If Everyone Had Voted, Harris Still Would Have Lost (NYT)

[dalton99a]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/26/upshot/turnout-2024-election-trump-harris.html

https://archive.ph/m24cN

If Everyone Had Voted, Harris Still Would Have Lost
New data, based on authoritative voter records, suggests that Donald Trump would have done even better in 2024 with higher turnout.
By Nate Cohn
June 26, 2025 Updated 11:59 a.m. ET

In the wake of last November’s election, many Democrats blamed low turnout for Kamala Harris’s defeat.

It wasn’t entirely without reason, as turnout dropped in Democratic areas, but many months later it is clear the blame was misplaced. Newly available data, based on authoritative voter turnout records, suggests that if anything, President Trump would have done even better if everyone had voted.

The new data, including a new study from Pew Research released Thursday, instead offers a more dispiriting explanation for Democrats: Young, nonwhite and irregular voters defected by the millions to Mr. Trump, costing Ms. Harris both the Electoral College and the popular vote.

The findings suggest that Mr. Trump’s brand of conservative populism once again turned politics-as-usual upside down, as his gains among disengaged voters deprived Democrats of their traditional advantage with this group, who are disproportionately young and nonwhite.

...

[ImNotGod]

1. Did they include the 2 million voters knocked off the voter rolls in red states? Mostly in Dem voting areas. nt

[LexVegas]

2. This will slot in perfectly with the new "blame establishment Democrats" for everything fad. nt

[Gore1FL]

9. I don't know if that is a fad. I've been doing it since at least 1985. nt

[-misanthroptimist]

22. You, too?

Okay, truth to tell, I started a few years after you.

[Lovie777]

3. Bullshit....

Again, NYT propaganda.

[Scrivener7]

5. Yep.

[Brainfodder]

4. That include for all the alleged CHEATING?

DUH!

[brush]

6. Fu_k the NYT. If Musk hadn't bribed and bought votes, TSF wouldn't have won.

I will never believe trump won every swing state. Much skullduggery there IMO.

[delisen]

7. Get a grain of salt.

The NY Times spent a lot of energy after Election 2000 explaining why Gore really lost.

The Rocklsnd County NY recount is apt to make some elitists nervous. There is a theory that the most important consideration re elections is whether the people will lose confidence in our elec on.

I think it is more important to have free and fair elections.

[mercuryblues]

8. Let me fix that headline for them.

If everyone had voted for Harris, Trump still would have won.

[Silent Type]

10. In recent years I've come to realize "Independents" likely lean right. Not necessarily a lot, but enough to know

if all of them voted, Democrats wouldn't necessarily win.

There is probably a lot of truth in NYT article. But rather than heeding it, we'll bash the NYT and continue to blame the media.

[mercuryblues]

24. I read a survey or poll done several years ago

I have no link, But according to the article

About 40% lean R, another 40% lean D. it is that 20% in the middle they try to reach out to.

Granted this was before trump's reign of error, so who the F knows anymore.

[Conjuay]

40. so the NYT has proven to be a reliable purveyor of truth?

Covering Reps and Dems with the same evenhanded guardianship?

[Botany]

11. Bullshit utter and complete bullshit.

So millions of Americans voted for Trump but voted blue down ticket?

In every election post the overturning of Roe a woman’s right to health care was
upheld

Trump, Musk, Theil, and the Brologarchs cheated. They had firmware patches on
ES&S and Dominion Tabulators and Operating Systems in conjunction with Elon’s
Starlink, and Thiel had clean up operations that hid flipped or deleted votes.

https://thiswillhold.substack.com/p/she-won-part-iv-and-so-did-hillary A new one a must read.

