Democrats have a Florida problem

[In It to Win It]

POLITICO

MIAMI — National Democrats are grappling with an identity crisis. It’s even worse in Florida.

For those who’d been in denial, the 2024 election proclaimed Florida as a red state. The party got romped up and down the ticket, and many of the same factors that affected the rest of the U.S. were magnified here: Voters were deeply concerned about immigration, inflation and the economy, and Republicans received strong support from Hispanics.

Yet Florida is poised to become even more powerful, both in President-elect Donald Trump’s Washington and in the national electorate in the decade to come as the state grows.

If national Democrats ignore the trends in Florida then they may very well be writing their own obituary, party strategists in the state say.

“If you want to elect presidents from 2032 on, we have to start winning states that we are losing,” said Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist who successfully helped former President Barack Obama win Florida twice. National Democrats would need to invest in Florida and other southern states because it would otherwise take a “crazy set of circumstances to win Congress or the presidency,” he added.

Population growth leading up to 2030, when the next census and reapportionment take place, could deliver even more congressional seats — and Electoral College votes — to Florida, Texas and other Republican-friendly states, while Democratic-leaning behemoths of New York and California are poised to lose ground. The bottom line? It may not be possible for Democrats in future presidential cycles to get to 270 electoral votes without reversing their fortune in the South.

[Skittles]

1. Florida has a republican problem

[modrepub]

5. Highest...

Insurance rates, highest inflation rates and on and on. It's pretty obvious Republican policies are not working for FL. You have to forcefully tell the locals, it ain't Democrats (the boogie man) in far off places causing your problems, it's the terrible choices you've make at the ballot box that have made you miserable.

And also, Democrats really need to stop trying to help people who don't want it. If your kid/friend has a massive substance abuse problem, you don't keep providing them money/support to feed their habit.

[Frank D. Lincoln]

2. A new Howard Dean type might do the trick.

To fix this situation for the Democrats, I think the answer might be to get someone modeled after Howard Dean to lead the DNC with an updated fifty-state strategy designed for the current political landscape.

[red dog 1]

9. What "actions" do you recommend we take?

[Mariana]

20. It's probably impossible to win Florida for the foreseeable future.

It's the biggest MAGAt magnet in the country by far. Republican voting retired Boomers have been pouring into the state for years, from all over the country.

[Polybius]

31. I don't think we can win there without drastically changing some of our positions

Way too many Republicans have moved there to compete.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. Florida is one of several states where deportations will impact the economy the most. Agri and tourism hit hard. . . nt

[intheflow]

6. Are people still flocking to Florida?

Everyone I’ve ever known who moved there, moved there to live by the ocean. But that was before climate change and accompanying insurance rate hikes. Is it just that existing Floridians are popping out boodles of babies?

[Elessar Zappa]

12. Florida's fast growing, I believe.

And I think most moving there are conservatives (but I have no stats to back that up).

[In It to Win It]

34. I saw an article maybe last year that said the majority of people moving to Florida leaned Republican

If I find that article, I'll link it.

It was interesting piece. It also tracked where people were coming from by their old driver's license came from when they traded it for a Florida license.

[EX500rider]

13. As of April 1, 2023, Florida's population was estimated to be 22,634,867. This is a 5.1% increase from the 2020 Census.

Florida was the fastest-growing state in the country from 2021 to 2022, the first time since 1957.

Florida's population growth is primarily due to people moving to the state from other parts of the United States or abroad. Deaths have outpaced births in Florida since late 2019.

[intheflow]

15. I have never, ever seen the appeal of Florida.

Maybe on a coast, though hurricanes and flooding, but at least you’ll get a breeze instead of the still, stagnant, unbearably humid, mosquito- and gator-infested inland areas. Plus, DeSatan and Deliverance. Yikes.

[EX500rider]

16. Certain parts have their appeal

?h=eb07a09a&itok=xe40Irr2

[intheflow]

17. As I said, the coast.

But I lived on the Mississippi coast for a bit, and while the cypress swamps are pretty to paddle through, I refer you back to my comments about mosquitoes and gators. Nope, nope, nope!

[EX500rider]

18. Actually the springs will be inland..and gators don't like cold or clear water

?itok=AeS7sGeS

[Polybius]

32. Some of us hate breezes

I personally prefer zero wind.

[JanMichael]

7. Is this a case of internal migration plus aging?

When I first moved to Florida in the mid 80's it was fairly liberal. Hell it seemed like pot was legal even though it wasn't. It was laid back and the SE. counties ruled the mood. Sure the inland more rural areas sucked ass and had kkk fuckers out in the open but it didn't feel that way in the urban places. I didn't love it but can't say I didn't like much of my time there.

Even through the 90's there was Walk'n Lawton Chiles.

But now? It smells like Orban-lite. Once the repujes got power they consolidated it. New College in Sarasota has had its super smart hippy theme liquidated. I am certain that deSatan has perverted the State Local relationships and courts and everything else. They are not lazy.

