A final, comprehensive look at how Trump won in 2024 and how Democrats lost core parts of their coalition

[Celerity]

https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/a-final-comprehensive-look-at-how



Shortly before the July 4 holiday, Pew Research released their long-awaited analysis of the 2024 presidential contest, the final major report that political analysts look to to understand what happened in an election. Pew examined how different populations voted, how their votes shifted, and to what extent they turned out to vote. This report complements Catalist’s “What Happened” analysis and the AP VoteCast survey, and all three tell similar stories about Donald Trump’s victory.

Using an average of all three datasets, we get our clearest picture yet of how the electorate shifted from 2020 to 2024. Trump earned a second term primarily due to gains with groups that have been drifting away from Democrats for several years, most of whom have historically supported the party: young people, racial minorities (especially blacks and Hispanics), men, and lower-income voters. With the publication of Pew’s report, we can now take a deeper dive—using the most comprehensive data available—into the story of the 2024 election and identify some overarching takeaways.



The rightward shift nationally was propelled almost entirely by non-white voters.

Though racial minorities overall supported Kamala Harris, there was a clear move to the right among three populations: blacks, Hispanics, and Asians. Black Americans were still one of the most pro-Democratic groups, backing Harris by 68 points (83 percent to 15 percent), but this represented a 14-point rightward swing from just four years earlier, with Trump nearly doubling his vote share from eight percent to 15. The movement was especially pronounced among black men, who shifted toward Trump by more than any other demographic cohort—22 points. And even black women moved right by nine points.

The group that swung by the most along racial or ethnic lines, though, was Hispanics. Longtime TLP readers will know that Democrats have been losing support from Hispanic Americans for some time now, so this development in last year’s election wasn’t exactly surprising. What was more remarkable is that Trump won a greater share of the Hispanic vote than any Republican presidential nominee on record: 45 percent. The result—a mere seven-point advantage for Harris—made Hispanics a true swing group in this last election.

snip

[Baitball Blogger]

1. Also can be retitle: Groups who in 2024 discovered that the grass is indeed NOT greener on the other side.

[Strelnikov_]

40. or, "The Leopards Guide To Whats for Dinner"

[SickOfTheOnePct]

2. I often disagree with your positions...

…but I always appreciate that you bring solid data to the table.

The plan to move forward is in the data, the question is how do we tease it out so that we focus on the issues that matter to the folks that moved right in the last election.

[Funtatlaguy]

3. I remember the warnings in October 2024

There was a lot of screaming from democratic analysts on how Hispanics and Black men were abandoning the party in droves.
I don’t know what efforts, if any, were made to change that.
But that killed us.

[WSHazel]

4. If those numbers were correct

The Harris would have lost by about 6 points. Did she lose by 6 points? A lot of these detailed stats don’t work when you try to compile them up.

That said, I do believe that directionally these are accurate, and I think it leads to some pretty simple fixes, including laying off the negative identity politics. Calling everyone Democrats don’t agree with “racist” isn’t working.

[yourout]

6. The problem is they are largely"racist". How do you get people to open their eyes..

And see the forest through the trees?

[EdmondDantes_]

8. Your theory is that black, Asian, and hispanic men and women are racist?

Seems like that theory isn't supported by the evidence. I know it's easy to reduce Republicans to a cartoon villain, but that's not working for us.

[Keepthesoulalive]

11. A lot of ethnics can be and are racist

The number of black men voting for trump was insignificant and some people might think Clarence isn’t self hating. Donald J Trump did identity politics and got large swaths of people to vote to be deported and to blow Gaza off the map. The Democrats spoke of inclusion, the republicans spoke of DEI and it resonated with the racists in this country. Please stop excluding the majority of white Americans that voted for this mess. If the majority of white Americans would vote for what is best for this country instead of trying to hurt others we would not have the seesaw effect and we could make real progress.

[Melon]

15. The stats are grouped by race. Almost everything is down.

So you want to go through and label everything by race, age, gender and then classify it to excuse it?

