graphic

[WhiskeyGrinder]

7. I read an article years ago about good liberal white parents who wanted their kids to be in a "multicultural" school

environment but there was a specific percentage where the parents felt the mix was "too diverse" and it was about half of what the actual minority population of the neighborhood was.

[Basso8vb]

9. The republicans started to slash public school funding in the 70s and never stopped.

There's a reason we're collectively this stupid.

[OldBaldy1701E]

10. Dunning Kruger Syndrome.

This nation suffers from a massive case of it.

[ananda]

11. Very interesting.

I was a little off on some of them.

I had Blacks at 14%.

[ScratchCat]

12. I'd say a few are debatably low

Last I checked, blacks were 13.5%, but you get different figures over time and based upon how people identify I suppose.

The one about gun ownership simply looks like many people responded based upon statistics from 20 years ago. I'd argue that most people - especially gun owners - don't know that gun ownership levels have dropped over the past two decades. Its counterintuitive to people who's friends and family are mostly gun owners.

[orwell]

13. So how does Democracy survive...

...with this level of ignorance.

Quick answer...it doesn't.

[IronLionZion]

14. Maybe if the polled people were in NYC

but if it was nationwide, then is wrong with people? They think America is super diverse and still elected MAGA?

[boonecreek]

15. Do these people

have no idea what the U.S. population is? 30 percent live in New York City? That's over 103 million people. As K55f5r said above, MAGAs don't do percentages.

[cbabe]

16. Some can't visualize numbers or percentages. I challenged a friend to count snap receipients. 30% is how

many people in line at the grocery store. Making the statistics concrete. Count one two snap four.

She was shocked there were so many people.

Now count 40% kids are homeless.

[nowforever]

17. Right wing media

does endless fear mongering and has an endless supply of stories and images to reinforce these distorted views. It's called propaganda and when effectively done, it is a great manipulating tool. The survival instinct has now contorted itself into pure unadulterated greed the 'only me' mentality is the norm. The elite wealthy have forgotten anarchy will be the result and when there is no one to wash their boats, build their mansions, serve their food and protect all they have accumulated they will scream.... WHY???? I am very pessimistic about society surviving the election of this Orange Imbecile.

[JT45242]

18. I have been told in lots of workshops working with youth LGBTQ is 5 percent...

Transexual some where between 0.5 and 1.0%

But the point remains.

The stupidity of the American people is ridiculous.

As PT Barnum said. "No one lost money by underestimating the stupidity of the American people."

[ZonkerHarris]

19. A village full of idiots