Sky News Breaking: Zelenskyy suggests he's prepared to end Ukraine war in return for NATO membership

[Dennis Donovan]

Last edited Fri Nov 29, 2024, 02:43 PM - Edit history (2)

Sky News - Zelenskyy suggests he's prepared to end Ukraine war in return for NATO membership, even if Russia doesn't immediately return seized land

The Ukrainian president told Sky News's chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay NATO membership would have to be offered to unoccupied parts of the country in order to end the "hot phase of the war", as long as the NATO invitation itself recognises Ukraine's internationally recognised borders.

Friday 29 November 2024 18:04, UK

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has suggested a ceasefire deal could be struck if Ukrainian territory he controls could be taken "under the NATO umbrella" - allowing him to negotiate the return of the rest later "in a diplomatic way".

In an interview with Sky News's chief correspondent Stuart Ramsay, the Ukrainian president was asked to respond to media reports saying one of US president-elect Donald Trump's plans to end the war might be for Kyiv to cede the land Moscow has taken to Russia in exchange for Ukraine joining NATO.

Mr Zelenskyy said NATO membership would have to be offered to unoccupied parts of the country in order to end the "hot phase of the war", as long as the NATO invitation itself recognises Ukraine's internationally recognised borders.

He appeared to accept occupied eastern parts of the country would fall outside of such a deal for the time being.

"If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control," he said.

"We need to do it fast. And then on the [occupied] territory of Ukraine, Ukraine can get them back in a diplomatic way."

/snip

On edit:

Kyiv Independent - Zelensky suggests ending 'hot phase' of war in exchange for NATO membership without occupied territories

by Kateryna Denisova
November 29, 2024 9:31 PM

To end the "hot phase of the war," NATO would have to offer membership to Ukrainian territory under government control, with the invitation recognizing the country's internationally recognized borders, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with Sky News

"If we want to stop the hot stage of the war, we should quickly take under NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control. That's what we need to do first, and then Ukraine can get back the other parts of its territory in a diplomatic way," Zelensky said during the interview, which was published on Nov. 29.

According to the president, Kyiv has never considered such a proposal, since "no one has ever offered that to us officially."

Donald Trump's election has intensified uncertainty around Ukraine's war effort. He criticized U.S. military support provided to Ukraine by Joe Biden's administration. Some reports also indicate this would entail forcing Ukraine to cede territory and at least temporarily give up on its NATO accession plans.

Zelensky's latest remarks are somewhat at odds with his previous statements. He said that the signals of Ukraine's accession to NATO in parts is "nonsense," and Ukraine "will never exchange any status for any of our territories."

The president's comments to Sky News imply that territories currently occupied by Russia would not fall under the "NATO umbrella" in this scenario.

/snip

[MacKasey]

1. President Biden get it done!

[WarGamer]

5. Doesn't work that way... not that fast.

[jimfields33]

38. Finally, four years after this war, we may finally see an end.

[brush]

59. More like two years and about nine months.

[Deuxcents]

68. Way too long, but you're correct

[jimfields33]

75. Seems like forever.

[ananda]

55. Now!

Good idea!

[womanofthehills]

71. NATO is Putin's red line

Putin would never agree to that.

[ThePartyThatListens]

79. Why does he have to agree to anything?

It's not his country

[muriel_volestrangler]

83. The point of this would be to get Putin to stop attacking Ukraine

I don't think we could assume that if Ukraine stops firing anything into the parts of Ukraine that Russia currently occupies, or into Russia, Putin will immediately say "well, there's no point in firing into the rest of Ukraine now". This would have to be an agreed ceasefire, not just a unilateral halt in fighting by Ukraine alone.

[Alaninahammock]

2. Crazy

This is just Nutty.... How is Zelenskyy going to end Russia's aggression?... A NATO membership would result in all out war as well.

[delisen]

3. Several NATO countries are prepared

to greatly expand military aid to Ukraine if Putin does not negotiate an end.

[Alaninahammock]

11. NATO

I get that... but the US absolutely will not go along with that no matter who is president (Along with the sane members I would imagine). I'm pretty sure that those NATO countries advocating for it know this and are just grandstanding for appearances.

