China warns trade war could go beyond tariffs as U.S. Admiral warns China's aggressive maneuvers around Taiwan...

[pat_k]

.. are not exercises, they are rehearsals

Echoes of history?

It is arguable that America First isolationism coupled with the imposition of trade restrictions and sanctions, led Japan to believe it had little choice but to secure resources and expand its influence through military force, leading to the attack on Pearl Harbor.

Will the 47 regime's America First isolationism and aggressive tariffs against China prompt China to attack Taiwan? Chinese propaganda is certainly pushing that way with sentiments like this: "Since China and the U.S. have already severed economic and trade relations, why not take this opportunity to recover Taiwan?"

From willripleycnn
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DIU_jGtvSr2/

And still 47 refuses to commit to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression.

Ominous signs for Taiwan's future are adding up.

Earlier this month from NYTimes:
China’s New Barges Could Make a Tough Task Easier: Invading Taiwan
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/world/asia/china-invasion-barges-taiwan.html?unlocked_article_code=1._E4.38qG.Ws9jCsHsOoHd&smid=url-share

That the U.S. would not only fail to defend Taiwan, but actually be a prime mover of the conditions that prompt an attack is unthinkable. But here we are, inundated with the terrible consequences of the unthinkable acts of psychopathic president leading a clown posse hellbent on capturing or destroying every institution of our constitutional democracy.

[Buckeyeblue]

1. Doesn't Taiwan have an intricate defense system in place?

I always thought that was the biggest deterrent to any invasion. China knows there will be heavy losses and it would not be quick.

I know that a promised US defense has also been a deterrent. But it's never been clear what that would look like. I'm not sure how popular that would be in this country.

[pat_k]

2. CFR summarized the challenges last year. The new barges alter the analysis.

I think we are looking at an extremely volitile situation. And our interests in deterring and, if necessary, defending Taiwan against attack are, if anything, even clearer than our interests in Ukraine.

Council on Foreign Relations
Why China Would Struggle to Invade Taiwan
June 12, 2024
https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan

The above article include links to resources on U.S. Taiwan relations and policy that include assumptions which are unlikely to hold under 47.

China would need to shift military assets to its eastern coast and undertake other visible preparations for an invasion, which Taiwan and the United States would likely be able to detect.

It is unclear from reports the extent to which these sorts of specific activities are taking place, but there has clearly been a remarkable escalation.

U.S. Naval Institute
10/01/2025
China Suddenly Building Fleet Of Special Barges Suitable For Taiwan Landings
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-building-fleet-of-special-barges-suitable-for-taiwan-landings/

U.S. Naval Institute
Chinese Military Wraps Intimidation Drills Off Taiwan
April 2, 2025 7:24 PM
https://news.usni.org/2025/04/02/chinese-military-wraps-intimidation-drills-off-taiwan

U.S. Naval Institute
INDOPACOM CO Paparo Outlines Risk of Western Pacific Conflict
April 10, 2025
https://news.usni.org/2025/04/10/indopacom-co-paparo-outlines-risk-of-western-pacific-conflict

War in the Western Pacific would shatter global economies, run the risk of spreading nuclear conflict and leave half a million “deaths of despair” in its wake, the senior American commander in the Indo-Pacific told the Senate Armed Services Committee Thursday.

When asked why Americans should care about Taiwan’s future, Adm. Samuel Paparo said closing the waterway separating it from China, one of the world’s major trading channels, could be more devastating than the Great Depression in the 1930s globally. It would also expose the United States’ dependence on Taipei for semiconductor production, essential to modernizing and growing the domestic economy.

Chinese aggressive military actions toward the self-governing island have increased by 300 percent. As he has noted in the past, these are “not exercises but rehearsals” for a possible forcible takeover.

Paparo's dire warnings needs to be heeded. The article doesn't address the role that a trade war with China plays into all this, but Paparo does note "that the Trump administration’s decision to scale back or eliminate USAID would benefit China. 'I continue to advocate for it,' he said. Otherwise, Beijing 'would seize' the opportunity to win more influence by responding to natural disasters and humanitarian crises."

It seems to be that the 47 regime is taking every step it possibly can to escalate, rather than de-escalate, the chances of war in the Western Pacific. And perhaps that is the point.

Institute for the Study of War
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, April 11, 2025
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-april-11-2025

However things evolve, I think the only thing we can say with absolutely certainty is that 47's new Navy Secretary John Phelan, Hegseth, 47 and the other crazy people "advising" him are incapable of addressing the challenges and are in fact likely to take us down a path to unimaginable disaster.