USD: Inflation after all? - Commerzbank

[UpInArms]

For those who are interested in what moves the Federal Reserve:

"However, it is surprising that it took today's PPI figures to bring this about. After all, core inflation also exceeded expectations slightly on Tuesday and revealed some worrying signs in the details. Looking at the momentum of core inflation (seasonally adjusted 3-month change annualised), for example, we see an acceleration from 1.7% in May to 2.8% now. Therefore, in recent months there has been no sign of a sustained downward trend towards the Fed's 2% target."

"Moreover, the fact that prices in the core goods sub-component rose by only 0.2%, indicating few signs of price increases due to tariffs, is deceptive. Apart from the period following the last inflation shock, this was the highest increase in July since 2001. Since 2001, the annual rate of change in core goods prices has been below zero in more than 50% of months. Goods prices normally tend to fall. In most cases, it is services that fuel inflation. Therefore, it should also be a warning sign that the annual change in core goods was 1.2% in July. This is the highest figure since 2011, excluding the period of high inflation following the pandemic."

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-inflation-after-all-commerzbank-202508151029

[markodochartaigh]

1. From WWII to the present

all inflation in the US has to be considered in the context of the dollar as reserve currency. When this context is no longer valid inflation will look a lot different.