Recession warning signs to watch: Goodbye lipstick, hello Hamburger Helper

[IronLionZion]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/10/14/recession-indicators-warning-signs/
Gift link: https://wapo.st/47139XP
Archive link: https://archive.ph/EfFvW

Everything is a “recession indicator” online. Here’s what you really need to pay attention to.

The United States is not in or even near a recession, despite what your grocery bill feels like. But the economy is in an uncertain place, with a number of signs of weakness that economists are monitoring.

For years, one of the best-known recession indicators has been the “lipstick index,” which posits that Americans stock up on cheaper feel-good makeup when times are tough. That one might be outdated — or at least different now — partly because of the popularity of skin care spending and changing consumer habits.

Here are some economic warning signs experts say to watch for.
Cardboard box production
Cardboard boxes power the consumer economy. They not only bring joy in the form of online shopping purchases, they are literally how retailers move goods. When cardboard box production slows, it could be a sign that people are expected to buy less in coming months. And cardboard box production is down.

Hamburger Helper is back
Hamburger Helper sales have bumped up significantly this year, according to parent company Eagle Foods, as people seek out deals on groceries. For decades, people have turned to the packaged pasta-and-seasoning meals when times are tight — or, as social media users have been embracing this year, “struggle meals.”

Sales of big trucks are slumping
Thrifting is in
No more job hopping
Home equity loans up; residential building permits down

Weren't economic issues and high prices big campaign issues last election? How's that working out?

[Keepthesoulalive]

1. I trust nothing from the Bezos post

Maybe he is not in recession but the rest of us are.

[IronLionZion]

2. Consumers might cut back on Amazon purchases

[Keepthesoulalive]

3. They have

Prime days did not do as well as the previous one.

[Oeditpus Rex]

10. Yeah, he wrote that himself

[Keepthesoulalive]

12. All articles and editorials must be approved by Bezos

Or one of his lackeys. That is why many of the most qualified and respected reporters quit or were fired.

[Oeditpus Rex]

13. Source, please (n.t )

[Keepthesoulalive]

14. Google, Duck Duck Go

Where he sat during inauguration, no endorsement and telling editors they could not endorse. The journalists who left also tell the story. It’s out there if you choose to look.

[Oeditpus Rex]

15. A newspaper owner telling the editorial board

not to endorse a candidate is a few light-years from assuming total co trol over everything printed in news and editorial.

[Keepthesoulalive]

17. He fired the editor and replaced him with a toady

Jennifer Rubin and many other journalists left because of his interference. I will not do your research, it is out there if you choose to look.

[Oeditpus Rex]

18. Jeff Bezos has other things to do

than read and edit (or spike) every news story and op-ed piece before the Post goes to press every day.

Your source tells you he hired "toadies." Does it tell you what they do, or are you just assuming?

[Keepthesoulalive]

19. If you choose not to research Bezos

That’s up to you. I will not give you information that you will just say that’s fake news.

[Oeditpus Rex]

20. What I've found does not in the least support

your claims of Bezos taking total editorial control of the Post. (it's from The New Yorker, in case you're interested.(

[leftstreet]

4. LOL hamburger is like $1,000 a lb

well, maybe not that much, but still

[IronLionZion]

6. 100 years ago hamburger had a reputation for being super sketchy

The beef industry and restaurants like White Castle spent a ton on marketing to convince Americans that hamburger was good food and safe to eat. Beef is a bit more expensive these days since America has less ranch land available.

[Midnight Writer]

5. Hamburger Helper is not the bargain it used to be since hamburger around here costs 8 dollars a pound.

[AZJonnie]

7. It's still pretty good with ground turkey though and that's still reasonable $$$

Esp. if you stock up at Costco

[WarGamer]

8. Hamburger Helper isn't even a good deal...

$2.79 at my local store, on sale... for just 6 oz of pasta

Can buy a pound of pasta for 99 cents... and the portion of seasonings to make the sauce makes it waaaay cheaper.

And much healthier!!

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

9. Hamburger is about 5 bucks a pound where I live

Maybe use ground turkey or pork.

[Jack Valentino]

11. Who can afford the hamburger ??

[Zorro]

16. Went to Costco yesterday

My wife remarked she saw no one with a full cart -- that could also be a sign of the current economic situation.

[Initech]

21. This is a sign that the economy is on the brink of collapse.

And of course, during the Fox News sponsored forced government shut down, the fucking asshole is holding a million dollar a plate fundraiser for his stupid bullshit ballroom. Worst administration in United States history!

[JI7]

22. How is this considered cheaper ?

I guess if you are comparing to take out or something.

But you can things like pasta and rice in larger quantities for less.