The Guardian: The deep historical forces that explain Trump's win

[Dennis Donovan]

The Guardian - (archived: https://archive.ph/4XCmr ) The deep historical forces that explain Trump’s win

Our research shows that political breakdown, from the Roman Empire to the Russian revolution, follows a clear pattern: workers’ wages stagnate, while elites multiply



Peter Turchin
Sat 30 Nov 2024 06.00 EST

In the days since the sweeping Republican victory in the US election, which gave the party control of the presidency, the Senate and the House, commentators have analysed and dissected the relative merits of the main protagonists – Kamala Harris and Donald Trump – in minute detail. Much has been said about their personalities and the words they have spoken; little about the impersonal social forces that push complex human societies to the brink of collapse – and sometimes beyond. That’s a mistake: in order to understand the roots of our current crisis, and possible ways out of it, it’s precisely these tectonic forces we need to focus on.

The research team I lead studies cycles of political integration and disintegration over the past 5,000 years. We have found that societies, organised as states, can experience significant periods of peace and stability lasting, roughly, a century or so. Inevitably, though, they then enter periods of social unrest and political breakdown. Think of the end of the Roman empire, the English civil war or the Russian Revolution. To date, we have amassed data on hundreds of historical states as they slid into crisis, and then emerged from it.

So we’re in a good position to identify just those impersonal social forces that foment unrest and fragmentation, and we’ve found three common factors: popular immiseration, elite overproduction and state breakdown.

To get a better understanding of these concepts and how they are influencing American politics in 2024, we need to travel back in time to the 1930s, when an unwritten social contract came into being in the form of Franklin D Roosevelt’s New Deal. This contract balanced the interests of workers, businesses and the state in a way similar to the more formal agreements we see in Nordic countries. For two generations, this implicit pact delivered an unprecedented growth in wellbeing across a broad swath of the country. At the same time, a “Great Compression” of incomes and wealth dramatically reduced economic inequality. For roughly 50 years the interests of workers and the interests of owners were kept in balance, and overall income inequality remained remarkably low.



That social contract began to break down in the late 1970s. The power of unions was undermined, and taxes on the wealthy cut back. Typical workers’ wages, which had previously increased in tandem with overall economic growth, started to lag behind. Inflation-adjusted wages stagnated and at times decreased. The result was a decline in many aspects of quality of life for the majority of Americans. One shocking way this became evident was in changes to the average life expectancy, which stalled and even went into reverse (and this started well before the Covid pandemic). That’s what we term “popular immiseration”.

With the incomes of workers effectively stuck, the fruits of economic growth were reaped by the elites instead. A perverse “wealth pump” came into being, siphoning money from the poor and channelling it to the rich. The Great Compression reversed itself. In many ways, the last four decades call to mind what happened in the United States between 1870 and 1900 – the time of railroad fortunes and robber barons. If the postwar period was a golden age of broad-based prosperity, after 1980 we could be said to have entered a Second Gilded Age.

/snip

[LakeVermilion]

1. This is full of irony.

The amazing feat of having huge numbers of moderate income voters choosing to support the wealthy because they reject the system. As if the wealthy will change the system to benefit all.

[sop]

3. Such is the power of the propaganda constantly being put out by rightwing corporate media.

[True Dough]

2. A sea of

gullible deplorables.

[Timeflyer]

4. Immiseration--the act of making miserable.

Elite overproduction--concept of P. Turchan re: society producing too many potential elite members.

Good article. Helps explain some of the reasons we'll be stuck in hell for the foreseeable future. Can we summon the political and social will to turn this around?

[mahatmakanejeeves]

5. Looking at the camera, Frances Perkins. NT

[Cosmocat]

6. This is a major false conclusion

I am not questioning the data, it all seems very legit.

But this is yet another frame that ASSUMES people's votes are explained due to their "economic anxiety" in the face the fact that their votes VERY MUCH worked against their economic benefits, outside of those with a lot of $$$.

While the MANY people who voted for DT and Rs or those who sat it out and accepted the idea of these people being in charge may have said they voted for a better economy, they did so during a time when we actually DO have a good economy, and these same people are babbling about the border disaster, which is not a disaster, how the pandemic was fake, and increasingly rejecting vaccinations, how the elections have been rigged, how we need more christianity in our society while voting in the literally least christian human being imaginable, how DEMOCRATS are war mongers and only DT can keep us out of WWIII ... it goes on and on and on.

It was just part of the massive fables put out over many decades by the republican party and picked up by DT.

The reason this country is deteriorating is why Germany did in the early 1930s, we (not us, but collectively)have given in to fascism/authoritarianism. Same processes that have led to the other authoritarian states.

