Looks like the fuckers in Texas want to blame the NWS for not issuing alerts

[Aviation Pro]

A reminder to these D-students, the internet and the NWS archives are fucking forever.

https://alerts.weather.gov/search?history=1&start=2025-07-02T00%3A00%3A00Z&area=TX

[ForgedCrank]

1. I don't

know if I'm missing something, but those alerts all appear to be from today

[W_HAMILTON]

5. You click "Load More" and the older alerts are shown...

[Wiz Imp]

2. Understand blaming NWS is blaming Trump

[Silent Type]

3. Blaming Texas for screwing up is blaming the same MFers. They are all inbred.

[TheProle]

18. Who are inbred?

[Silent Type]

21. Texas GOPers are inbred with national GOPers.

[TheProle]

22. Oh

[Jack Valentino]

30. Yup, it's TRUMP's NWS now...

[Wiz Imp]

31. Texas officials deserve their share of the blame too, but the biggest part of fault for this disaster is on Trump.

Edited to add: AND Noem.

[Mary Adeline]

4. Texas Floods

There were major staff cuts in both the Houston office and the Austin/San Antonio office of the National Weather Service because of DOGE; this could easily be a reason there was confusion about alarms; the flooding happened very quickly. Several people were killed from a tornado in Kentucky a month or so ago, because the alarm system wasn't activated due to staff firings. If those Texas fuckers do blame the NWS it will just alert the public to how dangerous the DOGE firings were.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

35. Welcome to DU

[Strelnikov_]

6. Emergency response is a local function

That is, response to warnings and operations plans for evacuation.

Appears to me it was grossly inadequate, as is typical across the country, in my experience.

Look at the McCook Lake SD fiasco from a year ago. Thankfully not deadly, but some Trump level incompetence.

My general impression of Emergency Management around the country is a lot of cosplay, kinda like the Uvalde Swat team.

Bottom line, from the Climate work I have done, local extreme rainfall events will increase in frequency. The Emergency Management biz needs to up its game.

[Strelnikov_]

8. And, to add, one FEMA function was to

help the locals up their game regarding Emergency Management.

Now, it appears it’s all up the locals to roll their own.

[TheBlackAdder]

7. John Morales on National Weather Service cuts and how it will impact hurricane season

[MagickMuffin]

9. Who is responsible for Alerting Officials at 3:30 in the morning?

Not sure how Weather Warnings get sent to the local authorities, but it appears that Mother Nature does what she does.

I actually watched a video of the surge and it was pretty fascinating, the water was slowly building and then bam it was rushing in a high rate of swiftly moving through the area. I’ll see if I can locate the video.

Flood Warning
7/4/2025 03:33 CDT through 7/5/2025 00:30 CDT

Flood Warning issued July 4 at 3:33AM CDT until July 5 at 12:30AM CDT by NWS Austin/San Antonio TX
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Texas... Guadalupe River at Hunt affecting Kerr County. * WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is forecast. * WHERE...Guadalupe River at Hunt. * WHEN...Until just after midnight tonight. * IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, Major flooding of low areas of recreation camps along the North and South Forks washes canoes and gear downstream from docks and low areas. Roads near the river, including along Highway 39, are extremely dangerous for auto traffic and travel is highly discouraged. Autos in low areas of Camp Waldemar are swept downstream. Flow is near the USGS 1:10 year flood level. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 3:20 AM CDT Friday the stage was 14.0 feet. - Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet. - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours ending at 3:20 AM CDT Friday was 14.0 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.2 feet this morning. It will then fall below flood stage this afternoon. - Flood stage is 10.0 feet. - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 19.9 feet on 09/26/1986. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
Instructions
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. To escape rising water, take the shortest path to higher ground. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Additional information is available at www.weather.gov. The next statement will be issued this evening by 945 PM CDT.
Sender NWS Austin/San Antonio TX
Sent 7/4/2025 03:33 CDT
Updates
urn id:2.49.0.1.840.0.7cbf33cac40aad2960bb92eddc4770c448ef572d.001.1
Kerr, TX

[Aviation Pro]

10. Emergency Management Offices

Should be staffed 24x7.

[MagickMuffin]

15. Here's a link to a video showing the start of surge to the crest of hwy 480

I watched this last night start to finish. The videographer was on the Hwy 480 and shows the start of the surge, and how fast it evolved in a very short span of time.

The whole video last 38ish minutes. From start of the surge to the cresting of the bridge. Incredible footage.

