Gary Marcus: Is Elon Musk "dumb"? Maybe not, but there's something systematically wrong

[highplainsdem]

Gary wrote this Substack because he agreed with an AOC post about Musk.

https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/is-elon-musk-dumb

-snip-

She said (if I read her correctly) that Musk is a bullshit artist who pretends to know a lot of things that he doesn’t. That’s certainly been my experience in his commentary on AI, and of late I have seen him comment as if he were knowledgeable, on just about every topic imaginable, often spouting things that simply aren’t true. So if you ask me, her claim that he oversells (and overestimates) his own knowledge seems fair.

-snip-

But I think that Musk has consistently made a dumb set of choices – largely stemming from a mix of four cognitive errors: (a) overestimating his own intelligence, (b) undervaluing the expertise of others, (c) relying too much on his own echo chamber, without the slightest effort to question what he is fed, and (d) underestimating how hard some of his errors will be to fix.

That mix in turn has lead him to make a lot of dumb decisions that are costing the world immensely. I dearly wish that Musk would use whatever raw intelligence he has to pull himself out of the mental state that he has placed himself in — for the sake of us all.

I am not at all hopeful. Intelligence, no matter how great or small, mixed with poor intellectual self-discipline, enormous ego, and enormous power has historically proven to be a toxic brew.

[eppur_se_muova]

1. As I said before: maybe "IQ smart", but "people dumb".

He does not know how to deal with other people at all appropriately. The worst possible kind of person to put in charge of a significant organization, where dealing with people is pretty much all you do.

The same applies to Turnip, except for the "IQ smart" part.

[Jit423]

17. Has anyone really seen his IQ? nt

[eppur_se_muova]

23. We should demand his IQ test results -- the long form !

Of course, he probably someone to take if for him.

[Johonny]

24. Actually Ive read the opposite

That he is likely of average intelligence. Just made a lot of pump and dump paper money. He used to be good at pumping stock. And now he pumps crypto. But his knowledge of science, math, reading is quite average. He wants to be seen as a genius IQ. That is certain. It is all part of the scam.

[Orrex]

28. I know and trust someone who's dealt with him in a professional capacity

She described him as "really not all that smart."

[RockRaven]

2. The dumb/cognitive errors would be less bad is he wasn't also deeply DEEPLY dishonest.

People give guys like Musk and TCF way WAY too much credit for believing the nonsense they babble and undersell how often they are just purposely lying.

[MiHale]

3. Just asking...

Could it be related to the drug usage we think he may do? Addiction, if there is any, does lead down the same path of bad decisions.

[RJ-MacReady]

4. he's an idiot

Lets drop this myth this idiot is a "genius". He isn't even close and it's obvious when he speaks. I don't even buy into him having a "high IQ". He's a moron with money that's it.

[uponit7771]

31. EXACTLY THIS...and a pinch of tent hands to go along with all the moron behavior

[Karadeniz]

5. Must also be a psychopath. Those criteria fit the symptoms of psychopath

behavior and are all what have been noted by mental health experts in Trump.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

18. They changed the name to "Anti Social Personality Disorder."

Does NOT have the same ring as Sociopath or Psychopath. The leaders in the psych field change the names of disorders when people start using it in derogatory ways. Idiot, Moron, Imbecile used to be actual diagnostic terms but they changed them all to “Developmentally Disabled” and then use their IQ level number for all of that.

Sometimes I wonder if they just don’t change some of the terms so all of us in the psych field have to toss out our old Diagnostic Manuals (which cost a ton of money) and to confuse those of us in the field. I was in the second year of grad school when they switched from the DSM 4 to the DSM 5. We were lucky they still used the DSM 4 for our license exams. But my DSM 4 is now outdated.

[Karadeniz]

21. I wish they hadnt changed the term! Antisocial isnt toxic enough sounding,

like it could be applied to a loner !!!!

[Basso8vb]

6. He's a dipshit.

Zero intelligence.

[brush]

7. I understand that stainless steel cybertrruck that rusts is his design...

it's cargo bed is nowhere near what regular pickups carry, and it's ugly as hell.

I don't call that smart...nor were his Nazi salutes and chain saw antics.

A great example of the Dunning-Kruger effect in action.

[Emrys]

8. Musk's intelligence will always be up for debate

But even a veritable Eistein needs access to accurate information to formulate viable opinions.

Musk spends pretty much all day (and night) every day on Twitter and apparently restricts his input of information to whatever his pets and sycophants are spouting.

