I know many, especially here... are upset about the situation in Ukraine.

[WarGamer]

Last edited Sat Feb 15, 2025, 04:49 PM - Edit history (1)

But it's the ending it was always going to be.

The Ukraine War is the largest war in Europe in 80 years.

After WW2, the global map changed extensively.

After ANY major war, across the globe... borders change.

After WW2, families who lives for multiple generations in Eastern Germany, the "Sudatenland" were moved out by the Soviets and sent to Russian work camps. Non-combatants, moved to camps... unreal.




Here's the actual summary of the Ukraine War. No puffery from Ukraine or Russian sources or online "experts" wishcasting about the war.

1) Russia surprised many by actually launching the invasion. Time will tell why the negotiations happening pre-war failed.

2) Russia badly miscalculated the resolve to fight from the AFU. Early combat mauled the Russians.

3) Ukraine telegraphed their Fall 2022 counter offensive too far in advance. They waited for heavy Western reinforcements to arrive including German and American main battle tanks and IFV's like the Bradley. The counter offensive failed because the Russians had ample time to reinforce and dig in. They built extensive defensive positions that the AFU was unable to bypass or destroy.

4) Since the failure of the counter offensive in the winter of 22... Russia has gained territory almost monthly.

5) Everything that the West has done to help Ukraine has made the war more bloody but hasn't changed the front lines.

6) Ukraine is running out of soldiers.

7) Russia has caught up with Ukraine and surpassed them in their use of drones, including the new fiber optic controlled drones that can't be jammed.

8) The AFU incursion into Kursk was a Pyrrhic victory at best. They took their best, most effective combat units from the front lines in Luhansk and Donetsk and moved them to the invasion force. Today, they've been mostly pushed out of the region, holding less than half the territory they once did.

9) The war is already over. The only question now is how many more will die and what will negotiations produce/




That's reality. Many won't like it. The neocons certainly don't like it. The MIC certainly doesn't like it and those illicitly profiting in theater don't like it either.

Reality is, the borders of the world are shaped by war. Want to look at the border of the USA? Anywhere in Europe?

At this point, Zelenskyy will negotiate. He's looking for a deal that leaves Ukraine in better shape than before the war.

He's going to have to give territory... because Ukraine lost the war to this point. That's the way of the world.

Here's what he's thinking. If he can end up with a Ukraine that's 30% smaller but 3x more wealthy and independent... there will be statues of him in the City Square, but there are sticking points.

Putin wants Ukraine to be unarmed and without security guarantees.

I think this is crucial. Negotiations MUST include security guarantees from European allies and the US.

Negotiations must include financial involvement from the West to help rebuild.

With time... I think Ukraine will be successful like the EU

[Silent Type]

1. Not pleasant, but it needs to end. I remember reading here as war started that it would end with Ukraine losing

territory, particularly that occupied by Russian speaking, aligned regions.

I hate that trump might get credit, but he's going to take credit for whatever happens anyway, good or bad.

[Mister Ed]

2. Re: "Negotiations MUST include security guarantees from European allies and the US."

Ukrainians are painfully aware how little those security guarantees can mean. After the breakup of the USSR, Ukraine gave up its formidable nuclear arsenal in exchange for security guarantees from the US, the UK, and Russia.

Had they not done so, I doubt they would have suffered this bloody invasion.

[newdeal2]

8. Yeah, those guarantees aren't worth much. Especially with a Trump (or Vance) administration that tears up treaties

[mitch96]

11. Not worth much is right..The 1994 Trilateral agreement said the west would protect Ukraine if they gave up

all their nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.. Well well well how much did the west protect Ukraine when it was attacked?? Nada, bupkis zilch..No wonder Ukraine is gun shy about these "agreements"..
m

[BeyondGeography]

3. Putin will never accept that last bit

The part, you know, about Ukraine EXISTING.

I live to be surprised but I don’t see these “negotiations” going anywhere. Nothing short of total capitulation and a puppet “government” will be acceptable to Putin and I suspect that is what Ukraine expects to hear when they get to the table.

Oh, and what about reparations? You know, for all the unwarranted destruction inflicted on Ukraine by Russia. Would Putin ever even admit to that being an issue? As if Russia would fork over any funds to be spent on a sovereign Ukraine over which they have no control and is defended by the West.

This situation is disgusting.

We’ll see if Trump is anything more than Putin’s wingman in these talks. We hold several hundred billion dollars in Russian assets, Will we tell Vlad that money goes to rebuilding Ukraine? I doubt it. And if I’m right these talks will go nowhere.

[TnDem]

15. re: victory

Many people seem to forget that it has not been that long ago that Russia and Ukraine wore the exact same uniform, fought for the same flag, and had for many decades.

[Tommy Carcetti]

23. Oh, fuck that.

Ukraine was oppressed under the Soviet Union--and the Russian empire before that--for centuries.

They were never willing partners with Russia. They were always subservient.

[TnDem]

25. re: Ukraine

Portions of Ukraine did oppose the Soviet Union during WW2 and fight with the Nazi's... These were known as the Cossack's.

In fact, the German SS had several divisions of Ukrainian SS troops late in the war...Tens of thousands of Ukrainians also fought for the USSR AGAINST Germany, stating that Ukraine was always "subservient" to Russia is not true...It wasn't that simple.

During the peak of the Soviet "empire", Ukraine held much of the USSR nuclear arsenal.

[radius777]

29. Ukrainians and the other Slavic peoples

have always been viewed by Russians as inferior to, and subservient of Mother Russia - that's what drives them to do this, they view the Russian empire as a Slavic caste system with Russians on top.

[Tommy Carcetti]

37. Exactly. nt

[Tommy Carcetti]

35. During the peak of the Soviet empire, Moscow controlled everything

Where the Soviet government may have strategically placed its arsenal did not change the fact that the Ukrainian people were always a subjected people to the Kremlin

Stalin even starved a couple million of them to death for their perceived insolence.

Get out of here with that shit.

[Swede]

42. Comrade settle down.

Your mask is slipping.

[Scrivener7]

80. .

[BeyondGeography]

46. A large chunk of our aid to Ukraine is being spent here

on American arms suppliers. I could cite studies but you would just say it’s all MIC bullshit.

But yes, Trump would like to turn the spigot off. This way there will be more bailout money for him and his buddies after he crashes the economy. I’d rather keep giving Ukraine a stronger hand than they would otherwise have and make Russia pay a higher price.

[Emrys]

47. That last sentence is the line being pumped by many Russian bots on Twitter right now,

along with their fellow travellers among the US right with cries of "we want our money back", with the occasional "MIC" thrown in as if it was the latest buzzword and a debate closer.

Some of that funding's never made it to Ukraine or to meet its needs in the first place because the US can be slow to live up to its promises, if it even does in the end. If it had, the Russians might be in an even worse state than they are now.

Much of it has been in the form of equipment from the US's copious ageing stockpiles, valued at replacement cost, producing a tidy budget profit and preparing a shiny set of new weapons.

Some of it has gone to pay the wages of US arms manufacturers who opened up production lines to overcome the shell shortfall.

