Polling memo reveals risk for Indiana Republicans as they weigh redistricting

[Emile]

An overwhelming 81 percent of respondents agreed that redistricting “should be conducted in a balanced way,” according to a memo obtained by POLITICO.

A majority of Indiana voters oppose mid-decade redistricting in their state, a new poll shows, as White House officials host Hoosier Republicans in Washington Tuesday amid President Donald Trump’s redistricting pressure campaign.

The survey from left-leaning firm Change Research — which was commissioned by Count US IN, an Indiana-based nonprofit focused on increasing voter turnout and was obtained by POLITICO — shows several vulnerabilities for Republicans as Trump’s push to protect the GOP’s House majority sparks a nationwide redistricting arms race.

Fifty-two percent of registered voters in Indiana — which Trump won by 19 points last year — said they are against Republicans revising their maps, with 43 percent “strongly” opposing the effort.

Continued at: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/26/indiana-polling-00523844

[FBaggins]

1. Not much risk in those numbers

Run the same poll in California and you’ll get the same results.

The key question is how many voters who would otherwise vote Republican in 2026 will now vote for someone else because of how the republican voted on this issue. History says that this number is tiny.

The poll would be far more relevant if I Diana voters had to approve the redistricting the way California voters will in November.