For 125 years, Democrats win the White House when...

[Pototan]

Last edited Fri Jan 24, 2025, 06:17 PM - Edit history (1)

one of two things happen. In almost every case, the Dems win election to the White House (incumbents don't count) when the Republican base is split by a viable third-party candidate (1912 and 1992) or when there is a catastrophic event created or worsened by a Republican President and policies (1932, 2008, 2020). We seldom take over from a stable Republican administration (1960 is an exception).

I think, unfortunately, there will be a catastrophic event during the next 4 years. God help us.

[William769]

1. I'll put it in the next 4 months.

[Wiz Imp]

8. I wouldn't be surprised if it is 4 weeks.

[RockRaven]

2. "...there will be *A* catastrophic event..."

Oh, you optimist!

[Layzeebeaver]

3. may that ever be...

Stroke
Heart Attack
Fall
Congestive anything

Trump is only a part of the problem, but not having that that one problem makes addressing the other problems a bit more accessible..

[rampartd]

5. only trump has the mass to curve reality itself

i think vance and the others can, at least, be held to some kind of objective facts.

[J_William_Ryan]

4. "...there will be a catastrophic event during the next 4 years."

Trump’s election was a catastrophic event.

[Grokenstein]

6. The scumbag administration is the catastrophe.

Everything that follows is just its symptoms.

[Mister Ed]

7. Like many, I fear the catastrophic event may be a Reichstag fire. n/t

[SocialDemocrat61]

9. The Republican base wasn't split in 96

Bill Clinton was an incumbent President running against a weak Republican challenger. Ross Perot pulled from both democrats and Republicans equally so he wasn't a factor.

[Pototan]

10. My mistake. I meant 1992

Corrected on edit.

[SocialDemocrat61]

11. It wasn't split in 92 either

That’s a complete myth and GOP talking point to de-legitimize Bill Clinton’s election. Perot drew evenly from both Bush and Clinton voters. https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/austin/news/2019/07/09/ross-perot-often-credited-for-costing-bush--92-election

[tritsofme]

12. Thank you, I was going to make this same point.

[SocialDemocrat61]

13. You're welcome

I hate when GOP talking points are repeated here.