Here We Go With The DOW Again

[gab13by13]

Already down 1% most likely because Ford and Mattel pulled their forecasts because of uncertainty. Look for more corporations to do the same.

WTF is it with oil jumping back up to 60 dollars a barrel? Is the excuse the Israeli attack on Yemen? Won't take long for this uptick to be seen at the pumps.

Looks like there are no more tariff-free ships from China left, the ones that arrive will have tariffs. There are a few weeks left of stockpiled products in warehouses, but the shit is about to hit the fan very soon.

[Tetrachloride]

1. Oil price may be a supply and demand thing.

[Simeon Salus]

3. If nobody's sailing to America, nobody's paying for fuel.

Domestic trucking is already way down.

No telling. Every sort of corruption is occurring all at once.

Math doesn't seem to work these days.

[Tetrachloride]

39. i was thinking of the price of drilling

[gab13by13]

4. You mean the "invisible hand" of the market?

I thought that theory was debunked years ago?

[Hugin]

8. I'm polishing up my crystal ball.

Traditionally, people compare the markets to a casino. It’s far worse, the math behind casino games has been well understood for hundreds of years.

[spooky3]

13. Oil prices are generally set by cartel, which controls supply.

It’s really not a supply-and-demand issue right now—it’s a matter of what the cartel chooses to release and sell, and at what price.

[Aviation Pro]

2. The price of a barrel of oil may be due to

The low stock left of winter fuel combined with the conversion to summer stock.

[gab13by13]

5. Up 4% in one day?

[IronLionZion]

6. OPEC wants to lower oil prices to punish members Iraq, Kazakhstan, and others

US Refinery capacity is a bigger factor on US pump prices. Trump's idiotic trade war with Canada and Mexico don't help. Most of our oil is North American.

[wolfie001]

12. We pay our workers liveable wages

Gawd knows what the Saudis pay the Bengali workers. I'm sure it's a miserable existence.
From a year-old Guardian article:

[ProfessorGAC]

15. 88%

Basically 7 of every 8 barrels is North American.
Here's a nice breakdown that I found.
https://afpm.org/newsroom/blog/how-much-oil-does-united-states-import-and-why#:~:text=Nearly%2070%25%20of%20our%20crude,pipelines%20in%20the%20United%20States.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. Dow is not the market. It is a mistake to focus on it.

It's only 30 stocks, price-weighted which is especially bogus.

Use the S&P 500 for reference. It is the top 500 stocks and is market capitalization weighted.

Ford and Mattel aren't in the Dow, since you highlight them.

[wolfie001]

10. LA and Seattle and SF ports are empty of container ships

Is that a real thing we should be concerned about?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. Not empty, but yes, it's a big concern

Traffic at the ports is down about 30%. Not empty. China traffic might be down more as a large percentage of that.

[Hugin]

16. Let's look at the other DJT...

The one that matters. The Dow Jones Transportation Average lacks many of the faults of the ubiquitous Dow Ticker.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:INDEXDJX?hl=en&window=YTD

After a big fall in early April, it’s become very volatile and almost half of it’s consistent value YTD.

I know, it’s a lagging indicator, but it doesn’t look good for something which is usually pretty boring and stable.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

18. Interesting, thanks for noting it

If it is a lagging indicator, it sure seems leading or coincident now. It didn't rise as much 2023, 2024 as the main indices, but it hasn't recovered as much as they have in April.

I think it is usually lagging because it mostly reflects internal US production, but the tariff tax supply shock more directly affects transportation because it transportation from ports is more responsive. Just my pondering.

[Hugin]

19. On a closer inspection...

It’s currently in agreement with your 30% decline cited above.

[AllyCat]

25. It's a huge part of people's retirement funding and the other

Major stocks often have similar patterns.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

31. Wrong. The S&P 500 is a bigger part of people's retirement funding

The Dow is only 30 stocks, and more importantly the Dow is price-weighted, which is bogus.

[AllyCat]

34. My point of the other major funds (SPX, NCI, etc) follow holds true.

And if it was not true about the Dow, I would not be losing so much money.

[wolfie001]

9. Dump is gonna release a statement says he's gonna roll back some tariffs

And then say that he's very, very, extremely close to 90 trade deals and *poof! WS goes up 1%. Bring out the Official White House Dog and Pony Act!!!

[yardwork]

20. I got a newsletter from an investment broker today that said they're wise to that.

They are downgrading everything. The brokers are sick of Trump's games.

[wolfie001]

32. I'll bet every one of those brokers voted for tRUMP

Because he's a great businessman.

[yardwork]

33. That's my impression, too.

[wolfie001]

35. FAFO!!!

[twodogsbarking]

14. There will be shortages. Stock market is so manipulated that who really knows.

Fan, meet brown stuff.

[RobinA]

17. In My Neck

of the woods, gas went up 15 cents a gallon between the time I got it in the morning and the time I returned in the evening.

[FirstLight]

21. Heading down to Carson City, NV today...

I've been avoiding the big stores, and haven't stepped foot in a Target in months...! I am not going down there for shopping, but I will poke my head in and report back here ...with pics if I can help it

Gonna look in walmart, target, trader joes, and see what I see...

...any specific shelves I should look for emptiness? Prices?

