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EndlessWire

(8,103 posts)
Wed Jun 25, 2025, 07:15 PM Jun 2025

Question: If Iran did make a bomb

don't they have to test it somehow? How would they do that? Is their nuclear stuff only for ICBMs? Isn't that harder to do?

6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Question: If Iran did make a bomb (Original Post) EndlessWire Jun 2025 OP
But would they? ForgedCrank Jun 2025 #1
Probably FBaggins Jun 2025 #3
I guess ForgedCrank Jun 2025 #6
"The whole idea of the doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret. Why didn't you tell the world, eh?" 0rganism Jun 2025 #5
You're on the right track FBaggins Jun 2025 #2
It's uncertain if Israel ever tested one. C_U_L8R Jun 2025 #4

ForgedCrank

(3,120 posts)
1. But would they?
Wed Jun 25, 2025, 07:33 PM
Jun 2025

If an underground test were done, Western intel would know about it almost immediately. Modern seismic monitoring and analysis can differentiate (with very high accuracy) between normal seismic activity and nuclear testing. We would most likely also see the ground activity in preparing for such a test. None of this would end well for Iran.
If I had to venture a guess, they probably already have initiator (etc) info that was supplied by NK or the like. Remember, they don't have to build a perfect, high-yield modern example. For their purposes, the most rudimentary system would suffice. Their primary limitation would be that whatever weapon they came up with, it has to fit on top of and be able to be carried by one of their missiles, and that is a big hurdle. An Iranian bomber headed toward Israel wouldn't make it out of it's own airspace, and missiles have somewhat limited payload capabilities.

FBaggins

(28,763 posts)
3. Probably
Wed Jun 25, 2025, 07:44 PM
Jun 2025

It's how a country announces that they've joined the club.

They wouldn't do it until they could claim that they had several (and the ability to deliver them)... but I don't think they would try to hide the test (as you say... not that they could).

ForgedCrank

(3,120 posts)
6. I guess
Wed Jun 25, 2025, 08:18 PM
Jun 2025

I wasn't making a definitive statement, more just me thinking "out loud" I guess.
The geo political stuff is quite complex and is constantly changing. I find it interesting to read good discussion on the subject, and this is a really good topic for seed.

0rganism

(25,715 posts)
5. "The whole idea of the doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret. Why didn't you tell the world, eh?"
Wed Jun 25, 2025, 08:12 PM
Jun 2025

viz Dr. Strangelove (at 4:10):

&t=250s

FBaggins

(28,763 posts)
2. You're on the right track
Wed Jun 25, 2025, 07:41 PM
Jun 2025

Yes - you don't really have a bomb until you've demonstrated that it actually works. Too many seem to think that the only hurdle to nuclear development is the enrichment of uranium to a particular level... but in reality it is far more complex than that. If the explosives that you use to slam the supercritical mass together are not shaped perfectly... or if they're slightly too fast or too slow... you get a "fizzle" rather than a nuclear explosion.

You're also correct that even repeating what the US did during WWII doesn't help Iran much because they have no way to deliver a 10,000 pound bomb to Israel. They do have ballistic missiles, but then you have to reduce the size of your warhead substantially (and develop a working trigger mechanism).

C_U_L8R

(49,534 posts)
4. It's uncertain if Israel ever tested one.
Wed Jun 25, 2025, 07:49 PM
Jun 2025

The science seems fairly proven - just need competent engineers to follow the recipe.

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