So the bulk of it did get spent where you are. Feel better now?

In return for the relatively small outlay (a rounding error compared to US expenditure on other items on a national scale), the US has seen Russia stripped of its mystique as a Big Bogeyman in the East, much more than decimation of Russia's troop strength and materiel, been granted a real-life testing ground for existing and future armaments, and a case study in the modernization of warfare involving drone conflict on land, sea and air. Unless Trump manages to build his "Iron Dome" and the US gives up any idea of being territorially involved elsewhere in the world and retreats into its most comfortable pose of isolationism - under the guise of "America First" - which seems highly unlikely even under Trump the way he's going, it's going to need that data.

There's something distasteful about counting the pennies while a literal genocide is going on in a country an ocean away, especially when that country has lain itself more vulnerable because of security assurances it was given by previous US administrations, not least the most recent one, let alone dismissing a country fighting for its life as "another shiny object". It's not pacifism, it's rank, inhuman cynicism, and it stinks.

The US was glad of all the support (wrongheaded as it may have been) it received when it invoked NATO Article 5 after the Twin Towers were attacked. It's proving to be as untrustworthy in return as its worst naysayers have always said it is.

[radius777]

49. Ukraine is on the front line of freedom,

and 'freedom' as the saying goes 'isn't free'.

"Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have found out the exact measure of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them, and these will continue till they are resisted with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress."
― Frederick Douglass

[electric_blue68]

121. The Holodimor? Did I spell it right?

Eta.
I see by a later post I'm right, though the proper spelling is Holodomor.

[WarGamer]

53. Groups of Ukrainian nationalists also aided the Nazis rounding up Jews in Ukraine in WW2.

[Emrys]

58. He's outta here, dude. n/t

[WarGamer]

60. A strange mix of folks get interested in these discussions.

[radius777]

67. Various groups did side with the Nazis to escape

the grip of the Soviets - not because they necessarily liked the Nazis - but did so under the 'enemy of my enemy is my friend' principle. Both the Nazis and Soviets were terrible, which left many with bad choices.

[Emrys]

79. It didn't help that Ukraine had been through the Holodomor

not that much previously, which didn't do much to endear Stalin to them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

[yardwork]

111. Every Arab nation sided with Hitler in WWII.

A fact the OP ignores over and over and over...

My point is not to dredge up old complaints. My point is that if we're going to wring our hands about some Ukrainians being Nazi allies in WWII, let's be consistent about pointing the finger of shame.

[Swede]

81. Hitlers last guards in the bunker were French.

nt

[WarGamer]

85. A combination...

I assume you're talking about SS Charlemagne, the French volunteer SS Division who fought in the Battle of Berlin, retreating back into Mitte Berlin near the Reichstag... but they were with lots of other European SS soldiers from Norway, Netherlands, etc. fighting under SS Nordland and General Krukenberg. They were the last obsessed die hard Nazis and they knew they'd have no life after a NAZI loss and would be considered traitors.

[yardwork]

112. Iraq and Iran were part of the Axis.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia pretended to be neutral but supported Hitler until 1945, when they rushed to join the winning side.

Anwar Sadat was quite open about why he colluded with Hitler. He thought he'd get a better deal, until he didn't.

[Tommy Carcetti]

116. There were also some Ukrainian nationalists who stood up to the Nazis and saved Jews

It was a very, very complicated time in a very, very complicated place.

Snyder’s Bloodlands is a must read on the subject.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrey_Sheptytsky

Also in February 1942, Sheptytsky sent a letter to Heinrich Himmler protesting the Holocaust in Ukraine.[7] During World War II, he saved at least 150-200 Jews, mainly children, by hiding them in Greek Catholic orphanages, monasteries, and convents, where they were trained in how to pass as Greek Catholics. He collaborated in this work with the superiors of the Studite orders, Sister Josefa (Helena Witter) and his brother Klymentiy Sheptytsky.[16][7] At his archbishop's residence in Lviv, he gave shelter to Kurt Lewin, the son of Jecheskiel Lewin, the chief rabbi of the Lviv progressive synagogue.[7]
In August 1942, Sheptytsky sent a letter to Pius XII in which he reported on the brutal Nazi policies and unequivocally condemned the murder of Jews, and also admitted that his original assessment of the Germans' attitude toward Ukrainians was wrong.[7] He also issued on November 21, 1942, the pastoral letter, "Thou Shalt Not Kill",[17] to protest Nazi atrocities.
According to historian Ronald Rychlak, "A German Foreign Office agent named 'Frederic' was sent in a tour through various Nazi-occupied and satellite countries during the war. He wrote in his confidential report to the German Foreign Office on September 19, 1943, that Metropolitan Archbishop Andrey Sheptytsky, of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, remained adamant in saying that the killing of Jews was an inadmissible act. 'Frederic' went on to comment that Sheptytsky made the same statements and used the same phrasing as the French, Belgian, and Dutch bishops, as if they were all receiving instructions from the Vatican."[18]
One of the rabbis whose life was saved by Metropolitan Sheptytsky, David Kahane, stated: "Andrew Sheptytsky deserves the undying gratitude of the Jews and the honorific title 'Prince of the Righteous'".[19] In addition, among the Jews who, thanks to Sheptytsky's help, survived the war were Lili Pohlmann and her mother, Adam Daniel Rotfeld (later Poland's foreign minister), two sons of the chief rabbi of Katowice (including the prominent cardiac surgeon Leon Chameides).[20]

[electric_blue68]

122. Huh...Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church! Who knew there was such a thing....

What's personally interesting to me is that my mom was Greek-American (though raised Orthodox), and had married my dad; a Ukrainian-American. Both were 1st Gen Americans.

[electric_blue68]

120. THIS! My dad, and His dad (Ukrainian Immigrant) Hated The Soviet Union!

[Scrivener7]

33. So? Then they stopped wearing the same uniform, Ukraine became independent, and Russia invaded a sovereign country.

So what victory are you talking about?

[TubbersUK]

93. Of course people haven't forgotten, least of all the Ukrainians

They are now however citizens of the sovereign state of Ukraine and wish to remain so.

[electric_blue68]

119. That was not the general will of the Ukrainian people! 😑

[osteopath6]

16. Negotiations not going anywhere?

Negotiations are the only way wars realistically can end. Has anyone even tried??
I hope they can score rebuilding and reparations. But I'd settle for anything if it results in cessation of this horrible, destructive, wasteful war.

Sadly it isn't my choice. But that doesn't mean I have to support the war or continued funding. I don't personally enjoy Any death in my name.

I'm a physician. That's not what I believe in. I oppose the death penalty. I oppose war. I oppose arming people with weapons I paid for to use against animals and human beings. Sometimes you are given no choice, I understand the decisions some have to make. But don't expect applause from me.

[BeyondGeography]

18. They will only go anywhere if Putin makes real concessions

Reparations and security guarantees that the Ukrainians are comfortable with are essential. If the US doesn’t come to the table prioritizing those items these talks are DOA. Stamping your feet and saying you’re for peace is not a strategy.