How about one big number and just knowing we lost? It wasn’t racist, bigoted, uneducated, etc etc etc.

Harris was not the right candidate and Biden was not viewed by the general population as having done a good job. That’s it. We need a fresh candidate and campaign them early. Not Harris, someone new.

[Keepthesoulalive]

18. Why do you blame democrats for what republicans do

His message of hate resonated also he is a first rate con man. The majority of white people in this country have not voted for democrats since the civil rights movement. We always have a choice even though it is limited to 2 parties. You vote for a person who can make things better or you vote for a convicted felon who screwed things up the first time. If Americans choose to be uninformed that’s on them. The vice president had plans to keep this country moving forward, they chose a mentally unstable dimwit who is also a sexual predator. You can turn off Fox News you don’t have to listen to Alex crying man and Joe Rogan. Americans must stop being influenced by paid actors or the future will be grim.

[Wiz Imp]

33. Correct. Too many people here don't realize that a Democrat has NEVER won the majority of the White vote

since 1964. The Civil Rights Act was signed into law in July 1964, and following the election that November, all the racist Southern Democrats switched parties to Republican. The Republican Party has been the "white Man's" Party ever since.

[PunkinPi]

71. This, exactly this. K&R

[NJCher]

81. Then how do you account for

The huge crowds for Harris and the empty seats at trump rallies?

[Wiz Imp]

23. Hispanic is not officially a race. It is considered an ethnicity.

According to the 2020 Census, 57.8% of Hispanic persons reported being a single race. 17.6% said White, 2.5% said American Indian or Alaska Native, 1.8% said Black or African American, and 35.4% said some other race which would include people who claimed their race to be Hispanic or Latino (even though it is not officially a race). There are certainly a lot of Hispanics who are bigoted against Blacks and vice versa. Not to mention there is a significant amount of animosity between many different Hispanic populations. You can find thousands of comments online like this one:

Im latin american myself, and ive heard endless stories and experiences from family members, friends and many people online, that moved to the USA, and say, atleast 95% of the discrimination you might encounter in the country is by other latin americans that already live there.

There has been too many cases of latinos conspiracing to screw other latinos up, and getting them fired from a job, humillations, slurs, abusive latin american bosses that dont want to pay you well, and a constant attitude of looking others above the shoulder.

These situations arent caused only by 1st generation inmigrants but also by descendants that are born there aswell, and sometimes these last ones are even worse. Like the well known case of the "Chicanos" who are usually direct descendants of Mexican inmigrants, and well, there has been many cases where these people are known for their abusive treatment towards other latin american inmigrants, making their lifes hell. Too many of them have very far right and conservative views reaching bigot behavior.

[WSHazel]

9. I don't care about hardcore MAGA

They are irredeemable. There are still a lot of traditional Republicans and independents that voted for Trump that don’t like being called racist. And there are a lot of men of color that are also afraid of being canceled for whatever borderline comment they may make. This approach drives people off.

I don’t think Democrats need to make everyone comply with some social justice standard. We just want to give equal opportunity to historically disadvantaged groups. For example, turning the attacks on DEI on Republicans by saying we are trying to even the playing field is an argument 60%+ of people can get behind. Claiming people are racist for not supporting quotas is a loser. Splitting the difference between those two arguments is a bit of art and science, but Democrats have been doing it badly for about a decade.

[fujiyamasan]

68. Quotas and race based affirmative action have been a loser for some time

Even here in CA. It doesn’t mean Californians will vote for a quack like ward Connelly, but enough polls have shown little support for race based affirmative action.

The problem with DEI is that most (whites especially) perceived it as rebranded affirmative action. It didn’t help that corporations and HR departments never made clear what the purpose of these programs was. It just became a box to check or a stamp of approval by Blackrock or whoever to sell a feel good, but otherwise useless financial product.

There was a real push for some racial justice after Floyd’s murder and I think in the aftermath, a different approach would have helped. Was it really necessary to explicitly state he would name X or Y demographic as his VP and SC pick? I doubt it was. In stating this, it also diminished Harris, who from then on was tagged as the “DEI hire”.

