If Redistricting Goes as Expected, Which Party Will Come Out Ahead?

[In It to Win It]

NYT - Gift Link

The next phase of the redistricting war is starting to come into focus.

Indiana, Missouri, Ohio and perhaps Florida — all Republican-controlled states — seem likely to join Texas and California in attempting to redraw their congressional maps, according to my New York Times colleagues. By their tally, Republicans could carve out up to seven more House seats where they would be favored to win.

It’s too soon to be sure if these states will follow through, let alone whether it would mark the end of this cycle’s redistricting battles. Other states could join; a legal challenge to Utah’s map and a challenge to Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act also loom. But suppose that this is where the redistricting war goes next, and where it ends. If so, how much would the new maps tilt the playing field toward Republicans?

Ultimately, the most important question is whether redistricting prevents the party that wins the national popular vote from winning control of the House. If the popular vote winner is still likely to prevail, then gerrymandering, however odious, hasn’t necessarily left one party at an undemocratic disadvantage overall.

By this measure, the House map was fundamentally fair in 2024: Despite plenty of gerrymandering, the winner of the popular vote was reasonably likely to win the most seats. But if the new maps are enacted in all of these states, Democrats will need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to be favored to retake the House, according to projections based on recent congressional and presidential election results.

If Redistricting Goes as Expected, Which Party Will Come Out Ahead?

Democrats would probably need to win the national popular vote by two or three percentage points to retake the House next year.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/31/u...

— The Upshot (@upshot.nytimes.com) 2025-08-31T22:11:03.438Z

[Bobstandard]

1. California target of recall big Republican money

I got three large format color postcards urging me to vote against redistricting in California. I got two the week before that. They got out of the gate so fast that they didn’t yet know the Proposition number when the composed them. Our disposable old pal Kevin McCarthy heads a group behind some of them. An individual named Charles Mung has contributed $20 millions to a separate effort and pledges more. You can bet that bunches of Right wing PACs will jump in with their own efforts. One thing they all have in common is that they warn of the evils of redistributing in California while not even secretly supporting it in Texas and other red states.

The ones I got seem to have used lists lifted from property rolls. I suspect they crossed those names with other marketing demo lists to target predominately older folks. We’ve got whole neighborhoods of affluent retirees predisposed to fear of change. Which is exactly how the ad copy and imagery play.

Direct mail campaigns can be really effective with this demographic. Being first out of the gate with your message is very powerful. Being relentless in reinforcing that message across all media is another power move. The No campaign seems poised to do that. California, as blue as it is, is no lock.

The Yes campaign is going to need lots of help. If you’re thinking of donating, take the time to get it to legitimate Yes campaigns. The political donation vampire PACs are already in action trying to take advantage of the situation.

[Tribetime]

2. Its all subject to change if theS.C. rules to gut section 2

Of the voting rights act in the Louisiana case...maybe in January....I pray they don't. It could almost guarantee a Maga win in the midterms according to Mark Elias

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[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Current generic ballot polls show Dems ahead by 3-4%

So well within the margin needed to retake the house even with gerrymandering.

And a year from now that margin will likely be 1-3 points larger, especially if inflation is double digits and the economy is in recession.

[pwb]

4. They are just moving angry voters around. Independents and

a lot of pukes are saying enough. People will still vote however they want. We win big in this. If we could only get a Senate seat from the Red States with a total population of a small city? People are angry there too so we shall see.