'Biggest thing that keeps Trump up at night': Dems announce major plan to counter GOP

[justaprogressive]

House Democrats are pushing back against President Donald Trump’s directive to eliminate Democratic seats in Texas by launching an aggressive redistricting strategy of their own—hiring top attorneys to help cut down the number of GOP-held seats in five key states, in the battle to retake control of the House from Speaker Mike Johnson and the Republicans.

Calling it “an extraordinary push,” CNN reported that House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wants to reorganize the congressional maps in California, New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Washington state, to help Democrats pick up as many seats as possible—if the courts allow it.

Currently, California has nine House Republicans. New York has seven. Minnesota has four, New Jersey has three, and Washington has two.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s plan reportedly could wipe out up to five of the 13 Democratic-held House seats in the Lone Star State. Ohio’s Governor Mike DeWine is also planning on redrawing districts in his state to try to eliminate some of the five Democratic-held seats in his state.

The Cincinnati Enquirer last week noted that “Republicans control every aspect of the redistricting process in Ohio,” including at the state Supreme Court.

https://www.alternet.org/dems-counter-gop/]

[The Blue Flower]

1. No, what keeps him awake at night is

Whose life can I wreck next? Who hasn't suffered enough yet? Is there a skin tone not terrorized yet?

[FBaggins]

2. 'Literally no way': Idea of redrawing WA's congressional map gets bipartisan brush off

U.S. House Democrats want to counter a move by Texas lawmakers to elect more Republicans. Washington state lawmakers say redistricting won’t happen here before next year’s midterms.

...snip...

“There is no there, there. There’s literally no way to get the results they are talking about before the 2026 election,” said Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen, D-Seattle. “We have already done our share to get Democrats in the House. There’s no juice to squeeze in the lemon here.”

House Majority Leader Joe Fitzbibbon, D-West Seattle, agreed. “It’s not on the table for us,” he said.

“We have an 8-2 delegation. It would take some very creative map drawing to get to 9-1. There’s no chance Republicans would be interested in helping us,” Fitzbibbon added.

https://washingtonstatestandard.com/2025/07/21/literally-no-way-idea-of-redrawing-was-congressional-map-gets-bipartisan-brush-off/

California isn't much more likely even with overwhelming control of the state government. It would take a constitutional amendment just to open the door... and even then we have too many existing blue seats at risk to reach for much more.

Minnesota is pretty evenly split and seems more likely to shift to a nonpartisan commission model than to redraw the lines in a partisan fashion.

I don't know much about NJ process re: the possibility of redrawing lines mid-cycle... but there's only one red seat (the 7th) that looks vulnerable to such a move.

Update on NY coming...

[cadoman]

3. at a certain point gerrymandering actually makes your candidates vulnerable

If you create a bunch of narrow margin districts you end up one bad policy away from losing seats.

Also, a big-name candidate for governor can pull in that extra 2-3% downballot..

[FBaggins]

4. True - and that would start to be an issue in TX if they actually try for five seats

It might be passingly possible in 2032 if the state picks up as many seats as some anticipate... but it would be awfully risky now (particularly if 2026 sees the anticipated blue shift)

The remaining blue seats (with the exception of the two along the border) are very blue. Some safe republicans would have to be willing to run competitive races.

I think they can pick up two without much risk... but five?

[FBaggins]

5. NY looks out - "NY Elections, Census and Redistricting Update 07/21/25"

New York has different rules. First, the state constitution prohibits a mid-decade redistricting. In Article III of the state constitution, Article III, Section 4 says that “a reapportionment plan and the districts contained in such plan shall be in force until the effective date of a plan based upon the subsequent federal decennial census taken in a year ending in zero unless modified pursuant to court order.” Further, the state Court of Appeals invalidated the 2022 remapping of the state’s congressional districts by the legislature because the map was determined to be a partisan gerrymander, in violation of other state constitutional requirements.

Technically, only the state senate map can be redrawn before 2030 if a court (in a new lawsuit) directs the state Independent Redistricting Commission goes back to work to finish the mapping it didn’t complete in 2022 and that map is approved by the state legislature and governor.

Unlike in Texas, where the state legislature can redraw a map without constraints or in California, where the state constitutional amendment process involves approval by the legislature followed by approval by the voters, the New York process can take over a year or more. New York’s constitution requires that any amendments be approved by two consecutively elected legislatures followed by a vote of the electorate. For example, an amendment passed by the Senate and Assembly in 2025 would have to pass in the same exact form by the new legislature elected in 2027 and then go to the voters for approval. An amendment introduced this year to change the redistricting process could not go into effect until late 2027, one year past the 2026 elections.


https://www.citylandnyc.org/ny-elections-census-and-redistricting-update-07-21-25/