The reality is few people in the general public like HR, and somewhere along the way, democrats become the party of HR.

[WSHazel]

73. I think there is even support for affirmative action

I think a majority of Americans accept that there is systematic racism, and I also believe a majority are willing to tolerate some modest race-based advantages in things like college admissions or civil service jobs.

Where DEI went off the rails was with "Equity", which became a cover for all kind of absurdist attacks and demands. Claiming white privilege is everywhere and claiming everyone who doesn't agree with them is racist on MSNBC or in the NYT opinion section is not going to get Democrats a single new vote among whites in some rust belt town in Ohio or Michigan where the factory left a generation ago, the schools are terrible, and there is no way out. Those rust belt voters don't feel very privileged. I think SJW's taking extremist positions on these issues were as much responsible for undermining the first black woman for President's candidacy as anything else anyone did in this past campaign.

[fujiyamasan]

74. It became particularly unhinged in places like SF

Where Asians suddenly became “white adjacent”.

Maybe because Biden was an old white guy, he felt like he couldn’t push back on some of the party’s more extreme elements, because honestly I don’t remember as much of a focus from the administration on race during Obama’s term.

[Midwestern Democrat]

82. I remember being shocked when I heard that at one point something like only 6% of Biden's appointments to the federal

bench were white men - obviously, it was felt that such an extreme approach was necessary to make up for the lack of diversity in the federal judiciary due to past appointments - but I'm like "Sins of the Father" is now going to be the modus operandi of the Democratic Party? We're going to tell one or two or three generations of white men they need to pay for the unfair advantages of the generations before them? And then we're shocked when young men in 2024 said "Screw You" in response? I had to laugh when I heard the DNC is spending $20 million to overpaid consultants for the purpose of "Understanding Men" - just take a look at the DNC's front page: http://www.democrats.org They need to first take Men 101 before they start shelling out $20 million for the more advanced knowledge.

[fujiyamasan]

83. It's a way for more "consultants" to grift the party

It’s a revolving grifting door.

Hell, I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of these consultants are alum of the previous administration.

Btw, do you have a link for the federal bench stat?

[Cirsium]

12. Right wing talking point

The charge that Democrats call everyone they don’t agree with “racist” is false. It is a right wing talking point.

[Melon]

16. Please. The heading racist is used ad nauseam here. But people in ethnic groups

Including black switched sides to vote. Did the become racist? No. They didn’t like the candidate versus the opposition. They can come back. People don’t switch from racist to non racist. That makes no sense.

We do term to much racist, nazi, etc. and it turns people away because it’s a simple excuse that doesn’t match the reality.

[AZProgressive]

19. One thing that is always consistent about Trump is he has always been a racist

He was sued for housing discrimination when he first took over his dad's properties then there was the calling for the execution of the Central Park 5 ad in the 90s. Recently a judge said he's never seen such discrimination from the Trump administration.

I think some may have voted for Trump because he bought into his lies that migrants were taking "black jobs".

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/beyond-black-jobs-controversy

[Melon]

22. I don't disagree about trump

But I work with a lot of mexicans and latin american's. They don't like illegal immigrants. Flat out. My mexican co workers that are here legally talk bad about the illegals all the time. They believe that they should go through the process and when they move into the latin sections of neighborhoods the crime increases. That is flat out and I've tried having the conversation. But...they aren't racist.

All the demographics accept white old woman swung towards republicans. They didn't all become racist. They all aren't nazi. It's a laughable premise. They didn't like the democrats being soft on the border, and the Gaza situation. Harris was not put upfront and was largely kept out of public speaking after some early flubs in her 4 years. I don't believe personally she was a good candidate. So we lost.

If we keep taking this easy " they are all idiots", "they are all racist", "they are nazi," we miss the real message that our policies were not popular and our candidates were not strong enough. We need to make adjustments to win, not excuses.

