Stock futures rebound on talks of de-escalation

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

Futures up 1100 points.???

My record button set to catch any MSM talking heads "well it just took a few days" "maybe something to tarrifs"

Of course fox news will do the "we told you so" if market does in fact go green today.

Also what de-escalation talks??

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Of course. De-escalate the trade war that you started. These are games to scare people

and screw with their emotions, and to distract from destruction of the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Public opinion is fickle, fear and relief, fear and relief, yet each cycle you're losing something else.

[GreenWave]

2. They also panic people to sell low, so others can buy low.

[Scrivener7]

4. But I'm not seeing any evidence of de-escalation. He increased the tariffs on China yesterday.

[bucolic_frolic]

8. That's correct. I misspoke. Create the narrative that you de-escalate the trade war.

It's all perception. Reality is what the Fuehrer says it is.

[EdmondDantes_]

13. The EU has already said they're willing to go no tariffs

And at least the administration is claiming that 70 countries are looking for talks. Whether that's accurate or not is another question. Also given any lowered tariffs aren't going to address the trade deficits which is why Trump wants tariffs, it's unclear if he will be satisfied with the nominal win that doesn't change anything.

But there are signs that de-escalation will happen and the market often overreacts to news good or bad.

[C_U_L8R]

3. Wishful thinking?

This is what passes for financial strategy these days?

[Self Esteem]

10. Yes. The markets clearly don't fully buy Trump will go through with all this.

It's why the loss we saw yesterday wasn't as bad as many thought over the weekend. They clearly believe that this is some game of chicken and a deal will be reached.

None of this saves the market long-term but it gives runway in the short-term before anything is finalized and implemented permanently.

Ironically, the market's tepid reaction to Trump's tariff rhetoric is probably helping him dig in even more since we've yet to see the type of collapse that fuels massive panic (the 2008 crash saw a loss of 8% on October, 15, which at the time was the largest percentage decrease since Black Monday - and before that, the Great Depression).

There were multiple other days with 7% losses.

Right now, the decline we've seen hasn't even managed to break into the top20 all-time in terms of percentage (total points is misleading as the stock market is much higher today than, say, 20 years ago).

So, Trump probably believes he can weather this storm ... until the markets realize there will be no deal and he's set going forward. But even that could be muddied as the markets assume after the tariffs go through that they only last for weeks/months before they're reversed for some reason.

Clearly the markets are acting from the perspective that these tariffs will not go through in their current capacity. Problem is, there's no reason to believe this and the market response isn't devastating enough at the moment it seems to scarw Trump or Republicans away from the ledge. That's not good.

[Doodley]

5. So last night, Trump didn't threaten to escalate the trade war by increasing China tariffs by an additional 50%

Sounds like yet more fake news rumors to manipulate the stock market.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

6. Bingo

My thoughts

[NCDem47]

7. My portfolio lost 5.5% in value since last Wednesday

Even if someone came in and waved a magic wand to put everthing back, it would take a few months to recover that loss. Best case scenario. Absolute best case scenario. For me, that's without buying or selling anything. Any fool (not you OP) that thinks we are going to hit a tear to go back to last Tuesday is very delusional. Markets crash in a day, but they don't rebound overnight. There was real harm caused by Trump.

[Scrivener7]

11. I got out on inauguration day, but I calculated it would have been about

13% for me if I hadn't.

[onenote]

14. I didn't make any changes, but my principal retirement account is only down 3 % since January 1

And only 4.9% since February 1. I'm actually still up over 5% since April 2024.

Of course,I have other, non-retirement accounts that aren't doing as well.

[Lovie777]

9. Just heard on tv that shithole will be doing more outrageous tariffs..............

[onenote]

12. Bounce backs like this are pretty common

For example, on October 30, the day after "Black Monday" and "Black Tuesday" -- October 28-29, 1929 -- when the market dropped by 12.8% and then 11.7 percent, the market had a one day rally where it regained most of the losses from the day before. It doesn't mean the slide won't continue after a brief pause.

[the_liberal_grandpa]

15. No doubt that the market will continue to fall

Earnings reports begin this week. While some may be good the guidance will be zilch or opaque in information because companies have no way of knowing what will happen next.

When unemployment and inflation numbers come out and show a spike the market will tank again.

When he raises tariffs on China tomorrow to over 100% the market will tank

When we attack another country to wag the dog the market will crash

If China were to sell, or threaten to sell a good chunk of our debt that it owns the market will crash

Wall Street and many Americans have what they call a "Lack of Imagination" as to what is happening and what it means. Because things have "always worked out in the long run" we bet our money and our lives that that will continue when, we all know that we are dealing with a psychotic lunatic who cares nothing about Americans or democracy and, as those who voted for him like to say "He's only doing what he said he would do".

“It’s tragic how the lack of imagination so often shapes our defeat.”

Janny Wurts, To Ride Hell’s Chasm