[Martin Eden]

12. Agree, except the last paragraph.

We are indeed sliding into fascism, but the conditions in Germany leading to the rise of Adolf Hitler versus the rise of Donald Trump are qualitatively different.

Germany had suffered a costly military defeat in 1918, made worse by the humiliating terms of the Versailles treaty which included huge reparations. Then the worldwide Depression struck. The German people endured economic hardships far beyond the pandemic downturn and inflation.

The American people had far less excuse to embrace a demagogue like Trump, especially after his mishandling of the pandemic and the remarkable recovery engineered by the Biden administration.

The difference in 21st century America is the growing share of the media landscape owned by rightwing propaganda, and algorithims on social media spreading disinformation.

IMO the biggest reason Trump won is that tens of millions of voters have been manipulated into believing things that simply are not true.

[Cosmocat]

29. Agreed!

mm

[Uncle Joe]

23. As 62% of the American people are living paycheck to paycheck how do they relate to a "good economy?"

The "good economy" might as well be in Saudi Arabia to them.



(snip)

The Paycheck-to-Paycheck Landscape

As of November 2023, 62% of consumers lived paycheck to paycheck, mirroring last year's statistics and slightly higher than last month. For those Americans, this means that they need their next paycheck to cover their monthly financial outflows. Among income brackets, 77% of consumers earning less than $50,000 annually lived paycheck to paycheck as of November 2023, as did 67% of those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 and 45% of consumers earning more than $100,000. These shares have also remained stable since last year, indicating that U.S. consumers, in the face of ongoing inflation, have adjusted their spending where they can and still see their financial obligations outpace their incomes.

The percentage of Americans living paycheck to paycheck varies by income bracket:

Less than $50,000: 77% live paycheck to paycheck
$50,000–$100,000: 67% live paycheck to paycheck
More than $100,000: 45% live paycheck to paycheck

(snip)


https://ir.lendingclub.com/news/news-details/2023/Nearly-60-of-Credit-Cardholders-in-the-U.S.-Live-Paycheck-to-Paycheck/default.aspx#:~:text=The%20Paycheck%2Dto%2DPaycheck%20Landscape,cover%20their%20monthly%20financial%20outflows.



This didn't happen overnight, but over near half a century with establishment policies from both parties trying to meet in some mythical center which has only funneled wealth to the very wealthiest.

If "government is the problem" and that's been the mantra since Reagan what would motivate anyone to make a distinction between them?

The primary motivations are either disillusionment; influencing people not to vote, or anger, and desperation with voting for disruption to the status quo.

[dpibel]

27. You mean like the great economy under Trump?

2019 was the peak year for Trump.

Motley Fool, 8/11/19:

The average American is struggling to make ends meet each month, with 59% of U.S. adults saying they live paycheck to paycheck, according to a recent survey from Charles Schwab. Furthermore, nearly half of survey participants say they carry credit card debt and struggle to keep up with the payments.

That, apparently, is what people are remembering when they say the economy useta be so great!

I'm not sure there's been a time in my long life when there was not a huge chunk of America living paycheck to paycheck.

[Uncle Joe]

28. The point of my post was that it has been going on for decades.

When people become disenchanted, they don't vote, period.

When people become angry, they're more likely to support disruption of the status quo, and that's what *rump represented.

We're the only major advanced nation that doesn't care enough about its' own citizens to keep them from going bankrupt when they become sick. We're the most dog eat dog society of the world's advanced nations in deference to our oligarchs.

Given enough time any status quo moral injustice will reach an end time or breaking point.

[Cosmocat]

30. Bingo

Nm

[Cosmocat]

31. Bingo

Nm

[Cosmocat]

32. As another poster correctly noted

This has been the case for a long darn time.

Why are Ds held accountable when they more so work for policies that work to secure middle and lower class economic interests, like consumer protections while people have been programed to believe that Rs are "better on the economy" when rs relentlessly drive tax cuts to the rich, wlattack consumer protections and labor rights, etc.

[Uncle Joe]

33. That was my point in both posts, this is decades in the making, and as

I alluded to in my post#28 our nation is dominated by oligarchs

"We're the only major advanced nation that doesn't care enough about its' own citizens to keep them from going bankrupt when they become sick. We're the most dog eat dog society of the world's advanced nations in deference to our oligarchs."

The oligarchs own both the corporate media, and the major commercial purchasers, so their message is what dominates the public sphere of information. The Internet was beginning to challenge that information monopoly and that's why Musk bought Twitter.

The corporate media almost never talk about class, or dysfunctional wealth disparity, they focus on GOP talking points ie: "the Republicans are better on the economy" Republican tax cut proposals that predominately benefit the already mega-wealthy don't get anywhere near the scrutiny of how will it be paid for vs investment policies that benefit the middle class, poor or the nation in general.