[mzmolly]

18. Why wouldn't the US go along?

[Alaninahammock]

23. WWIII

WWIII

[Mountainguy]

30. Which is why Russia wouldn't push into a NATO territory

They are nowhere near strong enough to face a war against NATO.

[mzmolly]

34. So we let Putin take Europe?

eom

[Alaninahammock]

37. No one said that

[Kingofalldems]

41. So exactly what are saying?

[Alaninahammock]

43. Nukes

I'm saying Putin is a blood thirsty tyrant with nukes... These nations want to help Ukraine but in the end only so far. a NATO membership may be that road too far. (Though I could be convinced of the partition for Putin to save face and still allow a NATO membership)

[Kingofalldems]

44. So once again--we should give up and genuflect before Putin?

[Alaninahammock]

45. I'm saying there is a line we will not cross

Do you disagree with that?

[wnylib]

47. In other words, Putin gets to keep the Ukrainian territory that

be stole by military force.

There will not be any negotiation that returns the Russian occupied areas to Ukraine. Putin will never agree to any land return.

[Alaninahammock]

53. Probably

Like it or not more often than not this is how things end.

[EX500rider]

48. What about nukes?

The United States, France, and the United Kingdom are NATO allies that have nuclear weapons, and together they are estimated to have around 4,223 nuclear warheads as of 2024.

I don't think Putin wants to die in a nuclear flash, no way he is firing off nukes to save face in Ukraine, he & all Russians would be shortly dead, no upside to that.

[Alaninahammock]

50. Is he a madman?

Is he a bloodthirsty madman or isn't he? If not then why haven't we stopped him already?... there is only one reason and thank God Biden knows better.

[EX500rider]

51. One can be bloodthirsty & yet not a madman

I don't think he is suicidal which him using nukes would be

[Alaninahammock]

52. We would have stopped him by now

If our leaders were as confident as you

[EX500rider]

54. Every time we cross one of his "red lines" nothing happens, all bluster

[Alaninahammock]

57. Oh I am aware of this

But if you haven't noticed he is starting to "up his game" in response with weapons he has held back on to this point... There will come a time when a person like Putin will have no choice, in his mind, but to show that he will not be pushed around.

But heck I could be wrong and hopefully we never find out.

Anyway we keep running in circles on this discussion so I will just leave it at that... That you for the banter.

[uponit7771]

77. Russian talking point that doesn't belong here

[EX500rider]

46. So Russian can't beat Ukraine but you think they will try & take on 32 more countries at the same time?

Russian military spending $100bn in 2023

In 2024, NATO members are collectively spending $1.47 trillion.

[Alaninahammock]

49. I'm saying

I'm saying he is still a madman with nukes that will NOT suffer that kind of humiliation. Why the the heck do you think we haven't flattened him by now?... It's not because we are afraid of his conventional military.

[delisen]

33. NATO is moving fast to fill the former US role

Europe is counting US for Zero . They know it's all up to them. Contain Putin now or they are all next after Ukraine.

The signal from the new Baltic/ Nordic military aid alliance, the signal from UK M16 head while in France. They have been planning for months in case Trump got back in office. They are ready,even eager, to act.

Putin's most recent big mistakes was bringing in N.Korea. A desperate move. European NATO is now in charge of its own defense and they see Putin as Hitler.

[Alaninahammock]

39. That's not how NATO works

NATO does not work that way

[Kingofalldems]

40. Got a link on that?

[Alaninahammock]

42. NATO

Well one of us is confused (Could always be me) but there are no independent and separate governing bodies of NATO. Sure separate countries in their own right... but they don't get to make decisions for NATO

[Emrys]

73. It probably is you

Last edited Fri Nov 29, 2024, 07:12 PM - Edit history (2)

If you pay attention to the international scene and try to lift your American blinkers for a minute, NATO members in Europe have been energized by the prospect of Trump's presidency and likely attempt to continue to lord it over NATO as if the US and he were the be-alls and end-alls. The prospect of a defensive grouping without the US is something already being contemplated and prepared for. Whether it's still called NATO (if Trump goes through with his threat to withdraw, which seems unlikely) or a coalition of the willing under another name, the mood is not one of acquiescence to what people suppose a Trump foreign policy will look like.