[Cheezoholic]

22. They, Them, He are doing this shit on purpose IMO. The wealthy usually make out like bandits during economic downturns

While tons of people have 401k's/IRA's tied to the market when there are big massive swings they don't get to cash in all that much. Big players have the liquidity jump quickly, especially now, back into to a positive market and reap huge rewards on the order of 100's of billions. Big Hedge Funds and Multi Nationals use these big downturns to mop up small, intermediate and even large companies and consolidate them into the hands of a few. It especially includes real estate (Krasnov and his crooks territory). If we go into a deep recession loan defaults rise and once again, with all of the laws and regulations gone, huge Hedge Funds and Corporations swoop in and pick up for pennies on the dollar. If we go into a deep recession I'd bet 75% of Americans will be renting by 2030. We have never fixed the "too big to fail" problem of the banks. They'll just stick their hands out after they've sold off all of their corrupted assets.

One needs nothing more than to look at the massive wealth gained by so few at the expense of so many in this country in the last 20 years. And that wealth gain to actual production of "product" per se is non existent. It all came from Main St. and the other side of the tracks, that is the bottom 90% of taxpayers. I was listening to Ratner the other morning and he quoted an economist as saying the last 20 years has been the largest distribution of wealth from the bottom to the top in the last 300 years. I can't say if its true or not, I'm no economist like most of us. But hey, just look at the full all time S$P 500 chart. It is absolutely freaking obvious. Has the little guy made some in the last 20 years? Sure, if he can survive these crashes.

Republicans LOVE recessions thats why they put us in one when they've been in power every...EVERY... time in the last 50 years. Our economic system is broken and needs repaired like and old rusty truck.

[mdbl]

23. In the stock market, someone has to lose for others to gain

Otherwise there would be no such thing as selling short. I was always on the losing side
So I got out of it.

[Bluestocking]

27. I got out of the stock market in 2000

My 401K is actually up for 2025.

[Mr.Bee]

24. Well...

Trump isn't running the country. The only thing Trump is running is his mouth.
Darn Old Trump.

[Bluestocking]

26. We have already hit the iceberg

[progressoid]

28. Blaming a minor fluctuation in oil prices on an administration is a fool's game

There are many non-administration factors that affect oil prices.

(unless he starts a war in the Middle East)

[questionseverything]

38. We have been bombing yeman for 2 months, does that count?

[progressoid]

41. 2 months? How about 15. We been bombing Yemen since January of 2024.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US%E2%80%93UK_airstrikes_on_Yemen

I was thinking about a Bush/Cheney/Iraq war level of oil disruption.

[Skittles]

40. Trump himself is taking credit for "lower energy prices"

yeah I know, he is full of shit

[progressoid]

42. Yep. And his followers are too.

Remember when the price of gas started to rise after the pandemic got under control and all the Biden "I did that" stickers showed up?

I was chatting with a couple of trumpers from my hometown who wanted pandemic level gas prices. First I mocked them for wanting the economy to shut down again to bring back low gas prices.
Then I mocked them for not supporting supply and demand capitalism. Heck, our poor oil barrons were at one point were selling oil at a loss. *gasp*
Then they stopped talking to me.

[Skittles]

44. excellent schooling

well done!

[surfered]

29. Oil

Crude oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices take a dip Monday morning after OPEC+ plans to increase its production by an additional 411,000 barrels per day in June.

[WSHazel]

30. Some intra-OPEC squabbling driving oil's dip

Although there is some downward pressure on oil from flat demand.

[Johonny]

36. Oil prices were dropping too low

That producers were pulling out waiting for higher prices. I know Trump thinks oil low is good, but the people refining oil from certain sources need a certain price to even make it worth extracting.

Low oil price means low demand, it means less viable sources of oil.

[Meowmee]

37. I just read last night I think crude oil went down...

I have yet to lock in the price with our heating company. I guess I should have done it at the price they quoted me last week. They also will give me a $75 off coupon for the next bill they said. We lock in the upper range price and it can't go above that for a year, but if it goes lower you get the lower price per gallon.

[Johnny2X2X]

43. The DOW is not a stand in for the economy

Heck, it's not even a good stand in for how the stock market is doing. The DOW is based on 30 companies, it usually follows trends, but it's not somethiing finance people follow all that much. S&P 500 is what most in fanance will quote first.

S&P is flat today, DOW is up 1/2 point.

And it's even more meaningless to the average person and their 401K. Your 401K is risk mitigated, you have time to make back losses or if you're close to retirement your blend is away from equities so it's not a massive impact.

No one has lost their retirement because the DOW is down 10%. Very few have even lost 10%, and those that did are probably 20 years from retirement so it will all come back and then some.

What the DOW, or S&P can be a valuable tool for is gauging the overall health of companies and thus the economy. And that's what matters in the end, jobs matter in the end. Growth matters because if it's low or negative, people will start to lose their jobs. And you know who does lose their retirement? Peopple without jobs. People who are unemployed stop saving since they don't have a paycheck to put part of into their 401K. So they stop growing their 401Ks, and they miss out on buying low if the markets are down because of a recession. And other people, who are unemployed for long periods of time, end up dipping into their 401Ks to stay afloat. Those are the consequences that matter for everyday people.

And the ultra rich? They don't care about the DOW either, they don't even care much about their stock prices right now, because they've installed Trump to deliver to them in the end. They are williing to endure some instability in order to remake the country into one with a much more terrified and insecure workforce they can exploit to become even richer in the end.