Interest rates held steady for a third straight meeting just now, so

[senseandsensibility]

"Get ready for a Truth Social post with a lot of capital letters." as Ron Filipkowski wrote on bluesky. But I think he's still too spooked by what happened last time when he threatened to fire Jerome Powell to do it again. He really got his clock cleaned that time.

[WSHazel]

1. There is a high risk of selling pressure on the dollar

making an interest rate cut very risky for the Fed.

One of the obvious (but apparently unanticipated by the Bessent/Lutnick/Trump brain trust) consequences of cutting off the U.S. from the rest of the world is that the rest of the world would not need to hold all the dollars that they currently hold. If they started selling those dollars, it would devalue the dollar, increasing inflation, and force interest rates higher.

This was covered in about the 4th or 5th week of sophomore year Macroeconomics for most people, but apparently everyone in the current Administration skipped those classes.

Selling pressure on the dollar has been modest so far. I think the rest of the world, and American traders, are in a bit of a wait and see mode because they are still surprised by how stupid and reckless this Administration has been, and they are hoping that one day it will all return to normal.

[edhopper]

2. Sounds about right

The fools see what is happening but can't believe it.
Like spending the 00s ignoring the Housing Bubble that would crash.
They always think they can get put in time.

[uponit7771]

3. MAGA will increase debt even if rates were lowered right now

[senseandsensibility]

5. Whatever causes the most damage they will

do. I have no doubt about that.

[uponit7771]

7. Yep, and wall street still thinks he'll do what is sane

[LetMyPeopleVote]

6. The Fed is worried about stagflation

I remember stagflation during the 1970s.

Link to tweet

Just in: The Federal Reserve keeps the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25 to 4.5%.

**But the Fed adds a warning about stagflation *
"the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen."

[GreatGazoo]

8. Yanis Varoufakis says the goal is to lower USD value by 30%

so using interest rate cuts to limit inflation won't work the same way right now.

A really interesting analysis: