The Blue State Exodus Should Scare Democrats: The electoral consequences could be massive.

[Celerity]

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-blue-state-exodus-should-scare

In 2021, California’s population declined for the first time since earning statehood in 1850. In 2022, it declined again. And then again in 2023. For a state historically defined by limitless opportunity and an ever-growing population, three straight years of decline delivered a cold dose of reality: things weren't working. The Golden State, of course, is not alone. Since Covid, the biggest blue states have dramatically lagged behind the biggest Republican states in population growth. Between 2020 and 2024, California, New York, and Illinois each lost more than 100,000 thousand residents. Florida and Texas, meanwhile, both gained around 2 million residents. The disparity is shocking.

It is tempting to chalk up the unprecedented decline to Covid. Now that the pandemic has faded, numbers will even out, some might argue. Nothing more than a blip. But the most recent figures confirm that the reasons behind the blue-state population decline run much deeper than Covid. Even though case counts are a thing of the past, populous red states continue to lap their blue counterparts. Between July 2023 and July 2024, Florida and Texas gained more than 1 million residents combined. Illinois, New York, and California barely broke 400,000 cumulatively.

Though certainly exacerbated by the virus, policy failures are ultimately at fault. Disastrous housing shortages, needlessly burdensome environmental regulations, the mind-boggling mess that is California’s high-speed rail project. The examples go on and on. Thankfully, left-of-center intellectuals are coming to terms with a much-needed course correction (though some have been there for a while). Marc Dunkelman’s Why Nothing Works and Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson’s Abundance both attempt to address the problem—and a broader “Abundance Agenda” seems to slowly be gaining purchase with some policymakers.

But most elected Democrats remain oblivious or even contemptuous of the reforms needed to right the ship. If the policy benefits are an insufficient carrot, then perhaps the frightening electoral costs will jolt Democrats into action: if blue-state populations don’t rebound soon, the 2030s presidential map could start to look very dicey. Estimates from the American Redistricting Project predict that California is on track to lose three House seats—and three electoral votes—after 2030’s reapportionment. New York could drop 2 seats. Minnesota, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Illinois all might lose a seat. Meanwhile, Texas and Florida are each projected to gain a whopping 4 seats. Idaho and Utah, too, will tack on an additional seat.

snip

[mwmisses4289]

1. May want to watch those two

states that are supposedly gaining people. Right now in Florida, people are leaving, due to hurricanes, housing and insurance costs, and state politics. Same with Texas, although in texas it is mostly because of the politics.

[Self Esteem]

12. The evidence does not back any of that up.

Both were two of the largest growing states in 2024:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024/population-estimates-international-migration.html

There's very little evidence people are leaving either state at a number greater than people moving to those states.

[Mariana]

17. Florida has been the biggest MAGAt magnet in the country for years.

Retired Republican voting Boomers have flooded into the state from all over the country. Places like The Villages have been growing like weeds.

[John Farmer]

47. Judging by recent turnout,

places like The Villages may no longer be reliably Republican.

[Mariana]

48. I don't know why you would think so.

2024 General Election results:

Sumter County FL
Trump 68.3%
Harris 30.8%

Marion County FL
Trump 65.5%
Harris 33.8%

Lake County FL
Trump 62%
Harris 37.3%

https://www.ocala.com/elections/results/2024-11-05/florida

Turnout:

Sumter County 84%
Marion County 81%
Lake County 89%

https://www.thevillagesdailysun.com/news/in_todays_daily_sun/tri-county-area-dominates-voter-turnout/article_0812098e-9c0c-11ef-a4d8-a7f474e0cd19.html

[S/V Loner]

25. I think Climate Change will be our friend in the...

future as far as the southern States go. There is only so much pounding that those States can take before people start leaving them for better climates. I have friends that moved to Florida years ago and they have plans to leave. On top of the the FAFO reality of what is happening in the government will eventually slip in to those States citizens.

[bronxiteforever]

53. Florida is in the climate change bullseye

Insurance companies ain’t coming back. Home owners on the coasts risk all to rebuild without insurance.
People tend to move where they can survive. There are only so many times you can get wiped out and rebuild.
Salt creep will damage crops. Good luck with the orange groves. Miami will be under water by the end of the century if not sooner.
Ain’t nobody stopping the sea rise. It is inevitable and Texas will see rising temps that will reach wet bulb range. Politics comes after survival. Those states have a limited shelf life and it is getting clearer each year.

[pinkstarburst]

31. This is simply not true

People keep posting "oh, everyone is leaving because they hate Texas's politics" and it's true, blue voters are unhappy with the politics in Texas (my husband and I certainly are.)