I think he Gavin might have recorded directly to fb.

https://www.facebook.com/gavin.walston/videos/737883768645731

[Abolishinist]

23. AMAZING footage, at least for one who is just now getting up to speed on this.

It starts as nothing then continually builds up. I didn't watch the whole thing, skipping around, but at 35:00 there's a whole house floating down before being stopped by the bridge!

Thanks for posting this!

[dalton99a]

24. +1. Incredible video

[Phoenix61]

27. That's just insane! I can't begin to imagine how one

would prepare for something like that. It’s amazing the bridge held.

[Melon]

11. Nobody...nobody predicted they would get 1/2 year rain in 2 days

I’m so sick of this blame game already.
The camp where all of the little girls are missing has been in that same spot for 100 years.

There was no reason to believe that a drought stage river would rise 30 feet in 1 hour time. At its peak, the Guadalupe rose 12.93 feet in 15 minutes. It’s not comprehensible how bad the situation became by the minute. Their is footage of a house washing down the river with people inside.

[waterwatcher123]

17. I totally agree with you.

The USGS stream gauge sites show the upper reaches of the river going from base flow to above flood stage in less than two hours. These narrow watersheds funnel water very quickly into the mainstem where water levels rise correspondingly fast. You mentioned that the area was in drought too. Drought makes soil less permeable and likely contributed more runoff than would be expected as well. I doubt anyone could have predicted rainfall amounts any better than the NWS (too many variables). They could have automated warnings on the USGS stream gauges that measure the rate of change over time. However, it is a judgement call to order an evacuation early in a storm (especially in the middle of the night).

I worked the aftermath of a 500 year storm event that hit our area (walked and photo documented the damage). Lots of the damage occurred because humans fundamentally altered natural drainage patterns and removed the sponges (wetlands). I think it cost about 200 million dollars just to fix the infrastructure (luckily no loss of life).

The local governments who allow all this unfettered development in flood prone areas bear a large part of the responsibility. They have engineers who can calculate the 100 year event for a development project. However, they rarely look at the watershed as a whole and the risks associated with certain locations (requires an awareness of their place in a watershed).

The real problem is that this Trump administration is in total denial of what climate change means for a rapidly changing world. The planet and atmosphere could care less what Trump and his cronies believe. But the people will pay the price for the indifference and ignorance (so sorry for the loss of life).

[Dan]

12. Even God hates donald trump

[angrychair]

13. 56%

The majority of Texas wanted NWS and NOAA budget slashed.
I'm very sorry people died and got hurt but this is, very literally, what they voted to happen.

The state has made their feelings about science and scientists very clear.
That willful ignorance, that hate, has consequences.

[Emile]

14. They'll be whining about FEMA next.

[surfered]

16. I think one Texas official complained about the forecast amount of 3-6 inches of rain. Actual was 13"

But I’m no expert.

[msongs]

19. going by the wide bridge span somebody knew the area flooded nt

[Gimpyknee]

25. Hell, these dumbasses blamed Obama for Hurricane Katrina.

[Norrrm]

26. Let Texas blame NWS. It blames Trump. Go right along with them. Let Trump defend it.

[susanr516]

28. We live in Corpus Christi

We bought a nightstand clock radio that automatically alerts when a warning is issued by the National Weather Service. It automatically transmits warnings for our area. It's loud enough to wake almost anyone. I don't understand why city and county employees did not get these radios for their offices and homes. It is designed to switch to battery power if you lose electricity.

[Initech]

29. Gee, who's fault is that?

And yet the three assholes will keep getting elected. Greg Abbott needs to be flushed down the sewer he came from.

[Wiz Imp]

32. Apparently, Noem today tried to blame Biden (big surprise!) It was totally disgusting.

[pecosbob]

33. Part of the plan...FOX will broadcast fake news slandering the agency and then they will defund it further.

[RussBLib]

34. interesting take in "The Eyeball" on Substack

Warnings were issued. The worst happened in the middle of the night, and as we have learned, Camp Mystic had a strict "no technology" policy so as to preserve an "authentic camp experience." In short, it was God's will.

snip

The warnings

Flash flood warnings were issued for areas before midnight as radar rain totals began to inflate up and over 3 to 4 inches. A flash flood emergency was issued at 4 AM for the Kerrville storms and 4:15 AM for storms near San Angelo. Rain totals were estimated to be encroaching on 10 inches at that point. So there was warning. This NWS office is acutely aware of the threats to the area from flooding, and the history is there. So I am assuming they were timely warnings unless I hear otherwise.