[AZProgressive]

28. Trump is going after those who follow the legal process

I knew some right wing Mexican-Americans, the vast majority of Latinos in Arizona don't like Trump but the ones that tend to be right wing also are anti-black racists so I don't think they're that great of an example.

[Ms. Toad]

50. While I agree with your basic point that slapping an easy label on folks and dismissing them is stupid,

This statement you made is flat out wrong:

They believe that . . . when they move into the latin sections of neighborhoods the crime increases. . . . But...they aren't racist.

Immigrants who are here without a legal status commit crimes at a significantly lower rate than those here with a legal status. It is solely prejudice against those "illegals" driving their position. Not facts. Anyone who dismisses the factual data (or chooses not to research it) in order to cling to a belief "illegals" increase crime is racist, regardless of what they say.

[Melon]

62. So....the Mexicans not liking the Mexicans are racist?

makes no sense. The property crime in their area has increased with the large influx of illegal immigrants. That's their perception. They are having to take more precautions to protect their property. That is their perceptions. They vote in part to these perceptions. It's not because they are racist. It's just a weak premise. Then you dismiss what they are seeing as not matching the data. And next election they vote the same because now they see the immigrants that didn't cross legally leave their areas. This is in South Texas. We had so many immigrants come across the border in place that there were not ready jobs nor housing.
It's not racism. That is a complete copout easy answer that means nothing in this situation and is just an excuse. And they aren't Nazi's. Their needs weren't met by our message.

[EdmondDantes_]

72. Not really racist as race isn't the determining factor

Maybe classist or something since the dividing line is documentation status.

[fujiyamasan]

75. I'd be interested in seeing if this study has been updated

I’ve seen this cited quite a bit, but we haven’t seen the kind of influx previously, that we saw the last several years. My guess is it’s mostly accurate still, since undocumented migrants typically lay low to avoid any law enforcement interaction, but I’d like to see which years the statistics cover.

Either way the party needs a better understanding of the concerns of recent citizens/legal immigrants, and their disdain for illegal migration. They share the same concerns as native born citizens, and I think this is something party leadership has failed to either understand or communicate.

[Cirsium]

56. I am skeptical about that

I have worked with immigrants from Latin America for decades. I have never heard anyone "talk bad about the illegals." I am not saying that it doesn't happen, rather that I think that it is rare if it does happen. But even if your co-workers do, so what? You don't need to be white to fall for the "illegals" = crime nonsense, although it does seem to help. You don't need to be white to be ignorant either, although it apparently does help with that, too. Your coworkers seem ignorant of the fact that undocumented people commit crimes at a lower rate than the general population.

"Our policies" are extremely popular. Not sure how any Democrat could fail to know that.

You have internalized a bunch of right wing themes. That is where an adjustment is needed in order to win elections.

I object to your use of the term "illegal" to describe human beings.

[Melon]

66. " That is where an adjustment is needed in order to win elections" Yes.

We need a stronger elected candidate that can clearly define the program. We need to listen to areas that caused concern (Immigration, Gaza) and clarify the position and make adjustments when necessary.

I work with Latinos. They are the majority of the workforce where I work. Most from Mexico, some further south.

The party gets nothing by sticking to policy that is not popular that costs us the election.

[Cirsium]

21. Hard to believe

I find it hard to believe that I am reading this here. How common is this sentiment among Democrats?

The MAGA is a white nationalism movement, clearly, undeniably. Give that, l would expect far more discussion about racism than we see, especially among those who are supposedly opposed to MAGA. Instead, we see less than in the past, including in the 1960s and even back in the 1850s.

We have seen a huge increase in the complaints that there is "too much talk about racism." We have seen a huge increase in phony victimhood - "they called me a racist!" Oh, the horror.

We have also see an increase in calls from Democrats to abandon various people and positions for fear that support for those people and positions "turns people away." Talk about an excuse!

Black people can support racist polities, just as women as support misogynistic politics. The idea that the Republicans can't be racist because some Black people vote for Republicans is itself a racist right wing talking point.