Trump has proposed Keith Kellogg as the US envoy to Russia and Ukraine. Kellogg has given a number of interviews in recent years where he's been candid about how he sees the options in terms of bringing an end to immediate hostilities. He may change his views in office, but he seems pretty grounded in what he's proposed, and I suspect he's likely to resign rather than be forced into a negotiating position he knows simply will not work.

He's proposed strongarming Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table using threats of withholding aid from Ukraine if it desn't negotiate, or arming Ukraine to the hilt if Russia refuses to negotiate. The chances of Russia under Putin agreeing to negotiate in good faith are vanishingly small, but that's a prospect that has to be entertained unless the idea of a negotiated settlement is off the agenda altogether - which may still be how this all pans out. At least there might be some sort of fragile ceasefire while the dust settles, but Russia doesn't have all the time in the world to stall - its economy is predicted to face near if not actual collapse by the middle of 2025, and its crumbling infrastructure is causing widespread unrest that could ignite.

He's countenanced the temporary acceptance by Ukraine of existing battle lines as conflict borders as a holding pattern in the hope that a less power-crazed and desperate despot than Putin might actually offer a negotiating partner in future. So his stance on that isn't far from what Zelensky's just suggested.

Kellogg hasn't expressly spoken about the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO, but that's probably because it's been seen as a non-starter since part of Ukraine's territory is under Russian occupation and involved in armed conflict. That didn't stop West Germany joining NATO in 1955 despite its having territorial disputes with East Germany and others at the time, nor the whole country being grandfathered in to NATO after reunification in 1990. Ukraine's accession would require a unanimous vote by existing members. As it stands, Hungary would be a definite no (though its upcoming elections could change that), Turkey probably the same, and Germany not so certain, not least because it's also facing a change of government, likely in favour of one that's even more supportive of Ukraine. But a number of NATO members and other countries are forging an alliance that might offer Ukraine at least some of the protection NATO membership might give. Coincidentally, Ukraine has also signed mutual defence cooperation pacts with a number of countries in the last couple of years.

Look at the alternative in a worst case - Ukraine falls, its resources, expertise and fighting-age population are absorbed into the Russian Borg imperial blob, and the NATO states bordering Russia are left even more insecure. Another alternative is that somebody would have to be responsible for policing the boundaries of any DMZ set up between Ukraine and Russia, a step back to Cold War days, and a long-term, perilous and costly commitment that few are likely to want to choose if at all avoidable.

Kellogg also dismisses out of hand Putin's threats of use of nuclear weapons as sheer bluster, not least because it's so severely outgunned. Argue with him if you want, but as things stand, he's going to have a key role unless the US abandons its strategic interests in Europe and withdraws from NATO.

[PortTack]

56. NATO officials have already stated that Ukraine will become a member when the war ends.

[Kingofalldems]

6. Should we give up?

[Alaninahammock]

17. Huh?

Huh?

[WarGamer]

7. No. NATO membership would be part of a deal with Russia ceding the Eastern half of the country.

[MayReasonRule]

9. Or Would It? I Am Confident That The War College Has Gamed Exponential Pertubations Of This Very Scenario

Last edited Sat Nov 30, 2024, 06:33 AM - Edit history (1)

My father was a member of the NSA's forerunner, the Army Security Agency.

The rub through is what those in charge decide to do because of, in spite of, or both because of and in spite of the informed conclusions reached through gaming the various perturbations of the problems at hand.

If the decision has to be made, I personally would much, much rather Biden's administration make that call.

What's your take?

[Disaffected]

36. Hardly.

Seems at first glance that it is not that bad a proposal - certainly a starting point.

Unoccupied under NATO umbrella and occupied as a demilitarized neutral zone but remaining part of Ukraine.

[brush]

64. Putin doesn't want that. He's gotten Crimea, a route to warm water all year, and other eastern Ukranian lands.

Not a bad deal for naked aggression that the world witnessed.

Ukraine gets NATO membership means a plus for both countries, and Putin who can't beat Ukraine, certainly won't take on all the NATO nations.

[WarGamer]

4. As I predicted...

[Kingofalldems]

12. You predicted Russia would not invade.

[WarGamer]

13. Can't be right every time...

[Mike 03]

15. You predicted that Ukraine wants to join NATO? NT

[WarGamer]

21. of course and that NATO membership would be part of a deal with Russia to end the war

Let me repeat...