[osteopath6]

19. Nor did I suggest it

My strategy is to stop funding the war until its shown that the diplomatic front is now at the forefront of the overall war effort.

Because right now its looking like no attempt was even made...? What the hell is that

[lapfog_1]

43. you might even get a piece of paper

and declare "peace in our times" as you return from the negotiation meeting

[BannonsLiver]

127. The OP is the ghost of Chamberlain.

I’m convinced of it.

[Emrys]

51. Comrade Putin applauds your strategy to deny Ukraine all funding

because you can't do an awful lot about depriving Russia of its funding, so his forces will make the most of their opportunity to level even more of Ukraine and maim, rape, torture and kill even more Ukrainians, civilians or troops, men, women and children alike.

I'm sure Putin will get round to diplomacy someday.

As for that front, you are obviously ignorant of the five international conferences Zelensky has convened along with up to 100 participating countries and international bodies to discuss how to bring about peace, along with the next one planned to take place in Rome later this year.

Meanwhile, how many peace conferences has Putin arranged?

[MarineCombatEngineer]

66. No diplomatic attempt have even been made?

So, basically, you're saying that the Biden Admin didn't attempt to settle this diplomatically?
What a pant load, to quote a long gone DU'er.

[electric_blue68]

123. But if the war Funding for Ukraine is stopped, then Most Likely the Whole Ukrainian State will be over run by Putin...

How would that make you feel.
?!

I seriously prefer No wars, but sometimes you have to fight to save your way of life, your rights, your bodily safety, and of those you care about, etc!

If a pacifist let's themself be beaten to a bloody pulp - that's one thing; their choice.

But that's not to be decided for over a whole sovereign country's people.

[Disaffected]

4. "Here's what he's thinking. If he can end up with a Ukraine that's 30% smaller....."

IMO if he's thinking that (which I very much doubt) he is delusional.

The 30% will soon become 100% if the West appeases and capitulates. This would be Munich revisited.....

As for Trump's scurrilous remarks that Russia should keep captured Ukrainian territory because they suffered losses in their invasion, there are no words to express adequate revulsion. We are on a fast trip to crazy land.........

[Tommy Carcetti]

22. NATO has already expanded to Russia's doorstep.

Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Norway, Finland.

All on Russia's border.

This "Russia is justified to be worried about NATO" is complete and utter bullshit.

The war could always end the minute Russia withdraws its troops from Ukraine.

There are no excuses for Russia's actions in Ukraine. None.

So stop making them for it.

[osteopath6]

26. Asking questions

And pointing out obvious BS is not "making them for them"

I will not stop asking questions. I am a voter and I am a taxpayer and I'm not content accepting the zeitgeist's take on this or any other issue in lieu of my own good sense and judgement.

Why has diplomatic action only just recently come into the spotlight? How were more bombs and guns the priority over actually sitting down with career diplomats and hammering out a treaty both sides can live with?

Since we can not, should not and will not get directly involved in the fight, what other outcome is there? Meatgrinder...? No thanks. I oppose that with every last fiber of my being.

[Beastly Boy]

106. Diplomatic action has been ongoing since the Budapest agreement in 1994. And it has been a disaster for Ukraine.

Its consequences include the current war between Russia and Ukraine.

[radius777]

36. +1. Russia lost the Cold War, and losers don't

dictate the terms - that's what is not being said but needs to be. NATO didn't expand per se - the Russian empire contracted because the USSR fell apart, and the former republics chose willingly to join NATO for fear of aggression. If Ukraine (and Georgia) was in NATO they would not have been attacked.

This is also not really about NATO - as the alliance is much larger now with Finland and Sweden joining - and Russia isn't doing anything about it. Because they don't care about those countries - they want the former USSR republics back - that's what this is about - and NATO stands in their way when it comes to that.

[Emrys]

90. Russia lost the Cold war, unfortunately the Russian proletariat lost the peace that followed

Putin exacerbated Russia's kleptocratic tendencies at the top and finished off the asset stripping that began under Yelstsin.

There's no way he can allow the air ever to clear enough for that to be examined publicly in Russia on a concerted basis, much as I believe more Russians than we might imagine know it and hate it, so he has to keep the imperial juggernaut moving ever onward and concoct a vision of the outside world that's bizarre and nightmarish. Like a shark, if it stops moving forward, it'll die (that's me being optimistic, BTW).

[Disaffected]

24. NATO has already expanded to Russia's doorstep (on several borders).

Russia's invasion of Ukraine IMO had little to do with that and is much more an empire rebuilding land grab.

[TubbersUK]

28. Russia already has borders with NATO countries n/t

[MarineCombatEngineer]

30. Where the hell have you been these last 40 years?

NATO has already expanded to Russia's doorstep and there is always a choice, despite what you may think.

[Emrys]

5. That Gish gallop has so many untruths in it that I just can't be bothered to respond,

not least because previous debates with you have shown that you'll continue to spout the same old propaganda even if presented with ample cogent counter-evidence as if the exchanges had never taken place.

Just typing things doesn't make them true. Your "wishcasting" began when you predicted Russia simply wouldn't invade. None of your categorical declarations and predictions since have proven any more reliable.

[yardwork]

10. +100

Putin's own words belie most of the OP. Putin believes that Ukraine must be part of Russia. He uses falsehoods and misrepresentations of history to justify what is a land grab.

Many Americans are unable to separate their romantic fantasies from reality. They stay in a cocoon of limited information. They are willfully ignorant; ignorant by choice.

Ukraine will fall. Putin assured Trump's return to the White House to achieve that goal. And Europe will not be safer. Putin won't stop with Ukraine.

And, if the long term result of all this is that the countries of Europe rearm themselves as they were before WWII, well...

[Emrys]

12. I'm a bit more hopeful that Ukraine won't "fall", whatever that would look like.

Russia has invaded some areas, but the sense in which it can be said to truly occupy them is very limited and fragile.

That's just one of my quibbles with the OP - Russia's area gains over the last couple of years have been tiny in the grand scheme of a country the size of Ukraine, and have been incredibly costly in personnel and any other terms. Many of the "captured" areas are in ruins. Those that aren't have a very uneasy coexistence between the occupying forces and the inhabitants, no matter whether those inhabitants may have initially been open to the idea of becoming Russian citizens.

Russia just doesn't have any of the resources required to subjugate the whole of Ukraine. Its initial plan relied on rubbish intelligence that suggested many Ukrainians would capitulate and allow themselves to be enlisted to the Russian cause. That didn't happen, in the same way the Russians' celebratory meals booked in Kyiv's best restaurants never happened. Any very faint prospects of that support emerging were scuppered by atrocities such as those suffered in Bucha.

As for the rest of it, it's not up to date and is evidently filtered through blinkers the OP has never realized he wears.

I think European militarization is inevitable. What tensions that will lead to is anybody's guess, but the alternatives are not appetizing.