[Melon]

25. Look at the stats

All of those people didn't "become" racist.
If that was true we should all go home. They won't come back from racism.

They didn't like our candidate or our policies. Excuses don't win the next elections. Be real and make adjustments to have a better outcome in 2026.

Running around calling everyone racist or nazi because they voted against us gets eye rolls and no votes.

[WSHazel]

38. Harris was a good candidate

I don't think Harris was the problem and I think she was a very good candidate. I think some of our policies, and frankly, some of the Democratic influencers are the problem.

[Cirsium]

55. Huh?

What are you talking about? Who said all of those people became racist? No one.

[fujiyamasan]

76. I'm not even sure all of this comes down to race

At least outside of the true MAGA contingent, which is undeniably racist at its core.

A lot of people of all races simply did not like what they saw happening at the border. That was not necessarily driven by racism, but a concern that we had a massive influx at the border and the administration was not seemingly addressing the issue effectively.

Try telling the homeless people in Chicago why they needed to give up their spot in the nearby homeless shelter in the dead of winter because Venezuelans were streaming in. We also never got a good explanation why so many Venezuelans and others were given amnesty and TPS in the first place. It made a mockery of asylum laws, because people were not even escaping persecution in many cases.

[Keepthesoulalive]

29. You are focusing on presidential elections

Why do people from rural areas and poor states keep voting for people who don’t hep them. Congress and the senate are always close. Why? Do they like poverty , poor schools, lack of medical care, and billionaires who steal their resources, I’m looking at you Appalachia. Oh yeah and picking people up because of the color of their skin and sending them to different hell hole countries without due process is Nazi and I am going to call it that.

[Wiz Imp]

34. A large portion of Black Trump voters probably did so because of bigoted attitudes towards immigrants.

At least in part.

[Keepthesoulalive]

39. Very few black males voted for trump

It was more belonging to the cool kids. Some people want to hang with winners even though the noose is for them.

[Wiz Imp]

46. Huh? Between 20% & 25% of Black Males voted for Trump. That's not very few. That's significant.

Especially compared to historical voting patterns. And I can attest personally to the fact that many Black males are extremely bigoted against immigrants and in an election where Immigration was front and center, I think that was a deciding factor for many.

Your claim that Black Males voted for Trump to "belong to the cool kids" is actually pretty damn insulting.

[Keepthesoulalive]

48. I think it's more insulting saying they were racist

Many people don’t invest a lot of thought in voting, when asked by other black people who were interviewing them they could not give a coherent answer. Something about the orange con man touches some easily influenced folk. If every black man voted for Harris it would not have mattered. You need to work on the 64% of white men. Black men were only second to black women in terms of voting to save this country.LBJ said we would lose the south for a generation ,he was wrong we will never win the Deep South or most of the middle of the united state states.

[Wiz Imp]

57. 🙄

[Keepthesoulalive]

59. I'm not sure what you mean

Are you in the community, we have spoken to some of the misguided young men and they were influenced by bullshit. Trump is going to give us some coin and he gave us something during Covid. If it was racism, racist against whom.

[fujiyamasan]

78. Yes, the "Trump checks" were great branding

Even though Biden increased covid stimulus and vaccine push enabled the economy to open, all the other issues (border and inflation, and multiple overseas crises not his fault) just snowballed.

[Keepthesoulalive]

84. I see how dictators come to power

Some deluded easily fooled black people as well as Hispanics who didn’t realize he hated all of them voted for their pain. I am appalled at the power of the influencers and billionaires to make weak minded fools give them their money and the benefits we have fought for the last 80 years.

[fujiyamasan]

86. Yes, so much of it comes down to basic grifting

Appeal to people’s greed.

Earlier it was gold. All the right wing stations had so many ads for gold and reverse mortgages. It preyed to their core demographic which was insecure seniors.

They knew they had to make some changes with younger folks, so… Join my course to learn crypto! You can easily 10x your money!

There’s a reason crypto became so popular especially among younger minorities.