His just typing a facile, cryptic reply to some asinine comment from an anonymous twat is for some reason given the status of a papal edict. It may be some form of entertainment, but it's got little or no relation to reality except for the serial fuckups he's making.

[Bev54]

9. He certainly isn't smart, just rich

[swong19104]

10. Musk is the quintessential

example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

[Aviation Pro]

11. Which is why his rocket penises blow up

He forces some very talented people to rush through the engineering and compliance process to prove he can ejaculate one of them into the ether.

Just wait until a couple of astronauts are lost because of his frenetic energy.

[dchill]

12. To put it simply ...

He doesn't know what he's talking about.

[JadedButHopeful]

13. As Rick James might say...

Ketamine is a hell of a drug.

Beyond ketamine Musk is on record taking a range of illegal drugs:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/elon-musks-drug-becoming-problem-200613900.html

Combine the drugs with infinite wealth and narcissistic personality disorder and you have a toxic brew.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

14. Savant syndrome that a lot of autistic people have. (formerly "idiot savant")

Savant syndrome is a phenomenon where someone demonstrates exceptional aptitude in one domain, such as art or mathematics, despite significant social or intellectual impairment. Those with the condition generally have a neurodevelopmental condition, such as autism, or have experienced a brain injury.

They stopped calling it “idiot savant” because that was deemed to be too insulting.

[ProfessorGAC]

15. But, Where Is The "Savant" Part

He took gobs of family money, threw it walls that interested him, (with nothing to lose) and luckily hit it big on a few.
Smart investors are those that start with a pittance and turn it into a fortune.
He's just a rich kid who has had good luck. I don't see evidence of exceptional ability in any one area.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

19. Yeah - I think a lot of luck and inherited money had a huge impact.

A LOT of luck. He may also have that “ability to manipulate” type intelligence that Trump and other con men have.

[ProfessorGAC]

20. That's Certainly Probable

Shrewdness and intellect aren't necessarily synonymous

[meadowlander]

25. Less than 10% of autistic people have savant level skills.

I don't know why you're dragging archaic terminology or what you mean with your last sentence except you seem to be put out about no longer being able to call autistic people idiots anymore?

Anyway, what a lot of autistic people do have is spikey skills profiles. Very good at some things, very shit at others because their brain hyper-focuses in some areas. So lots of autistic people have deep knowledge in special interest areas but then struggle with "common sense" in others. It's basically the stereotype of the absent-minded professor or Sherlock Holmes not knowing/caring that the Earth revolves around the sun because it's never been relevant to his specific area of interest before.

Elon does have a very characteristically autistic focus on the trees and not the woods. Autistic people often start by gathering lots of their own data and then analysing and drawing conclusions from it but struggle with "blue skies" thinking or starting by seeing the whole system. He's focused on individual cuts to achieve a single-minded goal to reduce spending but hasn't thought through to what those people do and the flow on effects of removing them which is often going to be more expensive than any savings made by firing them.

[RockRaven]

29. Identify the domain in this supposed case.

What exactly is his exceptional aptitude?

[Fil1957]

16. He's not the only one,

he's just the worst, most destructive example. There are others (usually male tech bros) who have above average intelligence, but are not geniuses who have made smart financial decisions combined with getting lucky and ended up extremely rich. This makes them think they are much smarter than they actually are; are superior to others and therefore should rule the world. All this just 'cause they made a shitload of money,

[totodeinhere]

22. His IQ is believed to be between 155 and 160.

He has developed some products like Starlink and SpaceX which required a lot of smarts to pull off. But then he got on a destructive political crusade which may lead to his eventual undoing.

https://brainmanager.io/blog/cognitive/what-is-elon-musk-iq

[RockRaven]

26. Believed by who?

And define "developed" because he hasn't done any of the engineering.

[totodeinhere]

33. I was just quoting the article that I linked to.

I don't know why we would object to the assertion that he is intelligent. Intelligence and good character are not the same thing. History is replete with evil geniuses.

[uponit7771]

32. Nothing in space x is new or reliable, most taken from NASA

[andym]

27. Poster child for the Dunning Kruger effect

Intelligent. But poor judgement due to overestimating his knowledge.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

30. Systemically, not "systematically"

Systemically, not "systematically".

The former is that the system (Muck's drug-addled nonsense) is flawed.

The latter term is applicable to Muck's actions. fElon is systematically going through departments one after the other with a stupid chainsaw.

"Systematically" means methodically.
"Systemically" means relating to the internal function of the system (Muscolini's).