The war will end with:

Ukraine ceding Donetsk region and Crimea to Russia permanently

Ukraine will apply to EU and the process will begin.

Ukraine will apply to NATO and the process will begin.

By 2030, Ukraine will be a full blown member of the EU and NATO

Investment will flow into Ukraine and the Western half of the country will prosper.

The Eastern half will look like the Eastern half of Estonia or any other Russian enclave.

[Alaninahammock]

28. I guess

I guess I could see this... It's the only way I could see Putin not escalating a NATO membership (Though I still don't know if he would go for that either)

[FirstLight]

29. will there be a wall? like east/west Berlin?

It staggers the mind to think that all the fighting and loss of the Ukrainian people would be for naught...

But I dont know how these things work. And Vlad has bigger designs, and the EU knows it. Kamala wasn't kidding when she said Poland would be next...

[WarGamer]

31. "Poland is next" is nonsense.

There is ONE major thing we've learned from this war.

Russia has very little power in a non-nuclear ground war in Europe.

Ukraine, let's be honest... isn't 20% the fighting force as Poland PLUS Poland has NATO membership.

Poland could single handedly push Russian forces back to Moscow if it weren't for the nuclear threat.

Putin isn't going to do shit.

They've lost too much money and political capital in this war.

They'll be more than happy to declare victory, get the sanctions lifted and rebuild their economy.

[brush]

67. Agreed. Putin would get Crimea and other eastern Ukainian territory.

Ukraine gets NATO membership which protests it from further Russian aggression.

[RubyRose]

70. Shame Russia would keep Crimea.

[WarGamer]

72. Look at a map...

Nearly every country on the planet has borders drawn by war.

It's the human condition, unfortunately.

[Xolodno]

74. Going to have to disagree with you a bit.

I think Putin is willing to continue this war all the way to the Dnipro, maybe even take the south all the way to Transdniestria and he has stated he might make another play at Russia's first capital, Kyiv. Then and only then he will be OK with the rest of Ukraine joining NATO as he doesn't see it as traditional Russian territory. But by then, Ukraine may not be viable as a country.

Short of that, any NATO membership will be a non starter. I remember Biden stating at the start of this war he wanted to put Ukraine in a position of strength in an eventual negotiation. Somewhere along the line, the idea became push Russia out of everything and join NATO, which was and is naive.

But I do agree that those saying Putin going after the Baltics and Poland is just, well, stupid. At his age, if he had any intention of doing so, he would have mobilized the entire country (something else that gets lost on many, he hasn't done so) and done it already.

[MayReasonRule]

16. I'm Pleased For The Decision To Potentially Be Guided By Biden's Adminstration

I cannot imagine that the incoming fascist in chief would handle it well.

[WarGamer]

22. doesn't happen that fast. It's a long process.

One can not become a member of NATO until fighting STOPS.

[speak easy]

63. "One can not become a member of NATO until"

all NATO members agree.

Hungary flirts with Putin and snubs NATO meeting
https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-viktor-orban-flirts-vladimir-putin-snubs-nato-meeting/

[Emrys]

76. Well, you've been all over the shop on Ukraine for the last couple of years,

so there was an even chance that some of what you typed might get within a ballpark of coming to pass.

On the other hand, an old proverb: Don't count your chickens before they're hatched.

[WarGamer]

87. I was sure wrong about the invasion... that's for sure.

[Mike 03]

14. This has been under discussion for quite some time.

I don't think there's anything shocking about Ukraine joining NATO. It is not a secret that they want this, and while they wouldn't be admitted immediately, Ukraine would be put on a fast track. It would not result in WWIII breaking out overnight.

Ukraine deserves it more than some current members.

[MayReasonRule]

19. I Wholeheartedly Agree

Here's to the Biden administration getting the opportunity to guide the call!

[WhiteTara]

20. I'll wait for confirmation.

One word -- Murdock

[Dennis Donovan]

24. Video at link of Zelenskyy saying it. n/t

[muriel_volestrangler]

26. Sky News (UK) is owned by NBC parent Comcast (nt)

[muriel_volestrangler]

25. I don't think Putin would be remotely interested

His first wish is to put something permanently between NATO and him. He'd hate the idea of a NATO border from Murmansk to the Black Sea (counting his satellite Belarus as completely under his control). He wants a powerless country next door. The gain of eastern Ukraine isn't so important - Crimea is a bit more symbolic, so gaining that would get him some nationalist kudos, but not enough to make giving in to NATO, which he has demonized for years, worth it.

