Supply Chain Issues Ahead

[GreatGazoo]

If you will be buying footwear, bedding, clothes, small appliances and other items then the safest thing to do is buy them ASAP. "Blank sailing" is when cargo ships are scheduled to sail but don't do so. Blank shipping is way up.

DHL has paused air shipping of B2C packages valued over $800:

As a result of recent U.S. Customs regulatory updates, we are experiencing multi-day transit delays to the U.S from any origin for shipments with a declared customs value exceeding USD 800.

Effective Monday, April 21st, 2025, and until further notice, we will temporarily suspend the collection and shipping of business-to-consumer (B2C) shipments to private individuals in the United States where the declared customs value exceeds USD 800.
Shipments – both B2B & B2C - with a declarable customs value below USD 800 are not affected by the suspension.

https://www.dhl.com/au-en/home/important-information/2025/shipments-to-the-united-states-with-a-customs-value-exceeding-usd-800.html

So DHL is giving priority to business customers who pay their tariffs in a streamlined way versus retail customers who do not. De minimis exemptions (eg no tariff on packages under $800 in value) end on May 2nd so DHL and all the other major shipping companies are scrambling to get in front of 10x increase in the amount of tariff processing that will be required.

While we have not seen shelves emptying yet, they are expected to start emptying in early June. Even if a deal is made this week (unlikely), the drop in ocean shipping will create a gap which will ripple through to retail consumers. It takes weeks to cross the Pacific and then there may be a cue to offload at major ports like Long Beach. Airborne shipping could bounce back much faster but that is generally only used for high value small sized products like cell phones.

Less talked about in the tariff escalations is an added $1-million per port fee which will mean that cargo ships will go to as few ports as possible. This is expected to create bottlenecks and more use of trucking and rail to transport goods to the ports which are skipped. So Long Beach will be busy and Portland less so.

On the flip side -- if you like beef, chicken, soybeans, gasoline and almonds they will likely be much cheaper this summer as tariffs and boycotts keep them from leaving the USA. Domestic travel, both hotels and airfare, are already declining and could go to 2008-style levels.


Blank Sailing explained and general info about evolving dynamics in international trade:

[Squaredeal]

1. Prices will go up as demand can't meet supply.

Substitute U.S.-made goods too.

[GreatGazoo]

2. Yes but also many things will not be available at ANY price

Meds are great concern.

And you meant "as supply cannot meet demand"

[CountAllVotes]

3. one of mine is ...

"no longer available" ...

[GreatGazoo]

4. Oh boy

That's concerning. {{ hug }}

There was talk on April 15 about allowing the import of meds from Canada but I have lost track of how that's going and when it would begin.

https://www.afscme.org/blog/the-white-houses-prescription-drug-executive-order-a-win-for-big-pharma-not-for-you

[CountAllVotes]

9. it really sucks

They put me on something else.

It is awful; zombie like.

I can barely move or think.

I'm managing to keep up with the cat and her needs but everything else is going to hell around here.

Thanks for your concern!

[haele]

5. But that's just a temporary pain so we can become Great Again, dontchano?

Anyway, Dr.Oz says if we all just become ovo-lacto-pescatarian vegetarians and take the right vitamin & mineral supplements (that his investors sell under his promotions, of course), we'll all magically become healthy and live longer - or at least the weak folks will just die off, leaving the genetically more healthy folks like in the "Good Old Days".
No-Mercy Eugenics is part of Project 2025, along with criminalizing lower incomes and "bad luck" (not criminalizing just poverty and chronic illnesses that need support or charity)...

[CountAllVotes]

10. Wish it was that easy

I've been there and done all of that.

I even went so far as to follow as strict macrobiotic diet for close to two years.

No luck with any of these "cures".

Don't I wish that one of them would work for me!

[Johonny]

6. Stock up on toilet paper

It isn't like we didn't run out the last time moron and pedophile was in charge.

[ProfessorGAC]

7. That Was Panic Buying

99% of toilet paper used in the US is made here.
Same with paper towels.
The issue with that was JIT run amok. Insufficient safety stock with no vision for panic buying resulted in that.
This idiocy will cause supply problems, but toilet paper won't be among one of them.

[Swede]

8. Or as Trump calls it "supply change"

Trump: Look at even, things like supply change, things we never even heard about. You never heard that term.


https://meidasnews.com/news/confused-trump-supply-change-you-never-heard-that-term

[GreatGazoo]

11. And "raw earth"

I prefer mine medium rare.