The odds of the 2024 vote breaking the way it did were 1 in 50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

Musk turned on 265 low earth orbit satellites on 10/30/24 that allowed direct to cell
communications via Starlink that gave access directly to the ES&S and Dominion’s
tabulators and servers.

https://thiswillhold.substack.com/p/she-won-they-didnt-just-change-the?fbclid=IwY2xjawK-Q-RleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHl8PQYh9WG-6uuPXYQO5BzrEiJv9VweTkJc6a-VHicPxurAtcP4Q059t4Gjo_aem_HoFB_uGcaEjb3ciZ62ggmA

She Won. They Didn't Just Change the Machines. They Rewired the Election.

https://thiswillhold.substack.com/p/she-won-part-ii-seven-judges-direct

She Won, Part II: Seven Judges. Direct-to-Cell Satellites. A Hijacked Election.

https://thiswillhold.substack.com/p/she-won-part-iii-the-devil-is-in

She Won, Part III: The Devil Is In The Data

[Bettie]

32. Thank you!

really, thank you for posting all of this.

[WSHazel]

12. Reading these articles you would think Trump won by 20 million votes

He won by just over 2 million votes, or 1.5% of out of the votes cast.

Articles should be about the self-destructive impulses of the American voters, because that is how the financial markets are looking at the Trump chaos.

[mcar]

13. The paper of record

making shit up again.

[dlilafae]

14. No count

NYT! ~ Ain't buying their words.

[Silent Type]

15. Here's the Pew Poll the article is based on.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/06/26/behind-trumps-2024-victory-a-more-racially-and-ethnically-diverse-voter-coalition/

[maxsolomon]

17. No, ST, the hated liars at the NYT completely made it up!

It's all voter fraud! It's a huge conspiracy!

A higher percentage of young non-white American Voters couldn't possibly be blinkered, propagandized idiots just like old white Americans.

[Silent Type]

18. Christ. We lost. Going into midterms believing we didn't lose is a big mistake. But that's never stopped anyone before.

I had a hard time accepting we lost in 2016 and 2024 too. But fact is, there are more stupid and vile voters than I thought.. trump tapped into them.

[maxsolomon]

20. He's a Con Man who had unlimited funds to con with.

He has Dark Charisma.

People are idiots.

We need a candidate with Charisma. Obama would have crushed MFer like a grape.

[Silent Type]

21. Yes, Obama would have crushed him too. Unfortunately, Obama & Clinton got bashed by too many Dems right up to Nov 2016

over trade agreements and their candidate losing in primaries, giving us trump.

[Conjuay]

41. your saying Harris doesn't have charisma?

you saw a Bob Dole look alike speaking at her rallys?

[maxsolomon]

42. I didn't say she had none, but she doesn't have enough.

Not like MFer does. Not like Obama does. Not like Clinton did.

I was a Harris backer in the 2020 primaries. But she never got traction there, and my takeaway was that her affect is peculiar.

[bif]

30. The evil NYT does it again!

Let's all just stick our fingers in our ears and hum real loud!

[Polybius]

16. Someone here said the same thing a couple of months ago

I wish I bookmarked it.

[Prairie Gates]

19. I ask again: name Harris' top-level policy proposal and how it would affect your life

Do it without looking it up. For a recent Presidential campaign, you should be able to recall the top policy proposal from memory.

[Doodley]

26. Are you saying Harris lost because messaging wasn't as strong as Trump? If so, I agree.

[Prairie Gates]

29. In another thread somebody answered "We're not going back." That's not a policy, but a slogan

Maybe it's an alright slogan. But, thought experiment:

Name ONE Trump 2024 policy that he promoted on the campaign trail. Like legislation that would change something clear and substantive in people's lives. Here's the thing, I'll bet you can name at least three of them off the top of your head without much thought.

So, yes, that's the problem. Even if Trump was lying and many of his policy proposals were garbage from top to bottom (they were!), people could name them, and still can. We can call it messaging or whatever, but it was for sure a problem. As always, people don't vote for anti-. They for pro-.

[Wiz Imp]

34. No I can't really name any specific Trump "policies" he ran on because he

wasn't proposing specific policies. Running around saying Immigrants are bad is not a policy. Saying "I will lower prices on day one" is not a policy. Saying "I will end the Ukraine war in 24 hours" is not a policy. His campaign was built ENTIRELY on demonizing his perceived "enemies" and lies about immigration and the economy. The only specific policy proposals were from Project 2025 which he disavowed.

