The Democratic Party Faces a Voter Registration Crisis (NYT)

[dalton99a]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/politics/democratic-party-voter-registration-crisis.html

https://archive.ph/y9FaG

The Democratic Party Faces a Voter Registration Crisis
The party is bleeding support beyond the ballot box, a new analysis shows.
By Shane Goldmacher
With Jonah Smith
Aug. 20, 2025 Updated 7:56 a.m. ET

...

Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party, Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.

The stampede away from the Democratic Party is occurring in battleground states, the bluest states and the reddest states, too, according to a new analysis of voter registration data by The New York Times. The analysis used voter registration data compiled by L2, a nonpartisan data firm.

All told, Democrats lost about 2.1 million registered voters between the 2020 and 2024 elections in the 30 states, along with Washington, D.C., that allow people to register with a political party. (In the remaining 20 states, voters do not register with a political party.) Republicans gained 2.4 million.

There are still more Democrats registered nationwide than Republicans, partly because of big blue states like California allow people to register by party, while red states like Texas do not. But the trajectory is troublesome for Democrats, and there are growing tensions over what to do about it.





...

[OldBaldy1701E]

1. I know we have our issues, but I am not buying this.

Mainly because of where it is coming from and who did the 'analysis'.

[Nimble_Idea]

6. o really?

You got the inside scoop on L2 then?

[OldBaldy1701E]

12. No.

I have a healthy dose of skepticism towards the analysis (not the original data) because of the source of both the analysis and the article.

You know.... these guys... (per a quick Google search)

[lostincalifornia]

23. I don't buy it either.

[JustAnotherGen]

2. Oh my god

The eyeroll is not directed at you dalton - it's directed at a broken media ecosystem that gets rewarded for pushing out drivel and nonsense about the 'Dems in Disarray'.

It's tiresome.

[Nimble_Idea]

5. I know right

I'd rather not hear about any of this. I am pretty sure those numbers in Florida are rigged too. Ain't no way a million people net gain to republicans. It isn't like that is reflecting in the actual election results.

[BComplex]

3. A LOT of registered democrats have changed to independent due to republican gerrymandering.

If you're registered as a democrat, and republicans have the chance to redistrict, they will count you as a vote to be cut out. It's time democrats nationwide did this in order to fuck up the republicans ability to cheat. Besides, many democrats are trying to send a message to the ensconced democrats in charge of the democratic party that it's time for new and better leadership, or that someone needs to poop or get off the pot as far as fighting back hard, loud, and consistently is concerned.

And a whole lot of democrats had enough when they pushed Joe Biden out the way they did. Kamala would have been the best president in American history, IMHO, but the WAY the democratic leadership went about it in 2024 was a party kill.

[Nimble_Idea]

4. I love it

I love watching the strategy of "absolute loyalty" versus "punish my own tribe"

It is just fascinating. The logic is something to behold. PRINCIPLES!

[JustAnotherGen]

9. The good part of this

In closed primaries - the true blue will have a greater voice than outsiders intent on 'bringing the revolution' faster.

[NCDem47]

7. I just said this in another discussion...

My thoery is Dems in red states or districts have changed to Independent, but still vote Democratic.

It's a safety thing and reduce potential harrasment. It's a different world at the moment. Ds are under attack.

[BComplex]

13. I agree that those who have changed their registration to "Independent" have been voting for Democratic

candidates in top and down ballots in the elections.
It's just the danger of republican gerrymandering that has a lot of Democratic, and Democratic - leaning, voters changing their registration, as well as the ones who are fed up with Democratic leadership NOT leading the Democrats in the way they care about. They still support Democrats on the ticket, they just don't do it with their registrations.

I also live in NC, and I personally know about 9 or 10 people from the western part of the state to the coast who have changed their registration for the reasons I have stated. Our legislature is owned by republicans, even though on State wide offices the Democrats come out on top for the most part.

[JustAnotherGen]

8. Agree with this

But add in the Far Leftists calling her a Genocider, the Uncommitted, and the US problem of white supremacy and being adjacent - and you had a perfect storm of people taking her down out of spite, racism, sexism - and most import? Careless People. They are careless people.

And a whole lot of democrats had enough when they pushed Joe Biden out the way they did. Kamala would have been the best president in American history, IMHO, but the WAY the democratic leadership went about it in 2024 was a party kil

I remember the Karine Jean Pierre kerfuffle. I still don't think people 'get it' - the hostility that Black women in this country have for EVERYONE.

