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Asha Rangappa: What's the Real Quid Pro Quo with Bukele?
https://asharangappa.substack.com/p/whats-the-real-quid-pro-quo-with-snip-
There are two possibilities. The first is political. El Salvador has suffered from gang violence, led by Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13, following decades of civil war from 1979 to 1992. According to an indictment brought by the Eastern District of New York against thirteen MS-13 gang members in 2022, various El Salvadoran administrations since the war ended entered into a “truce” with MS-13, in which the gang agreed to reduce homicides in the city “in exchange for transfers to less secure prisons, improved prison conditions, conjugal visits, cash payments, and other benefits and privileges.” The “truce” came to a halt, however, in 2015 after the U.S. government, which wanted to curb MS-13’s activity in the United States and bring them to justice here, increased pressure on El Salvador to return to restrictive prison conditions for gang members and extradite some of them to the U.S. In retaliation for the “truce” being lifted, MS-13 increased its violence both in El Salvador and in the U.S. In fact, the first Trump Justice Department created a task force, called Task Force Vulcan, to crack down on MS-13 in the U.S. – which is what led to the federal indictment noted earlier.
Enter Bukele. Bukele was elected in 2021, winning on a platform that promised to (once again) “crack down” on gang violence. But his party, Nuevas Ideas, did so with the support of a critical group: Yep, MS-13. Prior to the election, Bukele and his party negotiated with the gang to bring back the “truce,” which would include (according to the federal indictment) “financial benefits, control of territory, the ability to run the gang from prison, and the early release of gang members.” MS-13 also wanted assurance that they wouldn’t be extradited to the U.S., where they would face more punitive measures. (Having studied the drug cartels in Colombia, this was reminiscent of Pablo Escobar’s mantra, “Mejor una tumba en Colombia, que una carcel in los Estados Unidos” – which means, “Better a grave in Colombia than a jail cell in the United States.”) The same day he took office, Bukele removed the Attorney General and five members of the Supreme Court who had been working with the U.S. to take real action against MS-13. He also released a major MS-13 leader whom the U.S. was seeking for extradition from prison.
In exchange, MS-13 “agreed to reduce the number of public murders in El Salvador, which politically benefitted the government, by creating the perception that the government was reducing the murder rate.” Indeed, Bukele’s popularity is the result of his so-called “Territorial Control Plan,” which involved building his supermax prison and his plan of mass incarceration – a plan which he credits for the drop in violence since he took office. Of course, the citizens of El Salvador aren’t privy to the secret negotiations Bukele made with MS-13 – details that were going to be made public when the U.S. government’s case against the MS-13 defendants went to trial. Which may explain why the Trump administration quietly dropped these charges last week and put the charged MS-13 members on the third plane bound for El Slavador (and which included Abrego Garcia). Among the defendants was one of the highest-ranking leaders of MS-13, Cesar Humberto Lopez-Larios, who was arrested last June and added to the earlier indictment (and who almost certainly will not face real punishment in El Salvador). A former FBI agent who spent years working on this and other gang cases called it “a historical loss,” especially in terms of getting critical intelligence about MS-13’s operations and members in the United States.
-snip-
As I mentioned, that could be just one reason the Trump administration doesn’t want to reveal the details. The other reason is that the deal as written simply undercuts the Trump administration’s legal claim that it can’t do anything to secure Abrego Garcia’s return. The AP has quoted internal memos from El Salvador’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which states that the country will “house these individuals for one (1) year, pending the United States’ decision on their long term disposition.” Meaning that the U.S., not El Salvador, is in control of what happens to the people sent there – undercutting recent claims made in court by the Justice Department that they are being held under the “domestic, sovereign authority” of El Salvador.
-snip-
There are two possibilities. The first is political. El Salvador has suffered from gang violence, led by Mara Salvatrucha, or MS-13, following decades of civil war from 1979 to 1992. According to an indictment brought by the Eastern District of New York against thirteen MS-13 gang members in 2022, various El Salvadoran administrations since the war ended entered into a “truce” with MS-13, in which the gang agreed to reduce homicides in the city “in exchange for transfers to less secure prisons, improved prison conditions, conjugal visits, cash payments, and other benefits and privileges.” The “truce” came to a halt, however, in 2015 after the U.S. government, which wanted to curb MS-13’s activity in the United States and bring them to justice here, increased pressure on El Salvador to return to restrictive prison conditions for gang members and extradite some of them to the U.S. In retaliation for the “truce” being lifted, MS-13 increased its violence both in El Salvador and in the U.S. In fact, the first Trump Justice Department created a task force, called Task Force Vulcan, to crack down on MS-13 in the U.S. – which is what led to the federal indictment noted earlier.
Enter Bukele. Bukele was elected in 2021, winning on a platform that promised to (once again) “crack down” on gang violence. But his party, Nuevas Ideas, did so with the support of a critical group: Yep, MS-13. Prior to the election, Bukele and his party negotiated with the gang to bring back the “truce,” which would include (according to the federal indictment) “financial benefits, control of territory, the ability to run the gang from prison, and the early release of gang members.” MS-13 also wanted assurance that they wouldn’t be extradited to the U.S., where they would face more punitive measures. (Having studied the drug cartels in Colombia, this was reminiscent of Pablo Escobar’s mantra, “Mejor una tumba en Colombia, que una carcel in los Estados Unidos” – which means, “Better a grave in Colombia than a jail cell in the United States.”) The same day he took office, Bukele removed the Attorney General and five members of the Supreme Court who had been working with the U.S. to take real action against MS-13. He also released a major MS-13 leader whom the U.S. was seeking for extradition from prison.
In exchange, MS-13 “agreed to reduce the number of public murders in El Salvador, which politically benefitted the government, by creating the perception that the government was reducing the murder rate.” Indeed, Bukele’s popularity is the result of his so-called “Territorial Control Plan,” which involved building his supermax prison and his plan of mass incarceration – a plan which he credits for the drop in violence since he took office. Of course, the citizens of El Salvador aren’t privy to the secret negotiations Bukele made with MS-13 – details that were going to be made public when the U.S. government’s case against the MS-13 defendants went to trial. Which may explain why the Trump administration quietly dropped these charges last week and put the charged MS-13 members on the third plane bound for El Slavador (and which included Abrego Garcia). Among the defendants was one of the highest-ranking leaders of MS-13, Cesar Humberto Lopez-Larios, who was arrested last June and added to the earlier indictment (and who almost certainly will not face real punishment in El Salvador). A former FBI agent who spent years working on this and other gang cases called it “a historical loss,” especially in terms of getting critical intelligence about MS-13’s operations and members in the United States.
-snip-
As I mentioned, that could be just one reason the Trump administration doesn’t want to reveal the details. The other reason is that the deal as written simply undercuts the Trump administration’s legal claim that it can’t do anything to secure Abrego Garcia’s return. The AP has quoted internal memos from El Salvador’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which states that the country will “house these individuals for one (1) year, pending the United States’ decision on their long term disposition.” Meaning that the U.S., not El Salvador, is in control of what happens to the people sent there – undercutting recent claims made in court by the Justice Department that they are being held under the “domestic, sovereign authority” of El Salvador.
-snip-
11 replies
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