[WarGamer]

27. Eastern Ukraine will be th ebuffer zone he's been after. He'll jump at the deal.

[DallasNE]

69. Putin Thinks He Has Unstoppable Weapons So None Of This Interests Him

This is about as 'hell no" as you can get.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-shuts-the-door-to-negotiations-with-us/ar-AA1uVacz?ocid=BingNewsSerp&cvid=d38c1f8b031649119c041b0a7c02f740&ei=64&fbclid=IwY2xjawG3E0ZleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHXumUTocSnpS_guN-J5Uirg3NOylRDiYCXiO1TigCHMweddk8RWGPviEUA_aem_IL7sMZI1FY7GX65HAA_0eA

[Mike Nelson]

32. It's the only workable...

... solution. Otherwise, Vlad will invade again an a couple years. But I'm not sure Vlad will agree... he feels Ukraine is already "part of Russia," and keeps invading as Ukraine gets mor chummy with EU and NATO.

[surfered]

35. Wow! Watch for the reaction from Hungary and Turkey

I’m no expert, but a lot of that “seized territory” will be littered with mines, ordinance and environmental issues that will be costly and lengthy to mitigate. Plus all the buildings have been destroyed from Russian artillery, then Ukraine artillery on Russian positions.

[Joinfortmill]

58. They've earned their membership.

[cab67]

60. wasn't one of the reasons Putin invaded -

- to preclude the expansion of NATO into Ukraine?

I have a hard time seeing Putin agreeing to this.

[HereForTheParty]

61. Z would not be offering this if Harris won

His arm is being twisted by Trump coming in

[peggysue2]

62. Zelensky is fully aware of who and what Trump is

In addition, I've read Ukrainian citizens have become increasingly war weary, with good reason. The destruction has been massive, deaths have mounted up and the endless uncertainty must be soul ripping. I've had a Ukrainian immigrant doing a number of house improvements lately. He and a friend just finished off a new shed for us. He left in 2010 because he couldn't stand the endless chaos. Sadly, he still has family there. His grandmother lives in the occupied area. The bitter irony, he said, is she survived the Nazis in WWII, only to end up trapped under Russian control.

Trump could easily serve Ukraine up on a silver platter for his BFF Vlad. This way, Zelensky ends the suffering, places protections into place and survives to fight another day.

Will Putin go for it? The NATO inclusion will stick in Putin's craw but Russia isn't making out very well either. Then again, Putin may wait two months for Trump to offer more than Zelensky could ever agree to.

Impossible, tragic situation.

[WarGamer]

81. recent poll... 56% of Ukrainians favor a negotiated end to the war. Only 30% favor forever war.

[alarimer]

65. Someone needs to take Putin out.

And render Russia totally irrelevant. If this goes throught, Putin essentially wins. Fuck him and fuck Russia. They should be permanent pariahs.

[meow2u3]

66. Ukraine shouldn't battle Russia alone

And why should Ukraine go it alone when they'd have about 30 allies on two continents to back them up?

[uponit7771]

78. This is reasonable and a gut call for Biden and Trump, if either say no then its the US holding the war open and not Z

[Fish700]

80. Hungary kept Sweden out for as long as they wanted.

I don't see Orban signing off on this. On the other side I have no children so a nuclear holocaust over Ukraine doesn't bother me that much considering the incoming administration. Go for it.

[Takket]

82. now that drumpf has been re-elected, the only deal Ukraine is getting will be European aide, if their lucky.

otherwise it is genocide at Russia's hands.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

84. Will "New Ukraine" be completely landlocked?

Does it lose all access to the Black Sea?

If so, it will be difficult to economically export grain.

[Peregrine Took]

85. I heard on Friday (NPR?) that by the "tens of thousands" Ukranian troops were deserting leaving whole sections

unprotected. Is this true? I havent' seen it anywhere else.

[Dennis Donovan]

86. Sounds like Russian propaganda

Numbers that large would get coverage. I haven't head anything about it.