The oligarchs will always prefer Republicans because the GOP doesn't believe in any form of regulation, (except for civil, and individual rights) or anti-monopolization, the Republicans still believe that "We the People" is the problem, so de facto they're corporate supremacy's best friend.

The Democratic Party needs to have bold policy measures and messaging to counter act their propaganda machine. Half stepping it or becoming Republican light simply won't cut it anymore.

[MayReasonRule]

7. Delusion And Malevolence Are The Deep Historical Forces

The Machiavellian have always led the Darwin Award Winners down the proverbial Primrose Path.

They still do.

Our country's long and sordid history of rejecting factual evidence instead enshrining 'closely held 'beliefs'' a.k.a. delusion as the rule of law is precisely what has brought us to today.

Otherwise, if factual evidence defined the rule of law we would not have already lost the freedoms that we've lost and would not be faced with the prospect of losing still more freedom.


Fuck fascists.

May reason rule.

[malaise]

8. Neo-liberalism was the death of the social good

That is all

[Blue_Tires]

9. People are really overthinking this...

[underpants]

10. Excellent read.

Elite overproduction can be likened to a game of musical chairs – except the number of chairs stays constant, while the number of players is allowed to increase. As the game progresses, it creates more and more angry losers. Some of those turn into “counter-elites”: those willing to challenge the established order; rebels and revolutionaries such as Oliver Cromwell and his Roundheads in the English civil war, or Vladimir Lenin and the Bolsheviks in Russia. In the contemporary US we might think of media disruptors such as Tucker Carlson, or maverick entrepreneurs seeking political influence such as Elon Musk alongside countless less-prominent examples at lower levels in the system. As battles between the ruling elites and counter-elites heat up, the norms governing public discourse unravel and trust in institutions declines. The result is a loss of civic cohesiveness and sense of national cooperation – without which states quickly rot from within.

[surfered]

11. Time again to Bust the Trusts

[Joinfortmill]

13. Well, that about says it. It's a mess out there. Buckle up

[Icanthinkformyself]

14. Left unsaid

is the treason committed by Republican presidential campaigns since Nixon. America's decline has more do with that overlooked fact than any other. It is what gave the GQP the power to screw the pooch.

[usonian]

15. Fascist playbook

Watch it like the first 30 plays being scripted in football.

People hate government because the GOP for many decades stonewalled any legislation meant to help people.

It was deliberate.

And they use bigotry and lies to fool the morans into voting against their own welfare.



Don't overthink it.

[TheDemsshouldhireme]

16. A complete pile of garbage

So Trump and Musk aren't part of the 1 percent? So Trump and Thiel and Musk want to turn off the wealth pump? Sorry not buying most of this article. While I can agree with criticisms of neo-liberalism, I found most of this article a bunch of bullshit.

[Fish700]

21. Your problem is that you can't think like an imbecile! Gotta channel the MAGA.

It is tough!

[nowforever]

17. we didn't win

The media which is controlled by the wealthy produced propaganda which allowed a criminal with no morals to pass as a viable candidate. The elite rich flooded the various forms of media with biased and corrupt news that made sure to reach their select population. Greed rules these people and I believe now will lead to destruction of civilization. The greedy will suffer and hope they face justice in the most painful of ways.

[RainCaster]

18. He left out one important thing: yellow journalism

The large amount of our country who accepts the lies from conservative media and cannot see the lies are against their own best interest.

[Joinfortmill]

19. Please read, people.

[PATRICK]

20. It has always been sickening

but recent pathetic bragging by individuals that they voted for Trump(some saying they actually despised him (if that is to be believed and it is, in part at least) has been grimly illuminating. It also matches my entire life experience. I was going to post the simple point in less studied terms, but yes, all history, all human existence seems consistent.

ALL hurt, fearful and threatened individuals slouch toward the "other guy" and most typically the evil that boldly manipulates this trend. It is the stupid economy. Supposed great Dem victories of the past usually stem from being the recipients of economic suffering under the predecessor. Sacrifice in war, depression, recession, COVID, tax hikes, anything can breed the knee-jerk "revolt" which is just a switch from one to the other, this type of voting just ignorant and angry. Of course, not all, just a deplorable huge number of ill-informed
victims of long term evils. With a straight, happy face, union members(disgruntled) friends of immigrants or actual immigrants themselves bragged how things will go better under the Beast. Utter idiocy with their very jobs at stake and economic disaster more quick and certain. Underneath: misery, resentment and total success of a fueling MSM and social media mood that does much more than reflect the sentiment. Fear itself favors evil. Resentment here on DU is not very encouraging either. The human condition is on an anxious seesaw between poverty and wealth with corruption of the spirit and mind weighing on both ends.

