and why is the DOW up over 500 points???

[a kennedy]

S & P and Nasdaq are both up too, damn looks like everything is up. WTH???

[gab13by13]

1. Project 2025 is ahead of schedule.

[eallen]

2. May employment report wasn't as bad as anticipated

It will be an interesting summer.

[Rebl2]

4. I think

when college graduates start trying to find a job, we will see the numbers go up.

[Self Esteem]

5. Maybe. But the economy continues to be resilient.

Everyone keeps predicting an imminent crash and it just ain't happening. Reminds me a lot of 2022-23 when everyone and their dog predicted a recession.

People just need to stop predicting things. It's clear the economy isn't going off the rails like some thought a couple months ago.

[Rebl2]

21. I've seen

In my area a lot of layoffs because we have a lot of federal employees. I have also seen small businesses on local news saying they aren’t able to get merchandise like they were before. Some fear they may have to close. I think the biggest problem is, like I said before, we have/had a lot of federal workers. Also I hear about restaurants closing, but that’s is not unusual around here. There is always another one opening it seems like.

[Self Esteem]

24. That's more confirmational bias.

Plenty of that existed a few years ago under Biden too. I somehow got stuck on a 'laid off' tiktok loop of people posting how they were being laid off.

There was a surge of layoffs in 2023, which pushed the prediction of a recession but they were almost all consolidated around one industry (tech) or at least a big chunk of them:



Of course, we saw that didn't mean much in terms of a recession...we'll have to see where things are in a few months but right now? The economy remains resilient.

[Ocelot II]

3. Damned if I know; pay no attention.

[JT45242]

6. Curious as to whether layoffs have made processing unemployment numbers wonky so that the data is not reliable

I saw something about the consumer price index and inflation measure having problems with data collection and analysis -- wondering if any of the economist minded DUers could chime in on whether the same issue may be at work here.

Plus -- I would not be surprised at all if some mango mussolini loyalist put out bogus data to make dear leader look good and cash in on some insider trading at the same time.

[Wiz Imp]

12. NO. First of all, unemployment claims have zero impact on the unemployment rate and jobs numbers.

Second, unemployment claims are completely processed at the state level. Federal layoffs would have zero effect. Third, unemployment claims did rise this week to their highest level is some time. People need to quit with the "Trump is cooking the books" garbage. That's what it is at this point. The data is NOT currently being manipulated. Reality is, almost all the data released by BLS has not been particularly good since Trump took office. It's just that it hasn't been disastrous.

Look, it is a legitimate concern that the Trump administration will try to manipulate their statistical data. I know many of the long time government statisticians are concerned about it. However, it hasn't happened yet . There is plenty of time for the numbers to start showing the disastrous impacts of Trump's ridiculous economic decisions. It is at that point that we need to be alert for attempts at releasing false data. And trust me, if/when this administration starts trying to publish manipulated data, it will be very obvious.

[Wiz Imp]

13. Oh. And the report on the CPI/inflation data was NOT an example of manipulation.

Yes there is reason to be concerned the data is less reliable than it has been, but that is a byproduct of all the layoffs of federal employees, making it harder (at this point, it's apparently impossible) to collect the complete set of data needed to make the CPI/inflation data as reliable as normal.

[JT45242]

16. Thanks -- i did not know how the data was collected and compiled for this unlike the CPI

DOGE impact on the quality and quantity of data that can be first collecetd and then cleaned and analyzed is worrisome to me.

But I can definitely see the wrestling lady asking people over at the Dept of Education to look for self selected charter schools who report out good test data to justify giving more money to charter schools and ignoring that ECOT and the other all virtual charter schools owned by the Devos family and a bunch of venture capital groups have horrific results that they do not report.

Conclusions based on bad/incomplete data can be just as dangerous as purposefully manipulated data (the Gates foundation studies on small schools and school within a school with an n count of 7 schools would be a good example of a lot of bad money decisions based on a bad/incomplete data set.

Thanks again for the clarification that this is compiled from state level data.

[Kingofalldems]

7. What is your point?

[a kennedy]

8. No point, just curious......

Sheesh…..

[beaglelover]

9. This is good news. We should be rooting for a strong economy no matter who is in charge. It's in our

best interests as human beings.

[Greg_In_SF]

23. I made

$7000 today and am very happy

[Polybius]

25. This

I'm also rooting for lower inflation and less unemployment.

[Xavier Breath]

10. Good.

[EdmondDantes_]

11. Most things aren't linear and the market is irrational

Stop obsessing over every up and down. The monthly jobs numbers (more precisely the first iteration of them) were better than expected, unemployment remains near historical lows. But also yesterday's issues between Trump and Musk caused some stocks to drop and if you think those stocks are still solid, it becomes a good time to buy.

[Lovie777]

14. This is a set up..

shithole just asked Powell for a full % rate deduction.

[ananda]

15. Agree.

I think unemployment is up and the economy is struggling.

A good example is the company my sister manages in Dallas..
The owners are having trouble filling menial jobs that immigrants
used to take.

ICE agents are everywhere. And people with professional degrees,
who have lost jobs, are interviewing for the menials.

[Midnight Writer]

17. Churning. Traders don't make money unless the prices move.

They have the equipment and software to profit whenever the market moves, regardless of if the move is up or down.

Doesn't it seem like Trump, with his off-the-wall remarks, his capricious, nonsensical lurches in policy, is moving the market up and down deliberately? How many times have we seen a positive market turn negative as he delivers remarks?

Volatility is the friend of the pros: it kills the small investor. But who in charge cares about the small investor, the retirement saver, the regular folks trying to build a nest egg?

[andym]

18. Better than expected jobs report. nt.

[viva la]

20. The federal employees laid off-- thousands-- are probably still getting paid.

Their unemployment will register in August probably.

[haele]

19. Because the "Market" is only tangentially connected to the regular economy.

And will react on rumors and social media posts instead of waiting for facts.
Waiting means losing money, donchaknow?
I think it's because there's going to be some serious pressure on the Fed to get rates to go down soon, and the Market analysts concerned with weekly profit trends think it will work this time.

[WarGamer]

22. because powerful people WANT it to go up.

The market is an autonomous creature.

[Walleye]

26. Something about Trump and Xi discussing tariffs, I think

my retirement money is mostly an S&P index funds. So I’m hoping we do well in spite of everything.

[Scruffy1]

27. I still think the market is overpriced.

At around 30 times earnings I really see little upside potential. But then, who knows when it will drop? It's impossible to fathom the nature of the securities business with all the program trading but their is only 2 things that make it work: greed and fear. My best guess is the insiders know the corporate tax reductions will stay in place. That and the IRS being wrecked make it a good bet in the short run, but when the wizards burn it down we'll all suffer.

[cliffside]

29. CNN fear and greed index dropped to 3 on 4/8 ...

not to mention the monthly hammer in April.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/11216338#post1

Agree about the program trading and mostly likely tax cuts extended. We're getting close to the old high in the SPX, how much higher ... we'll see.

[sweetapogee]

30. buy low...

...sell high.

[Tarzanrock]

28. Whether the markets go up 500 points or down 500 points ...

whether the interest rate is cut a 1/4 point or increased a 1/4 point has little to do with the pricing of an item in a grocery store which is a necessity food item which consumers have to purchase. The same can be said about those bogus "unemployment" numbers which have no reflection in the real world for unemployed/underemployed people seeking real life jobs.