July jobs report expected to show a labor market slowing to a crawl

[Demovictory9]

July jobs report expected to show a labor market slowing to a crawl

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/31/july-jobs-report-expected-to-show-a-labor-market-slowing-to-a-crawl.html

[Wiz Imp]

1. This illustrates a somewhat sinister trend I've noticed with all

Economic reports under Trump. The media always present the numbers compared to "expectations". The expectations always seem to be for a really weak report. Then, when the actual data is released and it beats "expectations'" it's always presented as good news. That even though the report compared to history is very weak.

Go back and look at all the news reports on economic data this year and they always say "beats expectation" but if you look in context of history, not a single economic release this year has been better than mediocre at best.

.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. Not true

1) Economic figure reporting has always been compared to expectations.

2) The data in tRump 2.0 has not always been expected to be "really weak".

3) The data turns out about half the time to beat expectations and half the time to fail to meet expectations. That's what "expected values" in statistics should do.

Avoid confirmation bias. Take today's data as an example. Do it. Surprise yourself.

[Wiz Imp]

6. Sheesh. 🙄 I should have been more precise but I didn't have the time at the time I made the post.

I was referring to the primary numbers that are widely publicized - Jobs/unemployment rate, CPI & GDP.

Economic reporting has often, not always been compared to expectations. But it hasn't always been the headline in every news story like it's been under Trump.

3 examples from last year from CNBC on the jobs report:

U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rose to 3.9%
Published Fri, Mar 8 2024
Job growth zoomed in March as payrolls jumped by 303,000 and unemployment dropped to 3.8%
Published Fri, Apr 5 2024
U.S. job creation roared higher in September as payrolls surged by 254,000
Published Fri, Oct 4 2024

The last 3 months this year:

U.S. payroll growth totals 177,000 in April, defying expectations
Published Fri, May 2 2025
U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%
Published Fri, Jun 6 2025
U.S. payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, more than expected
Published Thu, Jul 3 2025

All 3 of those were lousy reports but presented as positive

CPI Reports on CNBC this year

Inflation rate eased to 2.8% in February, lower than expected
Published Wed, Mar 12 2025
Inflation rate eases to 2.4% in March, lower than expected; core at 4-year low
Published Thu, Apr 10 2025
Annual inflation rate hit 2.3% in April, less than expected and lowest since 2021
Published Tue, May 13 2025
U.S. inflation rises 0.1% in May from prior month, less than expected
Published Wed, Jun 11 2025

Then in June when it didn't beat expectations:

Inflation picks up again in June, rising at 2.7% annual rate
Published Tue, Jul 15 2025

In reality, all the CPI data this year has been mediocre but it's being presented as positive.

GDP advance release headlines from CNBC:

U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses
Published Wed, Apr 30 2025
U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace even as Trump’s tariffs hit
Published Wed, Jul 30 2025

1st quarter - terrible report no comparison to expectations. 2nd quarter - beats expectations but underlying data is not that great, we get a positive headline about beating expectations.

I stand behind my original post.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

3. Only one out of eight

Today Consensus Last Month

218,000 222,000 217,000 Initial jobless claims July 26
0.9% 0.8% 0.9% Employment cost index Q2
0.3% 0.2% -0.4% Personal income June
0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Personal spending June
0.3% 0.3% 0.2% PCE index June
2.6% 2.5% 2.4% PCE (year-over-year)
0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Core PCE index June
2.8% 2.7% 2.8% Core PCE (year-over-year)

Initial jobless claims came very close to expectations, within data noise really. So did PCE June and Core PCE June.

Employment cost index, personal spending, PCE (yr on yr) and Core PCE came in worse than consensus expectations.

Personal income came in better than expected.

So of the 8 figures, 3 came in as expected, 1 was better, and 4 were worse. Today's data (as one example) runs against your claim. Only one out of eight was better than expected.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. The labour market is very tight

Companies are not hiring much, because of uncertainty. Workers (in fear of US government abductions) are not showing up but not appearing on unemployment statistics. GDP averaged on two quarters is 1.2%, kind of weak. Powell calls the labour market "in balance", but a balance is easily disturbed by macro-economic disruptions like tariff taxes, shrinking labour pool, and delayed layoffs. As to the latter, in October about 150,000 people will be eagerly looking for jobs because their government "deferred resignations" take effect at the end of September.

Your link needs membership or disabling ad blockers or something. Grayed out, can't read. But when I searched with the title, I got other similar reports like this one: https://www.morningstar.com/markets/july-jobs-report-forecast-show-further-softening-hiring

[Rebl2]

5. Been layoffs

and store closings in my area.