The enthusiastic Democratic supporters that throng here have almost zero impact on this type of voting mass, especially concerning social justice issues which do no more than irritate and divide a huge chunk of that populace. Going for the New Bill of Rights by Roosevelt would be a start, but then there is that big money problem, isn't there? That money that has the dead future and the tortured present locked up. Not enough has been done anyway to merely protect the vote.

[Fish700]

22. It is an interesting read and I am somewhat convinced. My pet theory is a lot of people have it too good, got bored,

...and set everything on fire because being relatively content goes against human nature.

On the other hand, even though the idea of a limited amount of seats existing for two groups of diametrically opposed elites to battle over seems simplistic, it explains why some rural farmer knows who George Soros is (according to the propaganda created by the elites seeking those seats that is spread by weasels like Tuckems) and why that moron thinks that Soros is going to unleash an army of femboys dressed in catgirl outfits to overun Merca.

Getting the rubes to think that the GOP is not the party of the elites (at least the ones not in power) and creating disdain for those with hard-earned competence (the Deep State) is crucial in creating an environment where dumbasses want to execute Dr. Fauci was quite the operation.

It is hard to argue that Nancy Pelosi isn't an elite, there are many posts per day on Reddit about how she is using inside information to make a killing in the stock market (there is more than one app that tracks the stock trades of people in congress.) The DNC needs to convince Americans that the current crop of elites who represent the liberal-democratic order established after the defeat of the Axis powers in WWII are on the right side of history. Putin, Xi, Modi and others think that order needs to be replaced by authoritarianism and that is why they make such an effort to convince the rubes that the elite are out to get them.

The bottom line is that the world has always been run (or at least they tried) by groups of elites. We need to support the groups that are most aligned with the ideals of liberal Western democracy.

[andym]

24. Essay is a bit over the top, but it rightly points out the ongoing realignment of the working class with the GOP

Trump even got 45% of households with Union members.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1535307/presidential-election-exit-polls-share-votes-union-membership-us/

By income:
under 30K-- Trump 46% Harris 50% (minimum wage workers favored harris but only by 4%)
30-49K -- Trump 53% Harris 45% (Trump wins big in what was once Democratic Party voters)
50-99K -- Trump 51% Harris 46% (Trump wins in the heart of the middle class)
100-199K -- Trump 47% Harris 51% (Harris wins the ~10%)
200K-up -- Trump 45% Harris 51% (Harris wins the upper middle class)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1535295/presidential-election-exit-polls-share-votes-income-us/

How could this be happenning?
First, Trump actually has middle-class folks believing he cares about them through his anti-elitist ramblings (contradicted by the presence of the richest man campaigning for him).

Much of the working class is not excited by the cultural/social policies of the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, which the GOP uses to their advantage. Right-wingers in Europe follow a similar playbook. Think back even to the 70's and fictional union member Archie Bunker who loved Nixon and Reagan because of their conservative social policies. Norman Lear, the quintessential liberal, caught lightning in a bottle with Archie because Archie reflected a portion of working-class America that existed and persists even to this day, and not all with the extreme prejudices of Archie, but with at least some resistance to social change. Fortunately, the social changes of the 60's and 70's have been mostly accepted and integrated so those will not be reversed.

[DFW]

25. Some rather broad generalizations, I find

He ignores that the administrations if Clinton, Obama and Biden were periods of relative prosperity, compared to Bush I, Bush II, and Trump I. Not everyone rode the gravy train, obviously, but even those living paycheck to paycheck WERE getting that paycheck. Unemployment sank when the Democrats were running things. Those who were not getting a paycheck declined in number. The masses in France in 1789 and Russia in 1917 were having serious mass hunger issues. We are not. We the people set up food banks, soup kitchens, etc. Not some Republican “Christian” charity, but popular initiative.

It’s easy to say, look what happened to the Roman Empire, or look what happened to Germany in 1933, but it’s never that simple. One thing postwar Germany learned from the collapse of the Weimarer Republik was not to let tiny fringe parties have parliamentary representation if they got under 5% of the vote. The Weimarer Republik gave seats to every nutcase movement that could get a few thousand party goers to vote them in. It’s as if Jill Stein were given a Senate seat because 40,000 Americans nationwide voted for her. The Reichstag never got anything done, and the National Socialists (Nazis, for short) said, “we will!” Forty-two per cent of the German voters decided to give them the chance. Clinton, Obama and Biden got plenty done. It took Republican control of the media, and probably some serious Russian and Chinese internet involvement, to convince half the country that they didn’t really.

If you oversimplify, you get it wrong.

[bucolic_frolic]

26. Vulture capital union-busting began in the late 1960s

They were dubbed turnaround specialists. Buy a company, fire workers, streamline operations and product lines, and sell off the now-profitable carcass. They would do this again and again.