None of this will be helped by Trump's (and now Kellogg's - who I had some faint hopes for in view of his statements before he was appointed special envoy) overwhelming sense of urgency to get this "done". He wants to tick off an "achievement" come what may -"Mission Accomplished" - and bargains on his fans not having enough attention span or interest to follow the horrible consequences as they unfold half a world away. Meanwhile, time is not Putin's friend given the problems the war has caused Russia internally, so Trump's team look like the cavalry rushing headlong to his rescue.

[yardwork]

104. I hope you're right.

Putin's misunderstandings of the Ukrainian point of view arise from his worldview, which is rooted in false interpretations of the past. This is always a weakness of authoritarian regimes. No matter how hard they try to replace historical facts with myths and suppress the truth, eventually a certain number of the populace figure out what's happening. People living on the streets know they're not living in a Potemkin village. No matter how many you arrest or "disappear," eventually the truth dawns.

[W_HAMILTON]

34. Exactly. My only remaining question is which side of the horseshoe it is coming from...

[FSogol]

44. True dat!

[andym]

6. You are incorrect: Putin wants ALL of Ukraine

that was his actual goal--it's not a secret either. Any settlement is a temporary one. That is why having Ukraine join NATO after any settlement was of KEY importance-- now off the table.
That's why Z has today suggested forming a new army of Europe-- if that's done some kind of European mutual defense agreement, then Ukraine will join that.
It's all up to the Europeans now to see how far they are willing to go to thwart Putin.

[bluestarone]

7. Especially now that TSF is in place.

They actually want ALL Ukrainians dead. (next all NATO people)

[moondust]

9. I'd like to know

what the residents of Crimea and Donbas want. Not that it would matter to Poopin or TSF but it would be helpful if some impartial 3rd party could hold an unbiased referendum in those areas to find out who they want to be.

[Emrys]

13. One problem is that so many Ukrainians have been displaced from those areas or killed,

and replaced by Russians, or Russian sympathizers (one reason I have no hesitation in using the word "genocide" ) - especially in Crimea, where Tatars have been victimized and displaced for many years - that it's a sticky point what any such vote would be measuring. It might just be an indication of how successful Putin's been.

As for the hope of a valid referendum in any area governed by Russia, well ...

[womanofthehills]

84. The majority of the residents of Crimea are now Russian

Most Ukrainians left over the years.

What percentage of Crimea is Russian?

“According to the article, the population composition in Crimea is as follows:

– 82% Russian
– 10% Crimean Tatar
– 3% Russian and Ukrainian equally

https://www.ncesc.com/geographic-faq/what-percentage-of-crimea-is-russian/

[Emrys]

91. That tends to happen after genocide and when you don't want to be part of it (see bold below)

Russia repeats genocide on Crimean Tatars

The 80 years since the genocidal deportation of the Crimean Tatar people are not just a tragedy for the Crimean Tatars, but a systemic diagnosis and a historical warning of what Russian imperialism is.

MEP Anna Fotyga, former foreign minister of Poland

The Crimean Tatars are but one of numerous peoples who have suffered from Moscow's expansionist policies over the course of three consecutive centuries. Moscow first deprived the Crimean Tatars of their state territories, and then of their statehood on the Crimean Peninsula and the adjacent regions. These territories are currently witnessing fierce battles for Ukrainian independence.. In the late 18th century, Crimean Tatars, along with Poles and Ukrainians, fell into the hands of Russian imperialism, and the first thing Moscow did was strike at the historical memory of these peoples. The blow to the Crimean Tatars was so profound that by the end of the 19th century, they were on the brink of total extinction.

Even the microscopic presence of Crimean Tatars on the Crimean Peninsula was viewed as an existential, ideological, and historical threat for the Kremlin. Putin's words were not accidental when he said that Crimea is a sacred place for all of Russia. However, it is based on historical lies and omits the fact that less than 6 per cent of Crimea’s written history belongs to the Russian chapter. This short period of 168 years was fulfilled with genocidal policies of the Russian rulers, because in this strategic location there was no place for the indigenous people under tsarist, Soviet rule and likewise for Putin's and any other chauvinistic regime in Russia. As a result, on May 19, 1944, 80 years ago, Moscow organised a mass deportation of the Crimean Tatar people and several other ethnic groups residing on the peninsula. The entire Crimean Tatar people were squeezed into hundreds of enormous kilometer-long trains and moved eastward to Central Asia over 21 days. It was a deliberate decision to annihilate the people of Crimea and the peoples of the North Caucasus, who were also mass-deported that year. During their exile, the Crimean Tatars lost about half of their population.

Immediately after the deportation of the Crimean Tatars, the process of complete historical, cultural, and archaeological annihilation of all Crimean Tatars began. 80 per cent of the Crimean Tatar localities were renamed. It was a deliberate and targeted forgetting of the history of Crimea, which was intertwined with the history of its indigenous people. It was exactly what the term genocide defines. We need to say it loudly: Moscow committed genocide on the Crimean Tatars in 1944. This process continued until the end of the USSR, and even after the fall of the empire and the return of the indigenous people to their homeland. Local authorities and pro-Russian forces in Kyiv actively hindered the restoration of the presence of Crimean Tatars in Crimea. The Crimean Tatars and their representative bodies, the Mejlis and the Qurultay, made their historical choice to support a pro-European and pro-Ukrainian future for Ukrainian statehood in the late 1980s and have essentially never deviated from this course. They believed and believed that only in this way could they ensure the revival of their people on their ancestral land.

In the 2000s, a new historical period of flourishing seemed to begin for the Crimean Tatars. Culture, media, art, and much more were developing. It appeared that the Crimean Tatars were given a second chance for historical and, most importantly, political revival. However, Russian imperialism never sleeps and was preparing an act of aggression against Ukraine and the Crimean Tatars. The annexation and occupation of Crimea again placed the Crimean Tatars on the brink of survival. They forced the political leadership and active and talented youth to leave the peninsula because Moscow and the occupying authorities initiated mass persecution of Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars for their refusal to accept the new /old occupying power. Since 2014, Crimea is the epicenter of human rights violations in occupied Ukraine, the Crimean Tatars have again found themselves on the brink of an existential challenge, as they did in the late 18th century when they were under the occupation of the Russian Empire. Let me just focus on one case. Server Mustafayev was born in 1986 in Uzbekistan. The family later returned to Crimea, specifically to the city of Bakhchisarai. Server finished school in Bakhchisarai and then enrolled in the Bakhchisarai Construction College at the National Agrarian University. He studied at Kyiv National University, specializing in heat and gas supply and ventilation. Afterward, he worked as a manager in communication shops. In 2014 he started to manage a chain of bakeries. He was also active in the community in Bakhchisarai, organizing children’s parties and social events and helping low-income families. He became the coordinator of the public association "Crimean Solidarity”.In May 2018, the occupation authorities searched Mustafayev’s house and arrested the activist. Subsequently, the occupation authorities illegally sentenced him to 14 years in prison for participating in the “activities of a terrorist organization” and “preparing for the violent seizure of power.” The occupiers convicted Server Mustafayev for defending victims of political persecution and reporting on human rights violations in the occupied Crimea. Despite the harsh conditions of his imprisonment, Server remains an activist and is involved in human rights activitie.: Server helped his cellmate reunite with his child, who was taken from him when he was taken to prison. Due to a long stay in the pre-trial detention center, Mustafayev developed heart problems. A similar fate is shared by more than 200 political prisoners from occupied, majority of of whom are Crimean Tatars.