Issuing the warning is half the process. Were the warnings received and acted on? That's another story. And that will also come out in the days ahead. More on that below.

Did budget cuts play a role?

No. In this particular case, we have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that current staffing or budget issues within NOAA and the NWS played any role at all in this event. Anyone using this event to claim that is being dishonest. There are many places you can go with expressing thoughts on the current and proposed cuts. We've been very vocal about them here. But this is not the right event for those takes.

In fact, weather balloon launches played a vital role in forecast messaging on Thursday night as the event was beginning to unfold. If you want to go that route, use this event as a symbol of the value NOAA and NWS bring to society, understanding that as horrific as this is, yes, it could always have been even worse.

Some graphics included at this link: https://theeyewall.substack.com/p/making-sense-of-the-weather-that?r=2g70e&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&fbclid=IwY2xjawLWwutleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFOVHJ5cFpjSEVzV0l2d3RTAR4jNov-95lDqijHJg17Z-yZHJObdSeha7E5umfDHC2hrQ5KaV1rXNME0nSgtg_aem_BjCHWaMKtfPPkf4TB14sCw&triedRedirect=true

[LetMyPeopleVote]

36. NYT-As Floods Hit, Key Roles Were Vacant at Weather Service Offices in Texas (gift links)

Some experts say staff shortages might have complicated forecasters’ ability to coordinate responses with local emergency management officials.

🚨 NYT: As Floods Hit, Key Roles Were Vacant at Weather Service Offices in Texas

Some experts say staff shortages might have complicated forecasters’ ability to coordinate responses with local emergency management officials.

Gift link:

— MeidasTouch (@meidastouch.com) 2025-07-06T04:33:59.776Z

Link to tweet

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/05/us/politics/texas-floods-warnings-vacancies.html?unlocked_article_code=1.UU8.Zjkx.evidtrUYt_ZY&smid=tw-share

Crucial positions at the local offices of the National Weather Service were unfilled as severe rainfall inundated parts of Central Texas on Friday morning, prompting some experts to question whether staffing shortages made it harder for the forecasting agency to coordinate with local emergency managers as floodwaters rose.....

The staffing shortages suggested a separate problem, those former officials said — the loss of experienced people who would typically have helped communicate with local authorities in the hours after flash flood warnings were issued overnight.

The shortages are among the factors likely to be scrutinized as the death toll climbs from the floods. Separate questions have emerged about the preparedness of local communities, including Kerr County’s apparent lack of a local flood warning system. The county, roughly 50 miles northwest of San Antonio, is where many of the deaths occurred......

The National Weather Service’s San Angelo office, which is responsible for some of the areas hit hardest by Friday’s flooding, was missing a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster and meteorologist in charge, according to Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, the union that represents Weather Service workers.

The Weather Service’s nearby San Antonio office, which covers other areas hit by the floods, also had significant vacancies, including a warning coordination meteorologist and science officer, Mr. Fahy said. Staff members in those positions are meant to work with local emergency managers to plan for floods, including when and how to warn local residents and help them evacuate.

That office’s warning coordination meteorologist left on April 30, after taking the early retirement package the Trump administration used to reduce the number of federal employees, according to a person with knowledge of his departure......

John Sokich, who until January was director of congressional affairs for the National Weather Service, said those unfilled positions made it harder to coordinate with local officials because each Weather Service office works as a team. “Reduced staffing puts that in jeopardy,” he said......

An equally important question, he added, was how the Weather Service was coordinating with local emergency managers to act on those warnings as they came in.

“You have to have a response mechanism that involves local officials,” Dr. Uccellini said. “It involves a relationship with the emergency management community, at every level.”

But that requires having staff members in those positions, he said......

Typically, Mr. Sokich said, the Weather Service will send an official to meet regularly with local emergency managers for what are called “tabletop operations” — planning ahead of time for what to do in case of a flash flood or other major weather disaster.

But the Trump administration’s pursuit of fewer staff members means remaining employees have less time to spend coordinating with local officials, he said.

I have been through a number of hurricanes/storms including Ike, Allison, Harvey and lately Berly. There were weather service people coordinating with local officials during all of these storms. Here the DOGE and trump cuts meant that the weather service did not have the staff available to coordinate with the local officials.