But the reality is, people are still moving to Texas in droves because they want to be able to afford a house. Period. You can't buy a house in California unless you have a spare million dollars. Same goes in many other blue states. Most young couples don't have this luxury. You have young couples who actually want to have kids (gasp!) and you have young couples who don't have kids but want to have a house anyway! And they are moving to places like Texas or Arkansas or North Carolina or Tennessee where they may not love the politics, but they love the idea of having a yard and their own house. So they pick a little blueberry democratic city in a sea of red state, and it's okay for them. (Austin, Houston, Dallas.)

But absolutely, this population shift could cost us greatly and could make it where all the efforts in the swing states don't matter.

Gavin Newsom has been the governor of California for how long now? Maybe instead of platforming right wing idiots on his podcast, he should do something about California's housing crisis and unaffordability problems so that we don't lose all those electoral votes.

[The Madcap]

2. Cost of housing seems to be a major factor.

Housing in the red areas is typically much cheaper...for now. The insurance issue could change that in some states.

[MichMan]

32. Don't see insurance doing anything but going way up in California

[Grins]

52. It's going to go up everywhere!

Insurance companies are national. Costs are spread out.

Also true of car insurance and Trump tariffs: cost of parts go up, so do costs of repairs, so will insurance premiums to pay for those costs.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

44. Housing prices in Florida are going down. People are tired of the hurricanes.

Especially people who live on the Gulf Coast of Florida. In Naples, almost every mansion on the beaches got trashed. On a lot of the border islands like Fort Myers Beach homes and businesses got totally wiped out twice. Not a thing was left.

[meadowlander]

51. Also post-Covid it's a lot easier and more commonplace for people to work from home.

Why pay Silicon Valley or LA rents when you can do your tech (or other creative class) job anywhere?

[Ace Rothstein]

3. CA and NY need more housing yesterday.

But that will only slow down the loss at this point. The damage is already done.

[travelingthrulife]

4. Nonsense.

[Celerity]

7. No, it is quite a real possibility (to what level remains to be seen, but we will extremely likely lose net seats)

Btw, thanks for your deep and lucid rebuttal.

You must have used an extraordinary amount of effort on it.

[Liberal In Texas]

5. The fact is blue states tend to be more expensive to live in.

And their desirability makes housing much higher and a higher cost of living in general.

[displacedvermoter]

6. A "Liberal Patriot" still tied to his American Enterprise Institute

roots. Read the comments to the several articles I looked at and there are just the usual criticisms about Biden destroying America and Trump Derangement Syndrome running amok.

I am taking his warnings with a big grain of salt. Agree with posters here, let us see how long people keep flocking to Red States once Federal programs get gutted that help make life liveable in certain hellhole states lacking in non-federal services and benefits, and with insurance rates soaring, while lax environmental protections and overdevelopment make things nastier and nastier.

[Celerity]

10. other articles from different sources on the same subject

Big Changes Ahead for Voting Maps After Next Census

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/big-changes-ahead-voting-maps-after-next-census

Democrats’ crisis of the future: The biggest states that back them are shrinking

https://apnews.com/article/electoral-college-democrats-2030-census-election-republican-0d3c8e8d34cbfc87412a21796dddbd38

Texas, Florida, Arizona and Idaho likely to gain House seats after 2030 census

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5053936-us-census-house-seats-2030/

Democrats’ future crisis: The biggest states that back them are shrinking

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democrats-future-crisis-the-biggest-states-that-back-them-are-shrinking

[newdeal2]

8. Texas and Florida do not have cheap housing anymore. At least in the major metros

If cheap housing is your only criteria, there's plenty of options in the midwest and north east. And don't blame high-speed rail, that's just a red herring.

No, the reason the south is more desirable is simply weather + taxes + jobs (which may be due to tax rates). It will be very hard to cut tax rates in blue union states that have pension obligations and spend money on healthcare and protecting the environment.

[mwmisses4289]

9. I have also read various articles

where people who moved to Texas and Florida moved out within two to five years, citing state politics as the main reason they moved out.

[Mariana]

19. What percentage of people who move there leave within two to five years?

[mwmisses4289]

29. Articles didn't specify.

Enough that the various outlets reporting on it felt it was worth writing a story about.

[pinkstarburst]

33. I live in one of those areas people are moving to

I can tell you that our population growth is BOOMING. People are moving to Texas in such huge numbers that infrastructure can't keep up. People are moving to areas like Austin, Houston and Dallas in such huge numbers that it is straining the water supply. People are moving there in such huge numbers that they can't build housing fast enough.

I'm sure they found people who were unhappy and moved back because it wouldn't be an interesting story if they only presented one side, but as someone who lives here, we're seeing huge population growth and the census numbers indicate that there is huge growth.