Since February 2022, with the beginning of full-scale aggression against Ukraine, the Crimean Tatars have supported the Ukrainian people in their struggle against the Russian aggressor. The mass emigration of Crimean Tatars from Crimea in the autumn of 2022 to many EU countries and Turkey should be seen as a systemic refusal to serve in the occupying forces and shoot civilians. Some Crimean Tatars remain living in Crimea, where they have been deprived of cultural, political, and historical rights, while others are scattered like beads around the world. The Kremlin effectively favours the soft migration of Crimean Tatars beyond the borders of the Russian Federation and Crimea. The situation in other occupied territories in the Donbas and Zaporizhia region demonstrates that the underlying scheme is chauvinism, characterised by genocide and the destruction of everything non-Russian and dissenting.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/opinion/russia-repeats-genocide-on-crimean-tatars/

[TnDem]

14. re: Ukraine

Ukraine was always going to lose this war. They never had a real chance at succeeding.

I understand why they had to fight, but they could never actually win this war decisively nor completely....It was just a lot of extended carnage in care of the military industrial complex.

[Beastly Boy]

20. Ukraine already won the war. Russia will keep winning battles, but they are losing the war.

It was widely anticipated that Russia would occupy Ukraine within six months of invading it. The prevailing sentiment in Ukraine at that time was that under occupation, Ukrainian resistance will consist of partisan warfare, non-cooperation with the occupying power and passive resistance on the part of the majority of the Ukrainian population. In other words, destabilizing the occupying military forces using asymmetrical and clandestine warfare absent of conventional armed forces. Eventually, the thinking was, Russian occupation would be made unsustainable and Russian regime would eventually implode as it did in the former Warsaw Pact countries.

Ukraine is in a far better position now. Despite the terrible losses, this is an unequivocal and unexpected victory. As the joke goes, Russian armed forces, having been the world's second best in 2022, are now the second best in Ukraine. True, Ukraine has no chance of winning conventional warfare against the numerically superior Russian Army, but it is now in a far better, previously inconceivable, position to negotiate. Retaining independence in any shape or form is a tremendous victory for Ukraine. And, a tremendous loss for Russia that goes beyond Ukraine. The longer Ukraine can sustain its independence, in whatever form, the stronger its position becomes, and the better they can resist any future ambitions Putin has for Uktaine.

Just an example, without commenting on how realistic or advisable it may be: there are unconfirmed rumors that Ukraine is seeking ways to obtain a nuclear weapon. It would be a complete game changer, just like Russia's failure to occupy Ukraine has been.

[WarGamer]

21. agreed... from that perspective.

Russia has been show to be a paper tiger to a certain degree.

[Emrys]

31. It'll be a Pyrrhic victory if it's squandered in the aftermath

Last edited Sat Feb 15, 2025, 08:05 PM - Edit history (1)

It's obvious Putin will be back for more at some point in the future if he's pandered to in any settlement, which is why Trump's conduct now has riled the European powers so much.

Putin's the aggressor, he's the war criminal, he's the mafioso who's ripped off his people for far too long and built a criminal dystopia out of what could have been a fresh start for his country. He'll repeat that performance as long as he lives if he takes over more territory. There are no excuses for his invasion, no buying in to the fantasy that it was because he felt threatened by encroachment by NATO (Finland waves "hello" ), he's just an imperialist criminal, and will always be that no matter what fancy terms get applied by history.

As for the rumour you reported last, I've heard Zelensky say something along those lines in the last year or so, but I took it more as exasperation at the slow drip of support at times, like "What are we supposed to do?" I'm not sure it would end up being a game-changer.

Ukraine gave up the nuclear arms on its territory because they were a liability at the time (as they were for Kazakhstan, which gave up its own stocks). The crucial codes enabling their use were held by Russia, and they were just so much hardware that needed costly maintenance and conservation and guarding, with the constant threat that they could feed into the illicit arms trade somehow. Even then, Ukraine (or another state or non-state actor) could have cobbled together some sort of dirty bomb and delivery system from the components pretty quickly, and that was no doubt among the fears that sparked the Minsk Agreement and paved the way for the ratification of START.

Ukraine nowadays has plenty of nuclear reactors and the accompanying waste. It could build a dirty bomb quite quickly if it wanted to. Whether that would be more of a deterrent than a full-blown fissile nuke is another matter.

Russia's possession of nukes hasn't deterred Ukraine from striking its soil and bringing it as close to outright defeat as at any time in more or less living memory, so I'm not clear how much of an asset they'd be for Ukraine, and they'd likely cost it a lot of goodwill among its allies, which, after all, would not be immune from any fallout. And Putin's enough of an asshole to call any bluff Ukraine might put up and enjoy pointing the righteous finger of condemnation if the (almost) worst came to the (almost) worst.

[Beastly Boy]

105. I don't believe milirary victory for Ukraine is an achievable goal.

Neither is deployment of nukes, in whatever version it might take place. But as we have seen in the case of North Korea, Iran and Russia itself, a mere prospect of possessing nukes is a tremendous diplomatic lever. It has demonstrably been the case for all of the above, as well as Israel, India and Pakistan, without a single nuclear weapon ever deployed.

In Russia's case, nukes have been repeatedly hinted at as a deterrent to the military assistance to Ukraine from the West. And it worked. It slowed the NATO military help to Ukraine, which largely accounts for the three years of armed conflict that exhausted Ukraine's manpower, as well as NATO consistently declining acceptance into the alliance to Ukraine, which would have immediately ended the war. Were Ukraine to possess nukes in 2014, there would have been no annexation of Ukraine's territories by Russia, only the smoldering inter-ethnic clashes in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions at best.

Russia's slow decline as an empire has been evident for over a century. It continues to disintegrate, entirely due to its internal decay. It took 20 million Russian dead and decades of repression of its subjects to temporarily (less than 50 years) reverse this decline and maintain Russia (in its incarnation as Soviet Union) as a superpower. But maintaining its superpower status proved to be unsustainable, primarily due to economic and administrative, not geopolitical factors, despite Russia's seemingly endless wealth in natural resources, which continues to be squandered. In the past three decades, Russia lost the allegiance of its Warsaw Pact allies, arguably all of its former Republics, its status as a superpower and its standing among the countries which we now call the Global South. It also failed to contain the expansion of NATO. Much of it happened on Putin's watch.

While Putin's ambitions towards Ukraine are rooted in the populist sentiment of restoring the once mighty Empire (Russians have their own version of the "manifest destiny" myth), his timing for invading it was dictated by the necessity to maintain his regime in the light of the Empire's accelerating disintegration. To make long story short, he miscalculated badly. What should have, by his estimations, taken months with minimal casualties, is taking longer than three years. Russia is bleeding its resources, prestige, and prospects for the future, and its decline and disintegration has only been accelerated due to the war.

