Are Russian Sanctions Working?

[applegrove]

Are Russian Sanctions Working?

January 2, 2025 at 6:55 am EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2025/01/02/are-russian-sanctions-working/

"SNIP................

New York Times: “Predictions in the early months of the war that economic restrictions would soon undermine President Vladimir Putin’s regime or reduce the ruble to “rubble” did not pan out. Mr. Putin remains entrenched in the Kremlin, and his forces are inflicting punishing damage on Ukraine and gaining on the battlefield.”

“Yet the idea that economic sanctions could bring a quick end to the war was always more a product of hope than a realistic assessment, said Sergei Guriev, a Russian economist who fled the country in 2013 and is now the dean of the London Business School.”

“A better measure of success, Mr. Guriev said, is to ask whether sanctions hampered Moscow’s ability to wage war effectively. And the answer to that, he and several other analysts argue, is yes.”

................SNIP"

[Omnipresent]

1. Sanctions don't seem to be blunting Putin's sword for war.

Nor is the cancer Putin is to be supposed to be dying from.
We keep being fed fake news, because none of it pans out.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. Sanctions hurting Russia & blunting its war effort, some. But cancer stuff is no better than fake even if not fake. . nt

[Amishman]

3. If properly enforced, the sanctions would end the war in about six months

Russia is increasingly dependent on China for drones and electronics, Iran for drones, N. Korea for men and munitions.

If Russia loses the ability to pay, those supply lines dry up and Russia's military implodes.

[Omnipresent]

5. I know what you mean..

We don’t even want to think of anyone, even a ruthless dictator as getting cancer and having to go through that ordeal.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

9. Not what I mean at all. Either interpretation of your post. Not my meaning. . . . . nt

[Omnipresent]

12. Huh?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

13. No. I mean the cancer story is likely fake and if it isn't then it is at best a rumour reported in tabloids

The rumours reported in tabloids haven't panned out so far and thus are unlikely to be true any time soon, though Putin is going to die at some point.

So, rumours or fake, either way it doesn't much matter since it can't be depended on or acted on or used in reasoning about Putin or Russia.

[Omnipresent]

14. I remember Rachel reporting on his cancer more than a year ago.

I guess her sources for information are dicey at times.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

15. Depends how she phrased it; how much factual weight she attributed to it. I remember cancer rumours Mar 2022. . . . nt

[Omnipresent]

16. Rachel can go into great detail on a story.

Many times she will tell a story that will unexpectedly lead into her main story.

[ck4829]

4. Would sanctions really punish a regime already steeped in corruption and terrorism?

[LetMyPeopleVote]

6. Putin has basically destroyed and exposed the weakness of his military

A smaller country has inflicted horrible losses on Putin's military

Link to tweet

[GoCubsGo]

18. When you have to rely on North Korea for cannon fodder, you're not winning.

The same goes with having to empty out your prisons, and promising debt relief to your citizens, in exchange for enlisting. Never mind that they never bothered to ascertain that their equipment was maintained and in good repair, which much of it was/is not. The same goes for the spare parts. Invading Ukraine was an epic blunder on Pootie's part.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

7. The Russian Rubel is basically worthless

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[maxsolomon]

8. What was the exchange rate prior to the invasion?

What is the exchange rate to China's currency? Iran's?

[DFW]

10. If my archives are correct

About 76.5 Rubles to the dollar in January, 2022.

Now around 113.5 to the dollar, so it takes 50% more rubles to buy a dollar now. And that's just the supposed international market. When I was there last, you could always get a better rate on the open markets (though that is forbidden, so beware of someone approaches you and offers it).

[harumph]

11. Silly premise. Of course sanctions are working

about as well as can be REASONABLY expected. They aren't a total solution - that much should have been obvious.
Typically people that say sactions haven't worked have an agenda IMO. Their argument rests on alleging that unrealistic goals
for sanctions were the consensus opinion and then say "Look! The sanctions aren't working!" It's a straw man argument.

[Johonny]

17. Russian space program in danger of falling behind New Zealand

Yeah, they are pouring a lot into that war and it is diminishing other expensive things. They barely beat New Zealand in launches last year. They are now way behind the US and China.