Kindleberger Chart premonition of tRump trade death spiral legacy, but in a different way

[Bernardo de La Paz]

Here is Kindleberger's chart from his 1983 textbook. I think I have seen a similar chart in Galbraith's earlier book on the Great Depression though might have been less comprehensive.

What may be different this time is that this one was begun, suddenly, by one man. This means 1) it is largely reversible, depending on how long he is allowed to persist, and 2) the rest of the world may fare better than the US because they are free to trade among themselves; America Alone.

For the crowd: how applicable do you think this is, and how might it be different this time?

[biophile]

1. It's very interesting-many variables today are different

Todays world economy has China as a major factor

America is now predominantly a service economy

The organization of oil producing nations wasn’t a thing back in 1933 - petroleum factors into everything now - as does rare earth mining now which brings obscure nations into play

But the world is still very connected so I think the graph could be instructive.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. I was reminded by dramatic drop of trade bookings ** happening now ** in DU post

by Javaman https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220241178 reproduced here:

https://www.vizionapi.com/blog/tariff-shockwave-us-import-bookings-collapse-after-q1-surge

A Sudden April Crash in Bookings
As tariff-related uncertainty intensified, booking volumes collapsed in real time. Comparing the week of March 24–31, 2025 to the following week, April 1–8, 2025, we saw sharp declines:

Global TEUs Booked: ? 49%
Overall U.S. Imports: ? 64%
Overall U.S. Exports: ? 30%
U.S. Imports from China: ? 64%
U.S. Exports to China: ? 36%

This dramatic drop aligned with two key developments: the April 4th U.S. tariff announcement, followed by China’s retaliatory measures announced on April 5th. The result? A widespread booking freeze, as shippers paused mid-shipment cycle to reassess costs, timelines, and broader trade strategy.

More at link

[biophile]

4. Yes absolutely- the players may be different this time but

The tariffs and the retaliation tariffs throw everyone into a “spiral”.

[dalton99a]

2. Kick

[jmbar2]

5. Thanks for posting - first time I've seen this graph

I don't have the economics background to comment intelligently. However, my gut hunch, based on complexity science, is that we would spiral much faster than in the past, implode, and start to rebuild/recover faster due to the modern speed of communications, and fragmentation of the US into regional economic entities.

The west coast would probably be able to bounce back soonest. I think Gavin Newsom is probably gaming this out now.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. Interesting conjecture about the west coast. Generally more dynamism there, but what gives you that hypothesis?

[jmbar2]

7. Several factors

These factors could be leveraged to foster rapid redevelopment network nodes independent of the redder parts of the US.

- Relative wealth
- Strong universities, education
- Strong international ties,
- mild climate (minus fires)
- relative resource independence - agriculture, water, hydroelectric and solar energy
- Population size
-Technology infrastructure and skills