Putin left himself no way out. He must continue his conquest of Ukraine, or his regime runs a high risk of falling. While he can outlast Ukraine in continuing the war, he cannot sustain the occupation, even if he occupies the entire country. Putin's attempts to restore the Empire are simply unsustainable. What Russia ever conquered, it was not able to administer from Moscow. The Empire is crumbling from within, and occupation of Ukraine will only contribute to it.

Ukraine is the young Mohammad Ali to Russia's Sonny Liston in 1964. Ukraine is on the rise and Russia is on a long decline. Not even a military defeat of Ukraine can stop this.

[Emrys]

109. By that token, nor do I believe that military victory for Russia is achievable,

and it sounds like we may agree on that.

Putin's time until the Russian economy collapses is limited, so I don't agree he could outlast Ukraine.

Unfortunately, unless things pan out better than almost anybody imagines at the moment (given neither the US nor Russia seem to have any coherent plan), Trump's about to throw him a lifeline and prolong his imperial ambitions. We'll see what the European powers can do about that. And events, obviously.

[Deuxcents]

69. Beastly..I gotta. Say that your post helps with my depression over this issue..I didn't look at it from that perspective

Russia and its forces, mercenaries and the North Koreans made Ukraine a force to be reckoned with. I’m proud to be a supporter of their love of country and their freedom. I just hope the spoils of war will not be devastating to them 🇺🇦

[The Madcap]

27. Russia should only get territory they have already destroyed

They should get zero help rebuilding any of it.. ukraine should poison the fields before they leave and leave nothing of value behind. Then join with Europe in a NATO 2, with or without the US. Oh and get some nukes.

[W_HAMILTON]

32. Oh you!

And your revisionist timeline sounds more like the one I hear from Republican rightwing sources -- strange...

The Russian invasion certainly didn't catch the Biden administration by surprise -- they were warning of it well in advance.

And, no, Trump trying to push aside Ukraine and Europe to negotiate with Putin to divvy up Ukraine was not "the ending it was always going to be" -- hell, it still might not be the ending now.

[KayossZero]

41. Agreed, a very blatent astroturf.

The tell for me came a few months ago where they complained about their *extended* Russian family who had very 'strong feelings' about having to duck and cover from the AFU, who of course are fighting to save their country vs his sun seeking bikini clad yuppy relatives. It was a very sad attempt at whataboutism & classic bourgeois spiel.

[Swede]

39. I 100% disagree. You can't negotiate with Putin.

Ukrainians know it.

[lapfog_1]

40. online "experts" wishcasting about the war.

that would include YOU no doubt... pushing all the MAGA / Putin talking points.

The reality is that Russia is not making that much progress in the last 2 years. Russia is losing something like 1500 soldiers a day all along the front... so many that they had to call for North Koreans to help fill in the ranks.

Russian military leaders are LOSING the war. The Sanctions ( always too weak ) are starting to actually work.

The civilian Russians at home are finally feeling the pain... and no longer doing "Z" rallies and thinking that Ukraine is a bunch of "Nazis". People are tired of Putin... and tired of being afraid to say they are tired of all this. They had a small taste of western Europe style freedom between the Soviets and Putin... and they liked the freedom... but they didn't like the loss of empire, the loss of status ( as the world's number 2 ), and especially they didn't like the economic disaster and the long bread lines.

Wars are won when the populations of the waring countries support the war.

Putin successfully mind hacked enough MAGAs here to get them to support people like Trump and Vance and Faux News and Tucker Carlson and the mindset that Ukraine is to blame ( somehow ) for the war and that Russia is the ideal world leader of white Christians ( complete with anti trans, anti immigration, anti DEI, anti homosexual themes. No diversity tolerated). Ignoring the long standing suppression of their own native ( mostly ethnic asian ) populations to the vast east of their country.

WW2 took about 5 and a half years to defeat the Germans and Italians... and the Allies not only had the USA materials, they had the entire western world combatants and resources. Ukraine has only western Europe and USA weapons and some humanitarian aide and they have fought a much larger army to a standstill while also inflicting much larger casualties on the Russians, mostly using their own technology ( the highly effective drone tech ).

They also are fighting for their own homeland. Ukraine will never be part of Russia. Not even the parts that have a large population of ethnic Russians. Putin will need to continue the war he started until all Ukrainians are dead. Putin know this even if you do not. If you had bothered to meet any Ukrainian men ( I have ) you would know this.

but continue with your "expert" opinion.

Good thing you weren't around to recommend a negotiated settlement with Hitler in 1942. Although there were quite a few like you in the USA at that time.

[WarGamer]

50. Unlike most here... I've actually BEEN TO Russia AND Ukraine.

To be honest, I can't tell the difference.

I don't speak much Russian and Ukrainian sounds like Russian to my untrained ears.

I know there's like 100+ years worth of animosity between the two for sure.

THIS is the best map of Ukraine.

https://deepstatemap.live/en"#6/48.0266722/32.7392578

It shows updated advances and retreats.

Unfortunately... the recent lull in fighting is over and the AFU is reporting 250+ more new attacks near Kurakhove toward Kostyantynopil.

And this is the single best social media source. He's a little bit of a pom pom waver but I trust his analysis and who he retweets.

https://x.com/RALee85

[lapfog_1]

98. dude, he is posting about things from 2 and 3 years ago

good lord... and you think this is the best source for information?

I don't trust anything on musk's "X" platform. Musk has turned it into a MAGA hangout and misinformation central. Might as well be reposting Pravda.

I managed a group of ex-FSB computer programmers located in Kiev... been to Kiev... and I also had a few people in Moscow, obviously pre-war. And its MORE than a 100+ years of mistrust between Ukraine and Russia.

They may sound similar to your untrained ears... but that is only because you didn't listen to what they were saying.

Russia is guilty of many many war crimes... starting with a war against Ukraine going back 12 years now... maybe longer. We cannot let them keep the land that they have occupied as a reward for hacking our elections

[Strelnikov_]

95. Agree

This one is tedious.

[Quixote1818]

45. Jake Broe disagrees with you. He still sees a Russian economic or political collapse as more likely

Starting at around the 27 minute mark. I'm not sure what you mean by Russia gaining ground almost every month as the front lines have barely changed and Ukraine actually took a bunch of Russian territory. Not to mention they are crippling Russia's oil industry by attacking their refineries.

[WarGamer]

48. lol... a top Wishcaster on YouTube.

[Emrys]

52. *fingers in ears* LALALA CAN'T HEAR YOU

[WarGamer]

59. Just FYI...

Ever since I was so wrong about the invasion...

And let me clarify. I thought there was no way Putin could be SOOO STUUUPID to attack Ukraine.

It seemed as if the two sides were negotiating and they'd come up with some deal that Russia would accept.

Lo and behold... seems Boris Johnson was urging Zelenskyy to fight instead of negotiate. Hope we learn more after the war is over as I'd like to see more confirmation of this. The initial source is Ukrainian but I'd like to see more.