Then I think that over the last 8 years the state has been to knuckle dragging conservatives like a porch light to bugs. The internal migration.

I think I will go look the data up to see what the hell has happened over the last decades

[red dog 1]

8. K&R

[lame54]

10. The U.S. has a Florida problem

[WarGamer]

11. Democrats are pushing their own base OUT of the Party.

FAFO.

Blame folks like Liz Cheney and the Lincoln Project.

[In It to Win It]

14. IMO it seems like Dems push out its moderates as well, like Joe Manchin

I don't see how we can expand our senate map and electoral college map unless we embrace all parts of the left from the Joe Manchin-type moderates to the Bernie Sanders and AOC-type progressives.

[Celerity]

22. Manchin and Sinema were not 'moderates', they were wreckers extraordinaire. They helped (along with some of the House

Problem Solvers) to gut over $5.1 trillion out of $6.1 trillion in new spend from Biden's 2 major Infrastructure bill frameworks (tossing massively crucial, vital programmes in the bin, ones that would have had truly helped us defeat Trump in 2024).

They also blocked the two large voter rights/voter protection bills, both of which, if they had passed, would have not only aided defeating Trump and many Rethugs, but would have finally started the push-back against the decades of scurrilous voter suppression and RW gerrymandering that has rocket-fuelled the Republican Party in its dark rise.

[In It to Win It]

23. And the ACA would have had a public option if it were not for Joe Lieberman. It's politics.

Ok, they weren't onboard with everything. They caucused with Dems. They vote with Dems more often than not. Without them, we would have no majority. We don't need to agree on everything, but enough to make progress. An inch of progress is better than nothing.

Sure, they wrecked some things but for the things Biden was able to accomplish, he did it with their votes. We take the wins where we can. We won't get purists from every state.

[Nixie]

25. This should all be so obvious by now. It's very strange that

there is nothing learned from multiple losses of their purity standards. The country doesn’t care about the purity crowd. It’s just bad politics at this point to continue beating purity dead horses.

[Nixie]

24. Yes, and it's obvious the country will not be voting for

far left policies anytime soon, so why keep spouting alienating wish lists that will never be reality. The result has been to have Republicans dictate what your reality will be, which certainly isn’t progressive.

[Blue_Tires]

36. Manchin pushed his own fucking self out

[In It to Win It]

39. Then, I'll rephrase. Dems weren't doing a great job of incentivizing him, and people like him, to stay

[Blue_Tires]

40. Incentive? He obstructed Biden's agenda for six months

And every time one of his "concerns" was addressed, he'd magically create another... What fucking incentive did he deserve for all his shameless grandstanding?

Say what you will about Trumpers, but at least they understand when a strict party line vote is called for...

[Blue_Tires]

37. Excuse me?

[BannonsLiver]

19. Typical Politico

They might as well have written Democrats have an Alabama, Louisiana, North Dakota problem because politically they all behave basically the same. In other words, it’s not breaking news Dems aren’t competitive in blood red states like Florida.

[msongs]

21. democrats do not need florida. ignore it nt

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

29. We need something in the south after 2030

Because as it looks right now, enough Electoral votes are going to shift away from blue states to red states that the blue wall will no longer matter. The Republicans could still win if they lose all 3 states.
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/big-changes-ahead-voting-maps-after-next-census]

In 2024, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris could have won the Electoral College by winning the states she carried, Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (Nebraska allocates some electoral votes by district), plus the so-called Blue Wall battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

By 2032, that strategy would no longer work. Given the shift of electoral votes to the South, even if a Democrat in 2032 were to carry the Blue Wall states and both Arizona and Nevada, the result would be only a narrow 276–262 win.

[Blue_Tires]

41. Georgia...

[buzzycrumbhunger]

26. Lawton Chiles is spinning in his grave...

and Charlie Crist certainly fumbled the ball. From then on, Voldemort and DeathSatan have fucked us royally.

[Joinfortmill]

27. Maybe. My take is the problem is not a place.

It's a group. And it's called GenX. The children of the civil rights era Boomers are not the idealists their parent's were. They are motivated by money and status. Just my take, folks. Don't beat me up too much.

[snowybirdie]

28. Can anyone agree

That some folks like Florida and some don't? Why do folks try and bash others' choices? If someone here gave glowing responses to say North Dakota, I'd never deride their choice. Were all different and not enemies.

[elocs]

30. Republicans getting strong support from Hispanics is like Colonel Sanders getting strong support from chickens.

How can they be so blind? It's just hard to believe.

[Jit423]

33. America has a Trump/MAGA problem.

[Blue_Tires]

35. Florida has a Florida problem, not me...

[Blue_Tires]

38. It's not the fault of Dems if Florida wants to support a lying criminal

Unless Politico is suggesting we use all the illegal deceitful tactics Trumpers are famous for...