I remind you there has been ZERO (That's a BIG FAT 0) bills passed by this Congress to address single thing that people cited as their most important issues including (and I could name Harris's position on just about every one of these and if polled side-by-side, almost all of Harris's positions would poll better than Trump's):
The economy
Democracy in the U.S.
Terrorism and national security
Types of Supreme Court justices candidates would pick
Immigration
Education
Healthcare
Gun policy
Abortion
Taxes
Crime
Distribution of income and wealth in the U.S.
The federal budget deficit
Foreign affairs
Situation in Middle East between Israelis and Palestinians
Energy policy
Relations with Russia
Race relations
Relations with China
Trade with other nations
Climate change
Transgender rights

[Doodley]

36. I ask Trumpers why they voted the way they did. They all say "America first." A two-word slogan, and they relate to it.

"Make America Great Again," everyone knows that one. I mean, everyone. "No taxes on tips," is another one. Doesn't matter they may lose healthcare and have to pay more for groceries, but they believe Trump is one the side of ordinary people. Another thing I hear them say is Laken Riley. They all want to talk about Laken Riley. It doesn't matter there have been 200,000 murders in the past decade, all they want to talk about is the illegal immigrant who committed one of those murders and compare Biden and Trump on immigration.

So yes, I agree with what you are saying.

[Wiz Imp]

23. Totally idiotic premise

Even if it were legally required to vote, you still wouldn't get 100% turnout, so what is the point? Nobody ever tries to get everyone to vote. In fact, the Republicans try extremely hard to prevent as many people from voting as possible - to the point of massive illegal voter suppression actions being a core part of their campaigns.

The goal of Democratic campaigns is always to get as many eligible voters as possible to vote for them. There were tens of millions of eligible voters who didn't vote but would have voted for Harris if they had voted. Those are really the only nonvoters for Democrats to be concerned about.

The only value in polling who nonvoters supposedly would have voted for would be to ask WHY(?) they didn't vote. Of course this useless poll didn't ask that question.

I won't even get into the poll itself which is deeply flawed and doesn't remotely suggest the conclusion the article tried to draw from it.

[Johonny]

25. His whole agenda is below 50 percent in the polls

Popularism here means lying to people. It was the media's job to reveal his real agenda, but instead spent 24/7 bashing trans people.

Make no mistake, Trump is deeply unpopular and so are his policies.

[Paladin]

27. Non-stop trump-pimping by the NYT.

I'm old enough to remember when it was a respectable paper.

[Jit423]

28. Absolutely not true. Pew needs to a do over and someone else to use their methodology and reproduce the same results.

It's the real scientific method that counts.

[stillcool]

31. Has Judith Miller been rehired?

ah...anyone in any media can lie these days, as long as it's for the good of Donald. Old Gray Lady shit the bed.

[tanyev]

33. "Mr. Trump's brand of conservative populism"

Let me fix that, NYT: “Mr. Trump’s lies, false promises, appeals to racism, and flat out grifting”

[krawhitham]

35. Nope, not buying. We got 6.25M more votes in 2020. If they had showed up she would have won in 2024

6.25M votes in 2020 accounted for 8% of out total vote in 2020. In 2024

Wisconsin lost by less than 1%
Michigan lost by 1.4%
Pennsylvania lost by 1.7%
Georgia lost by 2.2%
Nevada lost by 3.1%
North Carolina lost by 3.2%
Arizona lost by 5.5%

That's 93 Electoral Votes (Harris would have had 319)



Even it you take into account the voters Turd picked up (3M), we have 3.25M votes missing instead of 6.25M. 3.25M votes would be 4% of the total vote in 2020. and as we know in 2024
Wisconsin was lost by less than 1%
Michigan was lost by 1.4%
Pennsylvania was lost by 1.7%
Georgia was lost by 2.2%
Nevada was lost by 3.1%
North Carolina was lost by 3.2%

That is still 82 Electoral Votes (Harris would have had 308)

[Doodley]

37. But Trump would also get more votes if everybody turned out.

[lostnfound]

38. If wishes were horses, beggars would fly. If a fascist were president, NYT would lie.

[Emile]

39. So Trump rigged the election.