So yeah I was wrong about the invasion. But I've been right ever since... about the counter attack and the ineffective weapons being used... pretty much everything.

I spend a lot of time following this thing, it'd be embarrassing if I was consistently wrong.

Lots of people make the mistake of following solely Ukrainian or Russian sources.

Both sides have incentive to lie. Both sides lie. Gotta separate the wheat from the chaff.

[Emrys]

76. The Ukrainians have debunked that theory that Johnson was instrumental in their decision

not to accept any deal from Putin at that stage. They'd already come to that conclusion - with very sound reasons - and Johnson just cheered them on (one of the few things he did the bulk of the UK population approved of).

Chum, you can pat yourself on the back all you want and declare yourself right - I've already told you I'm not going any further in unravelling your Gish gallops.

Oh, fuck it, just one technical point: the Ukrainians have now developed effective countermeasures against the Russians' fibre-optic FPVs and are rolling them out with some urgency. That's the way it always goes. Thrust and counter-thrust. You know, like in wargames. See, you're not the only one who keeps up with things. Maybe you're not as monomaniacal as I am.

A year or so you were declaring everything was over because the Russians had effective EW that was "making the Ukrainians' drones fall out of the sky". Well, that panned out, so please don't try to tell me you've "been right ever since".

I just never get this fixation of yours with predictions and "being right". There are few areas in life where we can give categoric predictions, and it's a pretty fruitless exercise unless you're wagering money. An area as unpredictable as war certalnly doesn't lend itself to it.

On any given day, I'll read info from people who have decades of knowledge and experience in these fields as well as some on the ground. I can't think of any of them who make cast-iron predictions about what's going to happen in Ukraine. Maybe warnings from past experience, but that's a different matter. That's about where I am in all this.

[WarGamer]

77. I only talk about being right when so many tell me I'm wrong.

I do appreciate your comments although I'm sure that's not reciprocal.

DU is at it's best when it's educational.

[Emrys]

82. I've been plain with you about what I find objectionable - it's being categorical and predicting outcomes

when some things just aren't that clear-cut, and there's nothing wrong with that, it's just life. And when it's based on information I know to be incorrect, I can't help needing to pipe up because a bunch of people (maybe, God help them) read our screeds, and the infosphere is so full of malevalent and sometimes state-sponsored bullshit already. I've never interpreted anything you've written as malevolent, but as we joshed about upthread, these convos do seem to draw in quite a mixed bunch sometimes!

I'm positive I get up a number of DUers' noses too. In fact, I've been told as much in no uncertain terms at times.

I know I sometimes go in hard on you and can't keep the snark out of my tone in the heat of ideas, and I've always been impressed that you've never risen to it on a personal level.

[WarGamer]

86. I infinitely enjoy interactions on DU... I've learned so much about topics I knew nothing about.

This place is fertile ground for knowledge

[Emrys]

87. Careful

We'll be having one of these in a minute if we don't man up and snap out of it

I think it's safe to say your OP has excited some debate. And a little collateral damage ...

[WarGamer]

89. Definitely.

[LudwigPastorius]

102. "I only talk about being right when so many tell me I'm wrong."

[Quixote1818]

57. The "Wishcasting" seems to be going in both directions based on what others are saying about your previous posts

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=20033507

https://democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=20034313

We all have basis, Ukraine has lasted a lot longer than anyone predicted including you it appears.

[WarGamer]

68. People also misunderstand me about this

I recognize that supporting Ukraine has had a number of good effects.

Russia's capability has been exposed. No one need to be fearful of a Russian juggernaut spreading across Europe. Hell, Poland by themselves could push it's way to Moscow.

It may have weakened the government, has certainly weakened the economy.

These are all things the neocons like... and have dreamed about doing for 60 years.

Ukrainian resistance may have saved other nations from future conflict with Russia too.

BTW you can also search where I've said... fighting Russia is up to Ukraine and Ukrainians. I just want the US to be a proportionate partner, NOT the sugar daddy.

I'm not against fighting the war... I think it's stupid but I'm not against it.

I'm mostly against the neoconservative movement (and their predecessors) and proxy war with Russia has been their dream since the end of WW2.

Neoconservatism can also be called the American Imperialist movement... global Amerian control and power. I believe a multi-polar world is more fair and correct.

[Emrys]

54. I could fill a thread with reputable economists and analysts who've been predicting the same

I won't bother because they'll never be enough for some, and whatever will be will be in time.

It's one reason I don't like Trump's rush to cobble together some "deal" just so he can brag about it.

Time is not on Putin's side.

[Tommy Carcetti]

55. I think Syria this past January...

…more or less demonstrated that online armchair punditry on foreign events has as much bearing in reality as fantasy football has to the NFL.

With all due respect, of course.

[ck4829]

56. Russia's neocons seem to like it though

[W_HAMILTON]

61. This you?

I think the administrations "Russia on the verge of invading" is a stroke of geniius

Reverse Psychology.

Biden says "Russia going to invade Ukraine"

Putin says "No, I'm not..."

...

See? The harder that the West says "Russia will invade"... they less likely they are to actually doing it.

Literally... to "win"... Putin won't invade, just to spite Biden.

Silly geopolitical theater.

lol...

Taken from: https://democraticunderground.com/100216373060

[WarGamer]

75. I didn't think Putin would invade Ukraine... didn't believe that we could see another European WW2 style conflict.

I was wrong about that as I've said MANY TIMES.

[displacedvermoter]

62. Something very icky about this post!

[W_HAMILTON]

64. It's a feature -- not a bug.

[displacedvermoter]

65. Understand

[BannonsLiver]

126. You should see their pro-DOGE OP.

Cliff notes version:

- Whether we like it or not (familiar phrasing) the govt is bloated and spending needs to be cut so in the long run it’s all good.

- Dems should have thought of it first.

[W_HAMILTON]

63. This you as well?

Russia's Military, Once Creaky, Is Modern and Lethal

https://news.yahoo.com/russias-military-once-creaky-modern-124721425.html

Under Putin’s leadership, it has been overhauled into a modern sophisticated army, able to deploy quickly and with lethal effect in conventional conflicts, military analysts said. It features precision-guided weaponry, a newly streamlined command structure and well-fed and professional soldiers. And they still have the nuclear weapons.

Taken from: https://democraticunderground.com/100216294733

[WarGamer]

71. I linked a pre-war NYT article... bad me.

Hoping for no war in the weeks before the invasion... bad me.

[W_HAMILTON]

83. Or did you cherry-pick an article and post it here to further a pro-Russian narrative?

I think someone once said "GOOD Du'ers don't propagandize other DU'ers."

And pray tell, if you were """hoping for no war,""" why do you think posting an article incorrectly fluffing up Russian military capability would do that? You do realize that warmongering Russia chose to launch their invasion and start this war to begin with, right? And that a """modern and lethal""" Russian army would make it more likely they went to war since, if true, they would have easily overwhelmed Ukraine, right?

Well, luckily for Ukraine and the rest of the world that doesn't kowtow to Putin, Russia's military turned out to be even worse than creaky.

