"The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss and Neil Howe.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

Everyone should read it. The book carefully explains the cycles of history.Essentially we are currently in the part of the cycle they call the Fourth Turning, where everything goes to hell and then everything is resolved more or less and we then start a brand new cycle. The last fourth turning was 1929-1945, the Great Depression and WWII. Things were awful, then the good guys won and we entered the 1950s, the baby boom, and so on.

Right now, according to Strauss and Howe, we are at the beginning of a new fourth turning, and at present we have no way of knowing how it will all end. or who will win. Because of this book, I take the long view: Yes, things are bad now but they will get better eventually.

[Wounded Bear]

1. Read that a few years ago. Not a fan of the premise...nt

[ret5hd]

3. the writers seem EXCITED about possibilities...

many fans describe themselves as “accelerationists”…they want to push society into the described crisis, not because it is inevitable but because that is where they see their opportunity.

and some just want to see the world burn.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. Yes, much loved by neo-nazi christian dominionist accelerationists. Main psychosocial history on FReak site. . . . nt

[PatSeg]

18. And there are the Christians who want to witness

the End Times and think they can accelerate the process. They are not content letting prophecy unfold in time, they want the Rapture today!

[MaineBlueBear]

2. 9/11 caused the fourth turning

Welcome to the aftermath

[Renew Deal]

25. That was probably part of the 3rd turning

The fourth started around the financial crisis of 2008

[cachukis]

4. My thinking is it will take a generation to settle.

There are technology issues beyond what followed WWII. Analog has been replaced by digital and the human mind has not kept up.
We marveled at and applied the tools that jumped out; television, microwaves, copy machines, fax machines, computers and portable phones.
They were still hands on.
Now, we talk to Alexa and Siri. We are chatting with bot girlfriends and psychologists.
We are living a pace needing high speed computers to solve our problems.
We are not equipped to function at that speed.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

8. Exactly. It takes longer for things to settle

than most expect, but when they do it tends to be sudden, decisive, and final.

I keep on recommending this book because of the insight it gives into both history and current events.

[underpants]

5. I believe Steve Bannon is a big believer in this.

But for evil reasons.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. It's a thought provoking hypothesis but not especially fact based

The Strauss and Howe interpretation of history through a generational lens has received mixed reviews and described as a form of pseudoscience.[3][6][7] Some reviewers have praised the authors for their ambition, erudition, and accessibility. For example, former U.S. Vice President Al Gore called Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 the most stimulating book on American history he'd ever read, and sent a copy to each member of Congress.[5] The theory has been influential in the fields of generational studies, marketing, and business management literature. However, it has also been criticized by historians, political scientists, and journalists, as being overly deterministic, non-falsifiable, and unsupported by rigorous evidence.[1][2][3]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

9. They also quote dozens of

historians who essentially see the same thing.

This book isn't just one man's musings.

[ariadne0614]

10. Keeping the long view in the background allows me to maintain my sanity.

I just finished reading Apocalypse: A Transformative Exploration of Humanity's Resilience Through Cataclysmic Events, by Lizzy Wade. It helped me calm down as well. We need to think rationally, in order to increase the chances of a good outcome for this cycle.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/217223360-apocalypse

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

12. Thanks for that suggestion.

I just placed that book on hold at my library.

[ariadne0614]

14. I hope it's as interesting to you as it was to me.

A friend brought it to my attention, otherwise I would have surely missed it.

[pecosbob]

11. Sounds a lot like the crap spouted by the Temple Mount Faithful.

The people that want to bullzoze the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem and re-institute live sacrifices on Temple Mount. Add to that crazy Magats that believe this would signal the second coming and the rapture.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

13. I have nelver heard of the Temple Mount Faithful.

But Strauss and Howe are not talking about anything like that.

Actually reading the book would be helpful.

[ariadne0614]

15. Leaping to conclusions is so much easier. n/t

[Renew Deal]

16. It's good and it explains historical cycles

And the current "fourth turning" seems to be playing out, with the Gen Z riots in many places, the demands to remove older politicians, and the swings to authoritarianism. It will take a few bloody years to sort it out.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

21. What Gen Z riots?

[kcoates]

22. Gen z riots

I assume the recent ones in Nepal, Madagascar, Morocco plus other parts of Africa and Asia.

[Renew Deal]

23. Correct

The fourth turning isn't just a US phenomenon

[GusBob]

17. Our mantra in our household has been doom/gloom since Jan

" Things are bad and they are only gonna get worse" Everyday has proven this to be true

We dont feel things are gonna get better in our lifetimes**, sorry

**shortened we fear due to unable to afford health insurance next year

[Scrivener7]

19. Thanks. I'll get it.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

20. "Essentially things will get a whole lot worse before they get better, and a lot of things will change."

Nostradamus of our age.

[Renew Deal]

24. the other part of it is the consistent 80 year cycle

With certain types of changes within approximately 20 year timeframes. The idea is that there are four turnings over 8 years. The fourth is typically the most bloody and violent burning of the past. The first turning comes next and is usually some form of reconstruction and advancement.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

29. Reconstruction comes after destruction? Do tell.

[Renew Deal]

30. What happened in Europe after WW2?

Or the US after the Civil War?

[WhiskeyGrinder]

31. I'm saying a person doesn't need pseudo science to figure that out.

[leftstreet]

33. They buried 80 million dead people

Civil War, close to 1 million

You'd have to look at economic cycles that don't include war

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

34. It's long and complicated, what happened

in Europe after WW2 or the US after the Civil War. This book, "The Fourth Turning" explains it all in detail. It's not something to be explained in 25 words or less. Read the book before you comment.

[Renew Deal]

37. You assume too much

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

40. I'm not assuming anything.

I'm simply recommending a book.

[TheProle]

26. Semi-related albeit through a technical lens:

[biophile]

32. Sustainable capitalism

Sounds great but almost an oxymoron - I would like to hear more about how that works.

[ZDU]

27. I'm near certain that I'll be dead

Yet here's wishing all the very best for when the stink stops hitting the fan...

[yankee87]

28. Nuclear Annihilation?

What if the fourth turning is nuclear annihilation? Go back to insects and single cell organisms. I hope not, but with Xtian Fascists in charge, who knows.

[msfiddlestix]

35. Oh my gosh, my vision disability interpreted the word turning to be tuning quite a different kettle of fish

[AZProgressive]

36. I think Steve Bannon is fan of that book

I don't really buy into it because we were a razor thin margin away in 2016 from Trump never becoming President and living in a completely different country than the one we have now.

[thought crime]

38. So is Newt Gingrich.

[thought crime]

39. It's pop history. It passes as intellectualism in an anti-intellectual movement.

[Orrex]

41. Something about a widening gyre?