[LeftInTX]

15. I don't think they look at voter registration by party as much as general election results.

Texas doesn't register by party, but we do have primary voting history. But they didn't go by primary voting history. (Primary votes are fickle and don't predict outcomes, especially if a seat in uncontested etc) Also, some will vote R in primaries and D in the general. Especially in Texas.


On Monday, an A-hole Texas House Committee said, "These seats are based on how they voted. This district went for Trump 60%, this district went for Cruz 60%". My jaw dropped, but since SCROTUS said they can gerrymander based on politics that's exactly what they did. There were arguments from several Democrats that it was a violation of the VRA, but those were ignored.

Primaries were not mentioned.

The problem with registering as an "R" is that you are on their mailing list and the Democrats will often drop you from their mailing lists. You will be bombarded with R propaganda.

[BeyondGeography]

10. I'm seeing a lot of denial about this here

For a clear-eyed POV:

“Anyone who says that these things are not concerning for Democrats is, in my opinion, mostly lying,” said Lakshya Jain, a Democratic analyst and co-founder of Split Ticket, a nonpartisan election-analysis site. “The act of being a registered Democrat is still psychologically something. The act of switching is a political statement.”

These numbers alone should wake everyone up:

Not so long ago, in 2018, Democrats had accounted for 66 percent of new voters under 45 who registered with one of the two major parties. Yet by 2024, the Democratic share had plunged to 48 percent, the Times analysis of L2’s data found. In other words, Republicans went from roughly one-third of newly registered voters under 45 to a majority in the last six years.

The story is even bleaker for Democrats in some key states. In Nevada, which releases particularly detailed data, Republicans added nearly twice as many voters under 35 to the rolls as Democrats did last year, state records show.

The shifts among male voters tell a similar story. Nearly 49 percent of men newly registering with a major party chose the Democrats in 2020. In 2024, that figure was down to roughly 39 percent. At the same time, the Democratic edge among women registering to vote has shrunk. The combination inverted a gender gap that in recent years had heavily benefited Democrats.

And this from Tom Bonier:

Tom Bonier, one of the Democratic Party’s leading experts on voter registration trends, spent much of 2024 downplaying the seriousness of his party’s registration woes. He has now come around.

“I was wrong,” he said in an interview.

“Clearly, in retrospect, we can say the Democratic Party had dug itself in too deep a hole in the preceding four years for the Harris campaign to dig itself out in the last few months,” added Mr. Bonier, referring to the 2024 bid by former Vice President Kamala Harris. He now calls the registration figures “a big flashing red alert.”

[Midwestern Democrat]

17. I'm sure hoping the denial we're seeing here is not reflective of the broader Democratic Party and its elected officials

Because if it is, we're in deep, deep trouble.

[Seeking Serenity]

20. Regrettably, this really isn't the place for honest, sober reflection on the Party's problems

Such threads tend to get reported as "demotivating" or some other expansive reading of the site rules.

[LeftInTX]

18. This is mostly based on 2024 and said there is limited data available for 2025.

Any hope that the drift away from the Democratic Party would end organically with Mr. Trump’s election has been dashed by the limited data so far in 2025. There are now roughly 160,000 fewer registered Democrats than on Election Day 2024, according to L2’s data, and 200,000 more Republicans.

[everyonematters]

11. I believe we will recover from this, but there are still a lot of voters who don't trust either party. That is what we

need to change.

[Bluesaph]

14. I'm one of them but it's not what you think!

I’m a naturalized citizen and when trump comes after naturalized citizens who are registered democrats I don’t want to make it too easy.

[LeftInTX]

16. I don't blame you!

[RandiFan1290]

19. Yep! nt

[RealityChik]

21. No longer consider myself a Democrat...

In fact, I’ve even considered registering as a Republican. Hear me out! What better way to sabotage republicans than do it on the inside? Just because I’m a registered Republican, doesn’t mean I have to cast my vote for Republicans. Even for primaries. Vote for the weakest Republican on the ticket. Vote for all Dems in the General. Who would know? Just think if a whole bunch of voters did that? I see it as making good trouble. Your thoughts, anyone?

[UTUSN]

22. The eternal conundrom, our constituenies under-vote. If every eligible voter actually voted

there wouldn't be a single wingnut in office anywhere. And was it Bill C. who said, (Repukes) "fall in line; Dems have to fall in LOVE."