Republicans and Economists at Odds Over Whether Megabill Will Spur Growth Boom

[Zorro]

Republicans see a golden age of prosperity ahead, driven by the tax-and-spending megabill they are trying to push through Congress by July 4. Nonpartisan experts project far more modest effects, forecasting a slight near-term economic expansion and larger federal budget deficits.

The growth debate is at the core of this summer’s fiscal fight. Republicans are trying to focus public attention on growth—from tax cuts, deregulation and fossil-fuel production—and play down the Congressional Budget Office estimate that the bill would increase budget deficits by $2.4 trillion through 2034. The White House highlights growth to bolster congressional support, countering claims from Elon Musk and others that the package irresponsibly darkens America’s fiscal picture.

Republicans and outside economists agree on the basic direction: tax cuts increase consumer spending and business investment, accelerating short-term growth. But they differ vastly on how large and meaningful that jump would be. The bill, according to public- and private-sector economists, would fall far short of Republicans’ hoped-for boom.

“We would expect some dynamic revenue, some revenue feedback in that larger economy,” said Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, which favors lower tax rates and a simpler system. “But it wouldn’t come close to paying for itself.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/republicans-economists-odds-over-whether-120000389.html

[Nonnia Bisnez]

1. Republicans bellyfeel the bill will spur growth

and they don't need those pesky models and formulas them economist use.

[displacedvermoter]

2. Article doesn't mention the millions harmed by the bill

A terrible article, about a terrible bill and the terrible people pushing for it.

[walkingman]

3. Total hogwash - they have been spreading this BS since Reagan

[JT45242]

4. On what planet will this cause economic growth? Trickle down never works

Tariffs to offset billionaire tax cuts will absolutely devastated not only the US economy but cause a world wide recession/depression.

Since the tax cuts.explode the deficit, there is no chance for a keynesian cash dump like the American recovery act that Biden pushed through.

The only thing not gutted is military budget. If you remember the fall of the Soviet Union was caused in large part financially by the weight of the cost of the military.

Putin will achieve his goal, collapsing the United States from within as he uses Mango Mussolini and apartheid Clyde to destroy this country with this law.

[Javaman]

5. It'll be a dead cat bounce

Couple that with anyone being killed at the hands of the national guard in Los Angeles and we are done as a nation

As I have long predicted, it will be less a civil war and more of a revolution

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. I trust economists more than RepubliCons. . . .nt

[hildegaard28]

7. When have

Republican policies ever spurred a growth boom? Republican policies usually land us in a recession.

[travelingthrulife]

8. Did they click the heels of their ruby slippers while they said it?

[CousinIT]

9. "at odds" "the sides disagree". GODDAMNED weasel words from the media. THE FACTS MATTER.

WHAT DO HISTORY AND FACTS / MATH SAY?

Facts, history, and the MATH (economists) say that Trump's Robber Baron Manifesto WILL DESTROY THE ECONOMY. Worse, it will destroy the planet, the social safety net, causing 51,000 people a YEAR to die due to no healthcare, and it destroys the rule of law.

https://www.finance.senate.gov/ranking-members-news/51000-americans-will-die-every-year-as-a-direct-result-of-republican-health-plan-new-analysis

When the media uses weasel words like "at odds" - that means "we don't want to discuss what the FACTS say. We'd rather pretend that facts no longer matter."

[Zorro]

10. It's a WSJ article

Expect some weaselwording when they disagree with Trump's fiscal policy but hesitate to call it out explicitly.

[Ol Janx Spirit]

11. It is actually fairly easy to determine whether these tax cuts spur growth.

Economic growth brings with it inflation as consumers gain spending power and compete for available goods. The amount and rapidity of the increase in inflation depends on how fast the growth is and what parts of the workforce benefit from whatever caused the growth. Republicans know this because they rightly predicted that the government dumping money into the economy as a result of the pandemic would cause inflation.

So if these big tax cuts actually stimulated the economy we would expect inflation to follow and for the fed to respond by raising rates. As far as I can tell, this never happens following these cuts. But why? They are incredibly significant cuts. Why do they not create the economic growth that Republicans promise and that would spur inflation?

We all know the answer to that: because except for a modicum going to the middle class consumers who's spending makes up the vast majority of the economy, these cuts go to the wealthy and corporations that are already spending pretty much all they want. So that extra money goes into stock buybacks and other mechanisms to make sure it ends up in the bank accounts of the already-wealthy.

This is also why the cuts never pay for themselves. That money inevitably ends up being used in ways that do not get subjected to taxes like middle-class income would: sales tax; income tax; single article durable goods; etc.

For other data points we can look at what has happened to income inequality and the national debt since the concept of trickle-down economics found its greatest supporters gaining power in the 1980s.