[fujiyamasan]

77. Or they felt like the administration

Was not addressing their economic concerns (namely inflation), while at the same time recently arrived migrants were getting free shelter.

Whether or not that was actually the case, that was certainly the perception among many.

[betsuni]

26. Today saw mention of Rush Limbaugh's 1994 claim that Chelsea Clinton's school required

students to write a paper on "Why I Feel Guilty Being White." Enduring right-wing talking point that Democrats hate white people, call everyone they don't agree with racist.

[muriel_volestrangler]

70. The figures in the OP are *shifts* from 2020 to 2024, not the margins in 2024

As it says, "average percentage-point margin change. For example, in 2020, Joe Biden averaged a 74.7-point advantage with black men over Trump, but in "2020" [that should read "2024" - ed.] Kamala Harris averaged a 53-point margin with them, resulting in a 21.7-point rightward shift."

In 2020, Biden won the national vote by 4.5 percentage points; in 2024, Trump won it by 1.5 percentage points.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election

So, yes, an overall shift of 6 percentage points is what the elections showed.

[Aristus]

5. Because a bunch of brainless incels looked at Trump's soft, doughy body,

makeup-spackled face, cheap suits, ugly ties, waddling gait, and pre-school temper tantrums, and thought: "That's the kind of macho I want to be!..."

[biocube]

7. Republicans had a narrative...

The problem is immigration and other countries cheating us on free trade and trans people. Democrats narrative was "the status quo is great".

Zohran Mamdani showed how to win male votes as well as in neighborhoods that went majority for Trump. Adopt New-Deal politics, and tell Mark Cuban and Reid Hoffman if they don’t like it to make their donations to Republicans.

[Uncle Joe]

10. The total vote count dropped from 20's 155+ million to 24's 152+ million because the people were disillusioned.

The greatest soft power strength of the United States. was its' perceived universality, but that took a serious beating with Gaza, and I imagine that on one level it's easier for non-white voters to walk in the Palestinian People's shoes.

Thanks for the thread Celerity

[WarGamer]

17. 2020 was an "asterisk election"

Because of enhanced voting laws altered by COVID-19...

Comparing 2020 to 2024 or 2016 isn't worth much.

[Uncle Joe]

27. It wasn't just Covid-19 that made 2020 special.

2020 was the first year that Millennials surpassed Baby Boomers as the largest % of the total population, with Millennials and Gen Xers making up almost half of the total vote count and the younger generations were were among the first and most passionate protesters against the ongoing slaughter in Gaza.

[jalan48]

13. Biden dropping out just months before the election was a big problem for our Party.

Not our best moment in Presidential election history.

[Shrek]

14. "Harris would not have fared better with higher turnout."

Though much of the analysis from these studies focused on how different populations voted and the extent to which voting patterns changed from 2020, another important piece of the picture was about turnout. It is true that from one election to the next, the same voters won’t always show up. Some only turn out for a specific candidate rather than a party. Some who sit out one election might vote the next time around. Every election includes new voters who were not previously registered. These changes can be crucial factors behind a candidate’s win or loss.

One popular theory in some Democratic circles following Harris’s loss is that the real culprit was millions of Biden voters who stayed home. These explanations seemed to suggest that Harris’s attempts to moderate during the campaign—or to insufficiently express outrage over the war in Gaza—had so soured part of the party’s base that many of them chose the couch instead of the voting booth on Election Day.

However, Pew’s study demonstrates that this theory was deeply misguided. Using publicly available voter-file data, they concluded that even if there every American had cast a ballot, not only would Trump still have won, but he actually would have increased his popular vote margin by a percentage point.4 Pew found that 44 percent of these non-voters would have backed Trump, 40 percent would have voted for Harris, and fully 13 percent would have supported a third party. Perhaps just as notable? People who didn’t vote in 2020 but who turned out in 2024 broke for Trump.

All this points to a hard truth for Democrats: it’s far from a given that the Biden voters who stayed home in 2024 would have backed Harris had they turned out.

Interesting because the bolded sentence has been fairly conventional wisdom around here.

