Gerrymander THIS. Republicans are Fucked if they play Abbot's and Trump's game. The math:

[Mr.WeRP]

Democrats will have an edge if all states do what TX is doing. Note: I assume max conversion of gerrymandering except for TX because we know there they can only pick up 5.

For blue states that gerrymander out republicans districts, we have
PA: 10 seats
CA: 9 seats
NY: 7 seats
WI: 6 seats
MN: 4 seats
CO: 4 seats
IL: 3 seats
NJ: 3 seats
WA: 2 seats
OR: 1 seat
MD: 1 seat
Note: no pickups possible in New England.

That’s a max pickup of 49 seats

On the opposite side the math goes this way:
FL: 8
GA: 5
OH: 5
TX: 5
NC: 4
IN: 2
AL: 2
MO: 2
LA: 2
KS: 1
MS: 1
SC: 1
TN: 1
That’s a max pickup of 37 seats

These states are typically red but have mixed control (Gov/Legislature) so likely no change: AZ, KY, NV, NH, VA

So if the states go to war this way, ultimately Republicans will lose up to 12 seats in the house for a very long time.

[SSJVegeta]

1. Not just that but the TX map could very well turn out to be a dummymander at the rate that they are relying on Latinos

Last edited Mon Aug 4, 2025, 05:12 PM - Edit history (1)

To vote reliably Republican. And also likely diluting many R incumbents to target D incumbents. This could potentially backfire in huge ways. And I think already is.

[DUU]

2. "Wait for the translation:"

This is far from over.

[SSJVegeta]

3. Also VA may very well have a trifecta state governemnt after November

Last edited Mon Aug 4, 2025, 05:13 PM - Edit history (2)

So i could see us picking up some seats there as well after a redraw.

[erronis]

4. Haven't I read that many states have an independent commission to do the re-allocation?

I would take a guess that the more progressive/Democratic states are looking for a fairer way to do this and have commissions or non-political groups.

And that the RW repuglicon states with control of the legislature prefer to let their fellow scum decide the boundaries.

Just a guess.

[h2ebits]

16. Yes, Colorado is one of them.

the redistricting was done by population. Colorado is a blue state but if you look at our map you will see that we have one large district due to lack of population over a great area. ie. Rocky Mountains and plains.

Law was passed to eliminate the gerrymandering.

[everyonematters]

5. Even if the Democrats don't do it, it might backfire on the Republicans.

The wider they spread that overall margin, the thinner the margin gets in the new districts. The Democratic turnout may overwhelm it anyways.

[Mr.WeRP]

8. I'd rather we stop playing by not playing and start playing with the same rules of engagement.

You aren’t going to win a fight with hands tied behind your back.

[unblock]

6. You can't just count the number of representatives by party, it's more complicated than that

First, to do a partisan gerrymander, you need the trifecta because the other party will block it if possible. Pennsylvania, for instance is out because republicans still hold the senate.

Second, gerrymandering works by packing the opposition into massively partisan districts while spreading your party around, giving you maybe 60-40 edge in most districts while conceding a loss in the packed districts that are 90% opposition. So even an extreme gerrymander in Pennsylvania would probably have to concede maybe 4 republicans districts.


That said, your overall point is entirely valid. Republicans have already been very aggressive in gerrymandering and don't have much left to squeeze out (even in Texas, which didn't get a fair map from the 2020 cycle) and democrats are catching up in terms of partisan zeal and anger and are more motivated to retaliate and have more opportunities for improvement if we can pull it off.

[Mr.WeRP]

7. Of course, I noted that with TX.

But if you are a party about to get into this kind of war, then you’d rather be Dems than Republicans. Why? Because Dems have way more room to gain than Republicans do.

This is largely because Republicans have already heavily gerrymandered the south, whereas blue states have taken the fair approach. If we finally play by the same rules of engagement, then we will likely win.

[WarGamer]

10. Unblock is right... only count States with trifectas.

PA and WI aren't controlled by Dems... CA would need to force the dissolution of the Commission...

You need to focus on the 15 Democratic trifectas.

[InstantGratification]

17. Read a comment on another thread

Don't know any details but the poster said that CA would pass a law that would bypass the commission and then revert back to it in 2030. I guess we all get to wait and see what each state decides to adopt.

[WarGamer]

9. Isn't the State Senate in PA run by the GOP?

[Wiz Imp]

11. Yes

[moose65]

12. It may be more complicated....

In NC for example (the most fucked up gerrymander in the country), Republicans control the legislature and we have a Dem governor, but the governor doesn’t play any role in redistricting - he can’t veto the maps.

NC is so gerrymandered, though, that I don’t think they could pick up more than 1 seat - Don Davis’s seat in NC-1, in the northeastern part of the state. It’s a rural district that historically has been majority black, but that’s changing as more retired white people move into the coastal areas.

[Jose Garcia]

13. Forget about Pennsylvania. The GOP controls the State Senate

[Johonny]

15. I think a blue wave makes these gerrymanderes districts

More dangerous in red states. A lot of these Trump voters don't show up for midterms

[Wiz Imp]

18. 27 states had their most recent districts drawn by the state legislature (19 Republican, 7 Democratic, 1 split)

6 states only have one Congressional seat. The rest of the states were most recently drawn by:
Court — 8 states, 91 districts: Connecticut (5), Minnesota (8), North Carolina (14), New Hampshire (2), New York (26), Pennsylvania (17), Virginia (11), and Wisconsin (8).
Independent Commission — 4 states, 82 districts: Arizona (9), California (52), Colorado (8), and Michigan (13).
Political Commission — 5 states, 28 districts: Hawaii (2), Idaho (2), Montana (2), New Jersey (12), and Washington (10).

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/who-controlled-redistricting-every-state

The only states that could definitely be redrawn by their legislature are these 27. I believe other states would require additional legislation.

GOP-Controlled State — 19 states, 177 districts: Alabama (7), Arkansas (4), Florida (28), Georgia (14), Indiana (9), Iowa (4), Kansas (4), Kentucky (6), Louisiana (6), Mississippi (4), Missouri (8), Nebraska (3), Ohio (15), Oklahoma (5), South Carolina (7), Tennessee (9), Texas (38), Utah (4), and West Virginia (2).
Democratic-Controlled State — 7 states, 49 districts: Illinois (17), Maryland (8), Massachusetts (9),
New Mexico (3), Nevada (4), Oregon (6), and Rhode Island (2).
Split Control — 1 state, 2 districts: Maine (2).

[Wiz Imp]

19. Texas Man DESTROYS Republicans for their Gerrymandering Plan

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3Y9f0xwaa2E

[markodochartaigh]

20. One thing that no one is mentioning

is that the Senate is very likely to be in Republican hands for a very long time unless new states are admitted, i.e. DC, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc. If the Republicans get away with this hyper-gerrymandering, both the House and Senate will be in Republican hands for decades.

The stakes are higher than just the House. Having any relevance in government is what is at stake for the Democratic part.

[standingtall]

21. I don't think it would be possible to gerrymandering the only Democratic seat out of Kentucky

even if they tried and that's, because of geography. Louisville would be the 3rd district and there is a river there and on the other side is Indiana and I'm pretty sure you can't gerrymander into another State plus they wouldn't want to redraw part of the 3rd district into other districts, because that would make those districts more competitive and they'd still lose 3rd district.

[Celerity]

22. PA, MN, and WI are not Blue Trifecta States so your maths are instantly off. Those 20 Rethug US House cannot be

gerrymandered away as of now.