The AI 2027 Report from the AI Futures Project

[LudwigPastorius]

This site is a fascinating hypothetical timeline of the development of AI over the next couple of years.

https://ai-2027.com

The CEOs of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic have all predicted that AGI will arrive within the next 5 years. Sam Altman has said OpenAI is setting its sights on “superintelligence in the true sense of the word” and the “glorious future.”3

What might that look like? We wrote AI 2027 to answer that question. Claims about the future are often frustratingly vague, so we tried to be as concrete and quantitative as possible, even though this means depicting one of many possible futures.

We wrote two endings: a “slowdown” and a “race” ending. However, AI 2027 is not a recommendation or exhortation. Our goal is predictive accuracy.4

We encourage you to debate and counter this scenario.5 We hope to spark a broad conversation about where we’re headed and how to steer toward positive futures. We’re planning to give out thousands in prizes to the best alternative scenarios.

Daniel Kokotajlo (TIME100, NYT piece) is a former OpenAI researcher whose previous AI predictions have held up well.

Eli Lifland co-founded AI Digest, did AI robustness research, and ranks #1 on the RAND Forecasting Initiative all-time leaderboard.

Thomas Larsen founded the Center for AI Policy and did AI safety research at the Machine Intelligence Research Institute.

Romeo Dean is completing a computer science concurrent bachelor’s and master’s degree at Harvard and previously was an AI Policy Fellow at the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy.

Scott Alexander, blogger extraordinaire, volunteered to rewrite our content in an engaging style; the fun parts of the story are his and the boring parts are ours.

This YouTuber made a walkthrough of this report that is a little more engaging than simply reading it.
(This guy speaks pretty fast. I found him more understandable by setting the speed at 90% and turning on captions.)

[usonian]

1. How can a system trained on human babblings become super-intelligent?

When half of humans, by definition, are of below-average intelligence.

Asking for Kurt Gödel.

[LudwigPastorius]

3. An artificial neural network that is to be used for AI research and coding, presumably...

wouldn’t be trained on YouTube comments and 4chan posts.

[Inkey]

2. Thanks for sharing this timely video.

We are at the crossroads if this AGI stage of history gets misappropriated by the few.
The scifi tales such as the Forbin Project, HAL, and Skynet were cautionary warnings
about the poorly designed AI beasties that might exist if left with out consent of those
most affected by their decisions.
Artificial General Intelligence is growing tendrils into our societies, Economic structures,
Military systems, and Governmental decision making.
My biggest concern is the Ethical implications that need to considered,
the potential for misuse and abuse by bad actors, the lack of transparency or
accountability by those using this technology, privacy concerns will occur, the
potential impacts on human autonomy and dignity. There really should be discussions
about Ethical Guidelines and the Frameworks to get a better handle on this before it
overwhelms us.