It's been over a decade since a sitting Senator lost their primary, but that streak is coming to an end in 2026 (Texas)

[Polybius]

John Cornyn is getting crushed by Ken Paxton. The only way he doesn't lose his primary is if he doesn't run for re-election.

Paxton 50, Cornyn 28

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5330277-paxton-leads-cornyn-texas-senate-primary/

[JBTaurus83]

1. One would hope

We could nominate someone who could at least defeat Paxton.

[TheProle]

2. Paxton is poison and must be defeated wherever his stupid face pops up

[yellowdogintexas]

10. He is giving up being AG by doing this. He can't be on the ballot for two different offices

since this is the election year for the AG position

This makes the AG spot an open seat. With a little luck we could take that open seat.
There are strong rumors that the (horrible)Tarrant County Judge is planning a run for that AG seat. He says he isn't but I don't trust anything that man says. That would leave our county judge position open, and considering how angry our citizens are over the recent redistricting debacle, we could win that. Things are going to be very interesting here in 2026

[Polybius]

4. I agree that he's a lot easier to beat than Cornyn

However, Cruz is unpopular and somehow still won by 9 last year. But Paxton is even more extreme than Cruz.

[ITAL]

5. Cruz was helped by Trump being on the ballot

Paxton won't have that advantage. That said, I'd rather face Cornyn because I still don't expect to win that race (I'd say Paxton would win by 1-2%) and I'd much rather have an institutionalist like Cornyn than Paxton.

[cloudbase]

3. And Cruz salivates over becoming the senior senator.

[MagickMuffin]

6. I wish Cornyn well, because Ken Paxton is toxic sewage

I’m still not sure who should run this go round, and hope it isn’t Beto, he’s had his chances and his say, and apparently Texans don’t want him.

I kinda wish Jasmine Crockett would throw her hat in the ring. That to me would be so awesome. However, I like her where she is but I can’t vote for her as a Representative, 😭

I still have time to think of other candidates I’d like to vote for.

[Polybius]

8. Crockett would have absolutely no chance in a state-wide race though

Perhaps Colin Allred will run again.

[pinkstarburst]

7. Going from bad to worse...

[yellowdogintexas]

9. Our State Chairman reports that according to polling after Paxton announced

he would lose by 30% to A Democrat.

Colin could possibly beat him. However, the latest on that is Rep Joaquin Castro may be considering a run. He is very popular, and will work the daylights out of the border area.

I do not think Beto will run and I do not want Rep Crockett to step away from her Congressional Seat. We need her voice in the House.

[Polybius]

11. Lose by 30 points?

Are you sure you heard him right? Polls show Paxton beating every Democrat by small amounts. Crockett could never win a state race.

2026 Texas Senate - Paxton vs. Allred

Paxton vs. Allred
Paxton 48
Allred 46

2026 Texas Senate - Paxton vs. O'Rourke

Paxton vs. O'Rourke
Paxton 49
O'Rourke 45

[yellowdogintexas]

12. from a poll taken on May 15

A separate poll in mid-April by a pollster founded by Brad Parscale, formerly Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign manager, showed that in a general election, 52 percent of Texans would likely back Allred against Paxton, who received 37 percent support.

This is the info our state chair was using when he spoke at a fundraiser in early May.

Time will tell, but we do have a decent shot against Paxton.