The Democrats' Self-Destructive Fear of the Swing Voter

[Celerity]

The party is responding to Trump’s authoritarian abuses with timid messaging that sounds as if it’s been poll-tested to death—because it probably has been.

https://newrepublic.com/article/199660/democrats-polling-trump-swing-voter-fear

https://archive.ph/ZZQRo


Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (left) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (right) speak to the media outside the Capitol on April 1.

Democratic leaders who want a winning message against Donald Trump’s military occupation of Washington, D.C., should accuse the president of orchestrating “a stunt to distract from the pain his tariffs are causing families” and of “creating fear to distract” from his Republican Party’s cuts to Medicaid. What Democrats should not do: accuse Trump of “manufacturing a D.C. crime crisis” or of committing a “historic assault on D.C. home rule and is more evidence of the urgent need to pass a D.C. statehood bill.”

That’s the takeaway of a memo from Blue Rose Research, the outfit led by Democratic data guru David Schor, that’s making the rounds on liberal-left social media. The five-page document summarizes a poll, conducted August 12-13, that tested various messages about the federal takeover of the District. The survey found that messages accusing Trump of a “stunt” or “distraction,” and then pivoting to the damage caused by tariffs or Medicaid cuts, were the biggest drag on Trump’s approval; in fact, of the 16 Democratic messages tested, only those two tested above average, “and even still were barely above average,” the memo states.

This memo, which my colleague Perry Bacon reports “is being sent to Democratic leaders/elites,” could help explain why Democrats in the House and Senate have repeatedly said this exact thing in interviews and on social media. “As Donald Trump attempts to create chaos that distracts from his problems, we’ll call it out for what it is,” Illinois Governor JB Pritzker wrote on Bluesky on Friday. “Trump and Republicans are trying to distract from the pain they’re causing—from tariffs raising the prices of goods to stripping away healthcare and food from millions.”

The memo’s timing is impeccable: It has surfaced at the very moment several influential writers on the left have been debating the merits and uses of polling. But the issue is less with polling itself than with how the information is used—particularly by the Democratic Party. Many on the left have criticized the Democrats’ messaging as far too tame and predictable amid Trump’s increasingly authoritarian second term, accusing party leaders of parroting poll-tested messages rather than speaking passionately from the heart. The party’s real problem in the Trump era, though, isn’t simply that they’re letting public opinion—as represented by polls—shape their messages, though of course they’re doing that. The problem is that they’re scared of public opinion, in particular the opinions of the swing voters who elected Trump.

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[Passages]

1. More great news.

And, the demagogue is smiling, I am certain.

[leftstreet]

2. JFC. Can't even appeal to their OWN voters

6+ million reliably Democratic voters DIDN'T show up for Harris, but did for Biden.

But sure, let's worry about swing voters

[Silent Type]

3. I wonder what polls would show if we actually came up with some proposals to do something, rather just relying on

bashing trump. We've done that for 10 years now and he's still Prez and GOPers control Congress.