[Bettie]

24. Misogyny

is the answer I keep returning to.

Everyone says they'd vote for a woman as president, but when push comes to shove the answer is always "Yeah, but not THAT woman" and the secret is that they are all "that woman".

[JoFerret]

31. Simplistic

Not more simplistic responses please. just not good enough.
And let's not start with racism again.
This is not to say that racism, misogyny and homophobia are not real - they are.

But we have to go below the easy answers for why the Dems lost so much of their base in 2024. And then we need to figure out how we need to get back on track to have a chance with the mid-terms.

[Keepthesoulalive]

45. Can we focus on the senate and congress

That has been the real roadblock . Republicans have blocked most of the progressive legislation put forth by democratic presidents and passed the most destructive bill of our lifetime. A large portion of this country wants to hurt others, they are so brainwashed they believe in a deep state, chemtrails, welfare queens and Hispanics are criminals. They are not fighting to make this country better or they would vote better.

[Wiz Imp]

37. They are leaping to a nonsensical conclusion.

The aim of each party in a Presidential election is to get as many people to vote for their party as possible. Republicans also prioritize preventing people from voting Democratic. The Harris campaign would have no interest in generically larger turnout and neither would Trump's campaign. However, It would clearly have been beneficial to Harris if they could have gotten more of her own potential voters to vote. According to Pew there were 10s of millions of people who would have voted for Harris if they had voted. If the Harris campaign had been able to get just 250,000 out of those millions of potential voters to vote for her spread in the right ratio between Pennsylvania, Michigan & Wisconsin, Harris wins the election. Thereby proving that claim that higher turnout wouldn't have helped Harris as ridiculously false.

[leftstreet]

44. That's a good point n/t

[standingtall]

67. And that just shows that Pew research on this cannot be trusted with this research

The claim that if American voted Trump would've still won. Not only defies conventional wisdom in this past election, but every election for the last 100 years. Every voter implies all young people are going to vote. Harris may not have done as well with them as usual, but She still won a majority of those. So if if they all voted She would bank votes and older people already turnout in higher numbers. Poor people don't vote much, Harris won the majority of them that make less than 25k and if they all turnout She banks votes again. If all Americans turned out I think She probably wins the poplar vote handily and and even if She didn't She'd still win the electoral College, because heavy turnout that would swing key States where it was close like Georgia,North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Swing States that either have demographics that favor her or have huge Cities that favor her or both. If you got 100% turnout there would be to many votes coming in Harris's favor for republicans to find enough votes in the rural areas and the suburbs to offset it. You can't do a scientific poll of every person. This is just Pew doing a kiss the Trump ring propaganda nonsense.

[andym]

20. Below is the figure for the overall voter breakdown by Pew. Trump's coalition was more diverse than previously

Worth adding to the OP.

[Celerity]

41. Thank you for the additional data

[Omnipresent]

30. The ongoing open border many people complained about.

Reminded me of the daily countdown, during the Iran hostage crisis. President Carter didn’t benefit from this either. It just went on for too long for voters to accept.

[WSHazel]

42. The only people that really cared about the border

were going to vote for Trump anyway. The border was a modest mistake by Biden, but didn't kill him.

Look at the stats. Harris lost ground with constituencies that Democrats claim to speak for, while not picking up ground with anyone. Democrats did lose Virginia and almost lost New Jersey governorships in 2021 over CRT, and we never course corrected. In fact, if you watched or read most Left leaning media, we seemed to double down.

[fujiyamasan]

79. The border played to Trump's strength

I think this was the first election in years, where immigration became one of the top 3 concerns for the general public. It was ranked higher than what democrats ranked as their top issues (such as abortion).

I think it had a larger impact than people care to admit, because it was a policy failure and it should never have reached the point it did.

[MichMan]

32. Historically, only one sitting VP has won election since 1836

Only single time since then was in 1988. Just once in nearly 190 years.

Biden's favorability ratings were quite low and as VP, Harris was unable to differentiate herself from him.

