Why is there no Invest for this system

[malaise]

This is seriously unusual for systems with such a high predication of formation
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&basin=atlc&fdays=7

[SheltieLover]

1. Stay safe, All!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

2. "Invest" means what in the context of storms?

[malaise]

3. Good link here

https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/2025-06-03-2025-hurricane-season-what-is-an-invest

What Is An Invest?
As hurricane season rolls around, you may start to hear the term “invest” used, but what does it mean?

An invest – short for "investigation" – is a naming convention used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to identify features they are monitoring for potential future development into a tropical depression or storm.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

4. Thanks. Very few would know that and I was not among them. Maybe no invest bc they are short staffed?. . . nt

[electric_blue68]

26. TY, Learned something new.

[malaise]

28. Here we go 91L

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#91L

[CurtEastPoint]

5. What does that mean? " Invest "

[malaise]

6. See post #3

[NEOH]

7. I Smell D.O.G.E. Cuts Here...

[malaise]

10. I did wonder about changes at NOAA/NHC

but we had invests for the previous mostly fish storms

[NEOH]

12. Exactly!

[ornotna]

8. Inadequate staffing at the NHC

Thanks tRump.



Just a guess.

[LeftInTX]

9. There probably will be. I think once it's given an "invest" status they develop models.

And devote more specific attention to it.

At least that's AI is telling me.


I know the invests all have computer models, but the "chance of develop" regions don't. Maybe there needs to be more of pressure change or something more defined in order to model? Do all of the invests have Lat/Long at the starting point?


I know sometimes they get called "tropical depressions" around here, even though they aren't. Sometimes they're called "tropical lows". Keep in mind that an "invest" off the Texas coast very likely won't develop, but they can be significant rain makers that stall over land.

[malaise]

11. We usually have them at 60%

You can find some models here

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

Click Forecast Models, then region - Tropical Atlantic

By now NHC would have given a number with L for Atlantic

[LeftInTX]

13. They have a "sounding" for it, which is looking at the atmosphere above it

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2025090318&fh=6&lat=10.79&lon=-31.30&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular

But I don't see a steering model.

[malaise]

16. It has slowed down but I've followed much slower systems

We have time since this is next week
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this
system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week or this weekend over the eastern or
central tropical Atlantic while moving slowly toward the
west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph. The system is likely to move faster
toward the west or west-northwest thereafter and reach the waters
east of the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week.

[LeftInTX]

18. I know the "sounding" measures instability above where the potential storm can form.

They do soundings over land too via weather balloons.

I'm pretty sure it will become an invest, unless it peters out.

[malaise]

19. Thanks

[malaise]

32. Tropical low, tropical wave, tropical depression,

tropical storm, hurricane and major hurricane.

[bamagal62]

14. It does have a red X now.

I have read that it is an extremely slow mover. Maybe since it’s moving so slow, it’s not worth an “invest”-igation yet. Im guessing saving resources at this point. A good resource is Yale Climate Connections, “Eye on the Storm” blog (Jeff Masters). Always scroll down and read the comments after the current blog post.
Sometimes, you can learn a lot from
The weather geeks that post (sometimes not😂 .

[malaise]

17. Please see #11

That was for you. 😀

[bamagal62]

22. Thanks!

Yes, tropical tidbits is a good resource too!

[Silent Type]

15. With all trump's crud, it's good to know hurricanes aren't likely to hit landfall witthout days of warning.

[canetoad]

20. I'm looking at the winds

In close to real time here: https://earth.nullschool.net

A very large high above and below and the winds are starting to circulate along a low pressure trough. Yeah, still looks messy but it could be a worry.

[malaise]

21. Hi there

Watching our election results come in

[electric_blue68]

27. Ah, good luck

[surfered]

23. Can't answer your question. I assume it doesn't yet meet NHC criteria. But..

..here are the Model Forecasts:

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn

European
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn

The current models have it going north of you, but it’s early. Stay tuned.

You would think Trump would want accurate hurricane forecasts for his Mar -a- Lago golf club

Bless up!

[malaise]

24. Thanks

[surfered]

25. 🙏

[malaise]

34. The most important news is that so far this too looks like

a fish storm

[JustAnotherGen]

29. I wouldn't look to NOAA

For accurate and timely information. The magapub dictatorship is trying to destroy the agency.

[malaise]

30. We use a variety of models

but the investigation still matters

[JustAnotherGen]

31. America is dead malaise

Don't waste your time with us anymore. We are a shithole country.

[malaise]

33. Hope it's temporary

[JustAnotherGen]

35. I hope

We build back better. No return to the status quo.

That process is going to be even MORE painful for the rest of the world.

They stand down now?

They better stand their asses down we take our country back from Fascism. Harris advised - thy system is broken. Time to throw the old one out and build a country based on equality.

[malaise]

36. It's a global problem

Greed is good has to go along with the current cruelty and contempt,pt for the poor and the other.

[JustAnotherGen]

39. I'm actually

For Greed for Black Americans. We were left out of the economy for 346 Years . . .

As Nina Simone said - me and my people just about due.

I have zero regard for the rest of the world. I just want them to sit down, shut up and not pretend like they are these big huge champions of Human Rights, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties in America.

They can deal with their own internal issues how they want.

They did nothing when we murdered Indigenous Americans, they were totally in on Slavery, didn't lift a SINGLE fucking finger to help us during Jim Crow.


Fuck the rest of the world. We go it alone.

[LeftInTX]

37. It's an invest now

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#91L

[malaise]

38. Yep and it

looks like another fishstorm - fingers crossed.

[malaise]

40. Good report

[LeftInTX]

41. The track sure changed! Who knows what the intensity will be?

[malaise]

42. Now looking more

like my direction. May weaken before it gets here

[malaise]

43. This one is over

Last edited Sat Sep 6, 2025, 08:57 PM - Edit history (2)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
limited amount of shower activity. Development of this system is
not expected while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Why it collapsed