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The air is hissing out of the overinflated AI balloon Steven J. Vaughan-Nichols
Opinion There tend to be three AI camps. 1) AI is the greatest thing since sliced bread and will transform the world. 2) AI is the spawn of the Devil and will destroy civilization as we know it. And 3) "Write an A-Level paper on the themes in Shakespeare's Romeo and Juliet."
I propose a fourth: AI is now as good as it's going to get, and that's neither as good nor as bad as its fans and haters think, and you're still not going to get an A on your report.
You see, now that people have been using AI for everything and anything, they're beginning to realize that its results, while fast and sometimes useful, tend to be mediocre.
Don't believe me? Read MIT's NANDA (Networked Agents and Decentralized AI) report, which revealed that 95 percent of companies that have adopted AI have yet to see any meaningful return on their investment. Any meaningful return.
To be precise, the report states: "The GenAI Divide is starkest in deployment rates, only 5 percent of custom enterprise AI tools reach production." It's not that people aren't using AI tools. They are. There's a whole shadow world of people using AI at work. They're just not using them "for" serious work. Instead, outside of IT's purview, they use ChatGPT and the like "for simple work, 70 percent prefer AI for drafting emails, 65 percent for basic analysis. But for anything complex or long-term, humans dominate by 9-to-1 margins."
Why? Because a chatbot "forgets context, doesn't learn, and can't evolve." In other words, they're not good enough for mid-grade or higher work. Think of them as a not particularly bright or trustworthy intern. That may be good enough for $20 a month, but – spoiler alert – AI costs will have risen by ten times or more by next year. Will bottom-end AI be worth that to you? Your company?
I propose a fourth: AI is now as good as it's going to get, and that's neither as good nor as bad as its fans and haters think, and you're still not going to get an A on your report.
You see, now that people have been using AI for everything and anything, they're beginning to realize that its results, while fast and sometimes useful, tend to be mediocre.
Don't believe me? Read MIT's NANDA (Networked Agents and Decentralized AI) report, which revealed that 95 percent of companies that have adopted AI have yet to see any meaningful return on their investment. Any meaningful return.
To be precise, the report states: "The GenAI Divide is starkest in deployment rates, only 5 percent of custom enterprise AI tools reach production." It's not that people aren't using AI tools. They are. There's a whole shadow world of people using AI at work. They're just not using them "for" serious work. Instead, outside of IT's purview, they use ChatGPT and the like "for simple work, 70 percent prefer AI for drafting emails, 65 percent for basic analysis. But for anything complex or long-term, humans dominate by 9-to-1 margins."
Why? Because a chatbot "forgets context, doesn't learn, and can't evolve." In other words, they're not good enough for mid-grade or higher work. Think of them as a not particularly bright or trustworthy intern. That may be good enough for $20 a month, but – spoiler alert – AI costs will have risen by ten times or more by next year. Will bottom-end AI be worth that to you? Your company?
https://www.theregister.com/2025/08/25/overinflated_ai_balloon/]
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