[sarisataka]

35. So perhaps all those preelection polls that were dismissed out of hand

As poorly conducted, media manipulation, or propaganda, were actually accurate?

The next time we receive negative data.I wonder if it will be taken seriously.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

36. Yes.

[WarGamer]

53. Old enough to remember that.

[Polybius]

64. You were one of the few who saw the writing on the wall

At times, it seemed we were alone.

[Polybius]

63. All those who dismissed them here were extremely naive, and I'm being kind

Search my posts, I warned everyone. Instead of taking me serious, I was laughed at or blocked.

[fujiyamasan]

80. Yes there was a lot of delusion

talk of a landslide, dismissing poor early vote numbers in Nevada, or Trump’s increasing strength with black and Latino males, so much hype over the Iowa Selzer poll.

I thought she would squeak it out with the blue wall, but polling showed all three states on a knife’s edge. I never had much hope for AZ or GA.

[H2O Man]

43. Recommended.

It is important to recognize that while so many important numbers were down, that does not mean that all of them voted for maga. Obvious, some did. But the party's ability to get those who just didn't vote in 2024 to support them is important. There were statistics that stood out in 2016 that should have put party leaders on notice.

[FoggyLake]

47. They left out the part where Musk cheated for Trump

[TheRickles]

49. I'm guessing that the Hispanic vote will shift more to the Dems in 2026.

Trump's harsh immigration policies have hit them the hardest, and this could easily be their response.

[CousinIT]

51. I'm not surprised by the men. Any of them. But WHAT self-respecting WOMAN ...

... would vote Republican or NOT vote at all with so much at stake?

Do they think they have nothing to lose? Do they believe they have the PRIVILEGE of taking their human rights for granted, as well as those they care about?

That level of ignorance...I can't respect it. NOPE.

[JCMach1]

52. How much of those % are people just staying home?

Don't assume it's a RIGHT shift. It's likely an apathy, butts on couch shift.

[Blue Spark]

54. I just finished reading the article.

This is the thing that stood out to me. Why did so many people who voted for Biden in 2020 stay home in 2024? We have to figure that out.

Harris received 79% of Biden’s 2020 voters. Compared with Trump’s 2020 voters, a larger share of Biden’s didn’t vote in 2024 (15%), and 6% voted for Trump or another candidate.

[JCMach1]

61. Voter suppression full court press

1. Purge of voter rolls
2. Broad social media messaging
3. Highly targeted Obama Coalition messaging

Meanwhile, we Dems were not running a counter campaign to keep GOP butts on the counch.

We want to win the Midterms, we need to drop the 'Go High' strategy and heavily use and message #2 and #3 (switch out for lukewarm MAGA'sfrom Obama Coalition)

[Polybius]

65. Because 2020 was different, with record turn-out

Covid made voting super easy, with plenty of first-time voters due to mail-in voting everywhere. With many states taking that away, they were also last-time voters. We were never expected to replicate it.

[Kaleva]

85. Which states eliminated mail in voting?

While a number of states put more restrictions on mail in voting, almost all of them were Red states. The only battle ground state that I see that increased restrictions was Georgia.

[standingtall]

69. Democrats have to invest in secondary media

Several things happen sense Jan 6. First off 5 minutes later MSM began normalizing Trump. A new cable News network launched promoting that it was going to just report the news without bias and then 5 minutes later it turned into a right wing hellscape. The world's richest man bought twitter and turned into a Nazi platform helping Trump. Several papers refused to publish endorsements of Harris and bunch pod casters who either previously presented themselves as either A-political, centrist or even left leaning, because they wanted to a payday kiss Trumps ring and endorsed him. Lots of people who are not well informed politically get their news from non traditional sources and some of those people got gaslighted with lies and misinformation. Democrats need to invest and flood the zone with independent left leaning media to avoid this happening in the future.

[GusBob]

58. It was thought, after that lame garbage island joke at RNC

It was thought the Hispanic vote was sewn up after that

Guess not

[dalton99a]

60. Kick