[Mariana]

38. I remember the headlines about how the Evangelical Christians were turning on Trump.

Sure, they found a few people to interview, but statistically it was nothing. These stories about people moving out of Florida and Texas remind me of that.

I don't know who's going to Texas, but most of the people who've been moving to Florida in recent years have been MAGAts. Hence the change from Obama winning the state twice to DeSantis winning by 20 points in 2022.

[pinkstarburst]

34. They may not have "cheap" housing

As in, you can't get a mansion for $300K the way you could 15 years ago, but you can get a nice 3-4 bedroom house with a huge yard in a safe neighborhood in a suburb of the major cities. In California, the same house would easily cost you $1.2 million.

[markodochartaigh]

11. Of course many red states are terribly gerrymandered,

and, anecdotally, one hears that it is more conservative Californians and New Yorkers who are moving to Texas and Florida. And the Senate soon will be controlled by 35 small, mostly red states, leaving the 15 largest, mostly blue states on the sidelines.

I think that the only answer is what it has been all along. Voter education. In. Every. State. It certainly is difficult when the reich-wing has popular propaganda networks on TV, in the churches, in the workplace, and in the zeitgeist. But maybe the Democratic party can seize the moment as millions of people are set adrift by Republican policies as the economy is crashed, on purpose, and people are left without the social safety net that should be provided in a civilized society. Fear and hunger can wake people up. But the Democratic party has to be ready and able, fear and hunger also make it difficult for people to reason.

[Mariana]

39. Gerrymandering doesn't affect statewide elections

such as those for President, Governor, or Senators. It screws up the House for sure.

[markodochartaigh]

40. "Gerrymandering doesn't affect statewide elections..."

I don't agree with this. Gerrymandering is one of several tools that the Republicans use to control the outcome of elections. This control is not a secret, probably most people know about it. And this control, in itself, is a method of delegitimizing elections. And when elections are delegitimized turnout is depressed.

[Mariana]

41. Please explain how they can gerrymander a whole state.

It's not like they can redraw the state lines the way they can redraw the districts within the state.

[markodochartaigh]

43. Gerrymandering any part of the state, in itself,

causes people to question whether it is worthwhile to vote. I think that this drives down voter participation rates.

[Dan]

56. let me try a little to answer this

Based on my limited knowledge from listening/hearing/seeing GIS (Geographic Information Systems) Tech working on Election boundaries.

If the State is run by either D or R, they define or dictate to the local Counties about how they would like geographic boundaries define (a little difficult to explain or understand). The Counties that run the Elections define the boundaries based on things like School Districts, Water Districts, etc. And somewhere in the mix are political districts. Think North Carolina where you can have Democrats winning the popular vote but not obtaining the representation in their local (and by default Federal) districts.

And actually looking at your question, you have stated the answer.

[Mariana]

57. You haven't explained how that affects statewide races.

If a Democrat wins the popular vote for President, Governor, or Senator in North Carolina, that candidate wins the election in that state.

[Dan]

58. You are correct that it is damn near impossible to Gerrymander

A state or redraw state lines is impossible.

But, you can impact Federal Representation on a Congressional Level (House) by redrawing the lines.

You can impact State representations by redrawing the lines.

But the STATE - such as Governor, President or Senate cannot be impacted, but the House Congressional representatives can be impacted.

[drmeow]

13. What these analysis seem to assume

is as people move from blue states to red states, those red states will continue to show the same voting patterns. They will gain seats and electoral college votes but still vote red. It assumes that only conservatives are moving out of the blue states. As Arizona's population grew, it became more purple.

Without an understanding of the political leanings of the people who are moving, the population changes may be significant or they may not.

It also disregards the reality that Republicans keep stealing the election so who lives where is irrelevant!

[Mariana]

20. We've seen what happened in Florida.

Retired Boomers moved there from all over the country. Turns out most of them are MAGAts, and they have turned Florida from purple to solid red.

[Self Esteem]

24. Florida has shifted right in each of the last three presidential elections.

I think there is ample evidence that the population is becoming more conservative, not less. The Democrats haven't won the state at the presidential level since 2012 and since that election, it's not only gotten more red at the presidential level each cycle, Democrats continue to lose ground in other statewide races.

Florida used to be a swing state, and one Democrats could win at the gubernatorial and senate level, and now it's not.

[Ace Rothstein]

27. Texas was more red than New York was blue.

People have been talking about a blue Texas for over a decade but it just isn't going to happen anytime soon.