[WarGamer]

88. I still don't get it.

To this day I don't understand the invasion.

The only thing I can assume...

Putin believed there's be 3-4 skirmishes and then a surrender leading to a Russian proxy leader of Ukraine.

Then he got trapped in a war that POLITICALLY he can't quit... while taking flak from the Oligarchs who really run that country.

If that was his plan... a fast victory, I think it was wishful thinking, not grounded in reality and a monumental blunder akin to Hitler waiting to invade Russia in June.

[Emrys]

97. From what I can see, Putin was a victim of the regime he'd built around him

Dissent wan't tolerated, bad news wasn't welcome, theft of money and resources was rife, with accompanying cronyism and incompetence, and Russian intelligence about Ukraine - a country they'd been trying to soften up for potential takeover, if not invasion, for years - was very wide of the mark.

They thought they had enough traitorous placemen and tacit support among the Ukrainian population that they'd be, if not initially welcomed with open arms, met with only token pockets of resistance they could soon shock and awe out of existence as an example to any others who might resist (see Bucha). Infamously, their advance troops heading for Kyiv were reported to have packed their best duds and booked tables in swanky restaurants for celebratory meals/pissups after they waltzed or goosestepped in.

I vividly remember the very weird televised spectacle of Putin bullying his intelligence chief and basically intimidating his chiefs of staff into supporting his invasion of Ukraine just before it happened. It was like a scene from Death of Stalin (only with at least one less death than I'd have liked):

I don't know what its televising was supposed to prove or achieve, unless it was just more evidence of Putin's hubris - "Here I am lording it over my subordinates, and I'm going to do this thing and there's nothing anyone can do to stop it." (That sounds almost Trumpian.)

As we all know, it didn't work out like that. A key factor was that Zelensky and his cabinet didn't flee into exile, as was almost universally expected. If they had, I think someone else within Ukraine would have stepped forward as a leader, but the resistance might have been a lot weaker and the situation might have been portrayed by the world media as just another boring old coup in Eastern Europe as Putin installed yet another interim leader before the inevitable election that would elect Ukraine's next Russia-friendly president with 99% of the vote whose name newscasters would struggle to pronounce.

Mythology about the readiness and fitness, let alone functionality, of the Russian armed forces personnel, let alone their equipment, had been subject to some skepticism in academic quarters for quite some time (I remember copy-editing one book about the subject a few years earlier). It was known that there were efforts to modernize and reform them, but alcoholism and systematic hazing were seen as rife, and the command structure was very archaic. It had been assumed these efforts had met with some success. I don't think anyone was expecting their armed services to be such a godawful mess, probably largely because of entrenched graft, which Putin usually turned a blind eye to if it benefited his cronies and didn't go too far. It looks like it did go too far.

Ukraine also had some luck. The massive tailback that stalled the advance on Kyiv - the result of poor storage and maintenance of vehicles, if Trent Telenko's to be believed - was a turning point after the early atrocities of Bucha fired up the Ukrainian population and the watching world. As well as some superb fighters and intelligence staff, Ukraine also had some great communicators on its side, not least Zelensky, and the effects of its social media presence should never be underestimated.

Through all that, Putin was flatfooted, and never seemed to recover fully from the initial shock of failure and a degree of humiliation.

[WarGamer]

100. great info thx

[yardwork]

115. This could be the future of the U.S. state and military.

Trump's following Putin into hell as quickly as his little feet can run.

[yardwork]

114. Read The Road to Unfreedom by Tim Snyder.

He's an historian of Eastern Europe. He lays it all out - the myths and wishful thinking that form Putin's desires and actions.

Bottom line: Putin believes that Ukraine is part of Russia, and therefore must be part of Russia.

In fact, Ukraine existed long before Russia. Way before the USSR.

[yardwork]

113. What was bad was that you repeated Putin's propaganda.

You might want to double check your sources of info. Just saying.

[WarGamer]

118. I don't repeat propaganda... if I said it, it's a fact.

[BannonsLiver]

125. Gee whiz it's almost if there's a pattern...

I’m just Putin that out there. 😉

[roamer65]

70. I think we are going to see European troops in Ukraine.

As it should be.

There will be a new Europe that comes out of this Dumpian mess.

[WarGamer]

72. Agree... I also think Ukraine will be wildly successful after the war is over.

Investment will flow in and she'll join the European family of nations.

[roamer65]

74. Ukrainian military will form the core of the new European army.

They are brave, battle tested people.

[Initech]

73. What's really upsetting is that Elon Musk is the primary benefactor in all of this.

Last edited Sat Feb 15, 2025, 08:34 PM - Edit history (1)

He'll get the majority of Ukraine's mineral reserves to himself and further his quest to become a trillionaire.

[WarGamer]

78. Musk wants the huge stores of Lithium... that's right.

[Initech]

94. I wish our media could hammer this point home.

But until they do, they're all complicit in this dangerous lunatics' quest.

[JustAnotherGen]

92. Hmmm

I hope the EU comes together early next week and lay down the law for the two rogue countries - Russia and the US.

[Meowmee]

96. Don't think they will stop at Ukraine

Whose next?

[lapfog_1]

99. Latvia, Lithuania, Romania... Moldova

eventually Poland.

Take your pick. I vote for Moldova.

[Tommy Carcetti]

103. Transnestria gives them the perfect motive.

And they’ll try to seize Odessa on the way there as well, to cut Ukraine off from the sea.

[Emrys]

110. There's some unfinished business in Georgia

Unless Trump's machinations grant the Russians secure Black Sea ports in Crimea or the Sea of Azov, Russia's port in Abkhazia will become even more crucial.

Then all they'll need is some ships that are still afloat to use it.

[CentralMass]

101. We will have to see if Europe and Nato allow Putin and the Mango Malefactor to dictate the terms of surrender to Ukraine

[Red Mountain]

107. Germany delivering 6,000 HX-2 (swarm capable) AI attack drones to Ukraine

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220036157

Won't happen tomorrow, of course.

Not sure what this indicates, if anything.

My gut is that while the US (under Trump) is moving closer to your viewpoint, Wargamer, the Europeans are taking a slightly more hard line approach.

Negotiations may be inevitable from either perspective but the end result of the two approaches is a matter of opinion.

I think the Russians smell our (Trump administration) weakness. That won't end well for Europe and they know it.

[Red Mountain]

108. I should add.....

I think the Europeans are correct. Anybody who thinks the Russians are going to step back as if nothing happened once a peace treaty is signed are delusional.

They are going to rebuild and try again. Perhaps the Baltic states next time. Depends on how far they think they can push our new policy of appeasement.

[alarimer]

117. The only negotiation is Putin giving up.

Nothing else is acceptable (well, apart from Putin dying).

Trump and Putin can fuck right off.

[BannonsLiver]

124. You want the party down the hall.

Another roaring success of an op

[WarGamer]

129. It's a great OP... some of the respondents are the top notch of DU...

[WheelWalker]

128. "Maybe" I am reminded of the Parable of the Farmer and the Horse.