Question for the experts re Hurricane Erin

[malaise]

What is the furthest distance north that a tropical Atlantic hurricane has reached?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052025_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/181540_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[Aviation Pro]

1. Look at the Wind Probabilities discussion and Wind Field graphics

At https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[FirstLight]

2. good question...since the oceans are getting much warmer...

If the temps off greenland and the glacial melt is any indication. I'd say all bets are off, cuz we honestly don't know what we're dealing with anymore. Could this churn enough water to push the AMOC over the tipping point? It's been teetering for a while...

[malaise]

3. Found this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_storm_of_1987

There was also one in 1703

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_storm_of_1703

[FirstLight]

4. wow, very interesting!

I also see that they don't categorize them as Hurricanes, but Great Storms...and the 1987 article said that hurricanes have different wind profiles and more rain (due to their tropical nature). Wow.
And the one in 1703, hitting the ships heading back to Spain, must have been seen as something... but then again there were massive British casualties too.

I was thinking about the effects off the Newfoundland and northern coasts of Canada...not the European aspect of the North Sea, oops! My bad geography!

[malaise]

5. My geography is worse

Trust me on that 😀

[FirstLight]

6. Here's another take, look at the current Ocean temps...

They look like they are borderline warm, heading straight to to british isles... If you follow that curve....

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/blended_sst_5km.html?product=bdn

[malaise]

7. Met office in the UK is sounding the alarm

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-600-mile-rainstorm-forecast-hurricane-erin-b2809564.html

[John Farmer]

8. SE England has been hit before, not by a hurricane but certainly with the remnants of one.

I recall hearing of significant damage at Kew Gardens. I remember seeing a lot of trees there that looked vulnerable.

[malaise]

10. Indeed

But This has H as opposed to ex-tropical

[eppur_se_muova]

9. High latitude impacts from https://nsidc.org/learn/ask-scientist/can-hurricanes-reach-arctic

In early September 2022, the remnants of Typhoon Merbok transformed into a northern Pacific extratropical cyclone, blasting western Alaska with hurricane-force winds and record-high storm surges. A few weeks later, the tentacles of Hurricane Fiona reached southern Greenland, leading to an unusual late season melt event over the southwest part of the ice sheet. As a hurricane, Fiona had previously ravaged Puerto Rico, cutting power to the island and other parts of the Caribbean before heading north.

Only a year earlier, in 2021, Hurricane Larry reached Newfoundland, before converting to a post-tropical cyclone that dumped snow on Greenland with wind gusts up to 145 kilometers (90 miles) per hour. Before Larry, Hurricane Noel struck Greenland in 2007. Other former hurricanes making landfall or brushing by Greenland in recent decades include Erin in 2001, Bertha in 1996, Luis in 1995, and Allison in 1995.

Former hurricanes that move into higher latitudes, like the 2022 western Alaska storm, expose populations at risk with energy grids and infrastructure not designed to take their impacts. High winds and ice-cold surges further erode already-sensitive coastlines. After Merbok receded, the Alaskan coastal towns of Skaktoolik, Kotlik, Scammon Bay, and Newtok reported dozens of homes flooded. Some homes were knocked off their pillars, a necessary foundation for building on permafrost, or frozen ground, to avoid thawing the soil beneath. Roads were washed away. Some communities lost over 30 meters (100 feet) of shoreline from erosion, according to the Alaska Department of Transportation. In total, the storm flooded 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) of Alaska’s coastline—equivalent to the distance between New York City and Tampa, Florida.

[malaise]

11. Thanks

Bookmarked