Does the Stock Market Know Something We Don't?

[applegrove]

Last edited Sun Aug 10, 2025, 05:44 PM - Edit history (1)

Does the Stock Market Know Something We Don’t?

August 10, 2025 at 11:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 241 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2025/08/10/does-the-stock-market-know-something-we-dont/

Rogé Karma: “The uncomfortable fact about its historic run is that no one is sure why it’s happening—or what could bring it to an end.”

Applegrove: Krugman thinks it is speculation that AI will bring efficiencies to business, I think rich people just don't have a lot of options of where to invest as there is so much excess wealth. Maybe it is as simple as it is better than investing in bitcoin... because there are at least some assets there.

[multigraincracker]

1. Like investing in tulip bulbs

In the 17th century.

[moonscape]

2. Yes, the market

knows I went heavily into cash (against my advisor’s advice) some months ago with my meager nest egg.

[RainCaster]

3. They should be investing in people

Treat your employees better- pay them more and give them good quality insurance. That will give you an increased productivity that you can't get from AI.

[applegrove]

4. You rock!!

[Flash953]

5. Maybe because these people are B essing each other.

[questionseverything]

6. I agree they are investing in the market because there is so much extreme wealth

With gold topping $3400. An ounce

[Silent Type]

7. Market thinks -- maybe "hopes" is a better term -- we will survive.

[Bluestocking]

8. My 401k is in the most conservative safe investment

I know it is not stocks but I get a consistent 2.11% return that continues to grow and never goes down. With my employers 50% match it is good enough for me. Everyone around me who insists on investing in the market are losing money.

[stopdiggin]

10. that doesn't square with either what's been happening

or the OP and topic.
If your fellow employees are consistently losing money in this market ... That points to some really, really bad 'picks' and decision making.

Now, going forward .. ?? I'm going with a pretty conservative stance myself. But if we're speaking as to what is happening today ... The 'market's' breaking records.

[Happy Hoosier]

11. Whose losing money on the market?

My account has done 21% from a year ago. I don’t think that will continue, but I’ll easily top 2% over the next 10 years. I can do better than 2% in a HYSA.

[Metaphorical]

9. I had a theory once

about 25 years ago, that as technology became more pervasive, eventually all of the money in an economy would end up gathering up in a smaller and smaller pool, and as such would manifest as unimaginable wealth. This is really what happens in a hyperinflationary state - the very wealthiest continue to have the means to participate in the economy, but less and less of the rest do. This is pretty much the endgame of capitalism.

The problem, of course, is that money is not really a thing, per se - it's a means to make transactions possible, and that as the means to make those transactions possible in existing currencies becomes unattainable, something else will end up replacing it. This has happened with many currencies over the years - the dollar, for instance, was for a long time more stable a currency than many Latin American currencies, and during World War II, late in the war, the dollar again played that role in Germany as hyperinflation set in.

My guess is that this process is going on now - dollars are becoming more and more scarce, and once inflation sets in, this idiocracy is going to of course turn the printing press on full bore trying to course correct. Ordinarily (i.e., before Trump) the role of the Federal Reserve was to keep this from happening by raising interest rates (which is what Biden did in order to squelch inflation before it could really take hold). However, it's clear that Trump wants to effectively eliminate that point of resistance and push the interest rates down to zero, causing the process to accelerate rapidly and bringing about hyperinflation. I suspect what will happen if that is the case is that you will see trading increasingly done in other currencies (the Yen and the Yuan or Remnibi on the West Coast, the Euro on the East Coast and Midwest, maybe the Peso in the former Mexican territories), even as the dollar heads towards worthlessness). I don't see crypto coming into it in any meaningful way - there's way to much distrust of the Tech Bros at the moment, but it's possible.

[DinahMoeHum]

12. Methinks it's in a bubble. . .

. . .and bubbles bust. . .sooner or later