[pinkstarburst]

36. People assume Texas will be blue/purple because of Hispanics

because they mistakenly assume Hispanics vote all as one block and that a middle class Hispanic person whose family has been in the US for 2 or 3 generations is going to relate to migrants who just crossed the border yesterday from Venezuela. Hispanic voters tend to be very conservative and as Texas is now majority Hispanic, it's one reason Texas is only getting redder, not purpler.

[Swede]

14. With global warming, both Texas and Florida will be difficult and expensive to live in.

House insurance is skyrocketing in Florida. Texas had over 90 days of plus 100F.

[hatrack]

18. Toss in a couple of Cat-5 strikes up the Galveston ship channel, or through Tampa Bay, and things will change . . .

. . . and change quickly.

It's only a matter of time.

[Silent Type]

15. Hopefully, those moving from blue states will instill more Democratic principles in red states.

[OnionPatch]

16. If democratic voters move to red states

Wouldn’t that affect the vote there? Maybe they could turn Florida more blue?

[EdmondDantes_]

21. They haven't done so yet

And Florida seems to be getting more Republican. Granted Florida has had Trump on the ballot the last 3 presidential, but Desantis won by 19 points in 2022 against a former Florida governor.

[Hellbound Hellhound]

23. New York was closer to turning Red than Florida was to turning Blue last election.

Think about the ramifications of a red New York, caused largely by the NYC and Rochester exoduses. Population keeps growing but more and more city folk keep leaving. How many red states would we need to convert just to break even on losing New York electorally?

[Mariana]

49. The only people who can safely move to those states

are straight, white, Christian native born American citizens with no children of school age. Women should be sterile. Retirees seem to be the best candidates, generally speaking.

[dsc]

22. I find it hard to believe that NC wouldn't gain a seat

we have seen quite rapid growth. I have no idea at which state's expense it would be.

[GreatGazoo]

26. Ah but when Trump annexes Canada...

permanent super majority!

Cue the Monty Python music. "Always look on the bright side of death..."

[58Sunliner]

28. "needlessly burdensome environmental regulations"-This says it all for me.🙄

"The Census Bureau said Florida, California and Texas had the largest gains from net international migration"-Not from blue states.

[tintinvotes]

30. We'll see

The red states will be hurt the most by Federal government cuts, because they take more from the gov than blue states. I've also heard that Canada, EU and the rest of the free world are about to stop trading and traveling to the states that voted for this monstrosity. From what I've heard the liquor industry in KY are already feeling it.

[NowsTheTime]

35. "Why don't we knock it off with them negative waves?"

Sorry, I'm just getting a little emotional...

...it won't happen, but if we could just get enough Dem's to move to Wyoming..

[JCMach1]

37. Jobs and housing are the only reason i am in TX

[pinkstarburst]

42. It's a big reason lots of people are in TX

People are going to move where there are jobs and affordable housing. Some of the blue states have good jobs and great entertainment and weather and stuff to do on the weekend, but the housing is completely unaffordable. What can the blue state governors do to course correct before this bites democrats in the butt in 2032?

[John Farmer]

45. NC should be considered a blue state

but it's legislative districts are effectively gerrymandered to advantage that the state senate ios mostly republican while the democratic candidates actually got move votes. That and statewide offices usually go democratic (the last two senatorial seats elections going GOP notwithstanding.)

[John Farmer]

46. NC is a blue state

but it's legislative districts are effectively gerrymandered to advantage that the state senate ios mostly republican while the democratic candidates actually got move votes. That and statewide offices usually go democratic (the last two senatorial seats elections going GOP notwithstanding.)

[Celerity]

55. NC has only voted for a Dem POTUS twice in the past 60 years (Carter in 1976, and Obama in 2008) so, no it's not Blue

Also, in the past 50 years, post-1974 , it has only elected 3 Democratic US Senators, all one-termers. Sanford in 1986 (plus a few weeks when he won a special election (held the same day he won a new full term) to finish the short time left for the dead Rethug, East)


then

Edwards in 1998, and Hagan in 2008.

[senseandsensibility]

50. California is a HUGE mind bogglingly diverse state

and yes, we have maga here. They're in the minority, but they're here and the sheer numbers of our population mean that there's a lot of them. I'm a lifelong Californian and the people I know who have left are either maga or they're cashing in on the extreme appreciation of their homes. Many older people have seen homes they paid 90,000 for in the eighties appreciate to 1.5 million dollars or more. If they're retired, it is very tempting to cash in on that. But the fact that someone will pay that much for what are basically average tract homes tells you that California is still a very desirable place to live.

[SSJVegeta]

54. Stuff like this is pure noise. The thing that should concern democrats is

Whether they are speaking to the needs of the vast majority of people -and reaching them. Cause if they aren't, the electoral vote counts in "Blue" or "red" states won't matter.