the "two quarters of negative growth" definition is more what the media latches on to because it's simple, but obviously leaves much to be desired. first and foremost, the arbitrary cutoff dates of the quarters can mask major changes in economic activity. in this case, we very likely contracted in march, but january's activity (including a big build-up of inventories in advance of anticipated tariffs) may have been enough to make the first quarter as a whole positive, even if contraction started in march or even mid-to-late february.
here's NBER's take, from their q&a:
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https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-procedure-frequently-asked-questions
Q: What is a recession? What is an expansion?
A: The NBER's traditional definition of a recession is that it is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The committee's view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another. For example, in the case of the February 2020 peak in economic activity, we concluded that the drop in activity had been so great and so widely diffused throughout the economy that the downturn should be classified as a recession even if it proved to be quite brief. The committee subsequently determined that the trough occurred two months after the peak, in April 2020. An expansion is a period when the economy is not in a recession. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief. However, the time that it takes for the economy to return to its previous peak level of activity may be quite extended.
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the covid contractions is a great example. it was the sharpest contraction america has ever had. it would be ridiculous to ignore it simply because it didn't last 6 months or 2 quarters.
= new reply since forum marked as read
