Melissa landfall
The latest landfall location is now about 70 miles west of Kingston, which would seem better than being ground zero.
We don’t have a flooding problem where we live but our experience with hurricanes is it is better to be farther away from the landfall as wind damage and storm surge is lessened.
I hate the expression “thoughts and prayers,” but that’s all I have to offer right now, except for my promise to contribute to a relief fund or Red Cross.
= new reply since forum marked as read
with canes this strong. Yes its always better to be farther away from the center when it comes to surge but not rain. It should be noted this thing hasn't grown in size, yet, like they were forecasting a few days ago. There are also signs it may be beginning an eyewall replacement cycle, or trying to at the very least, and is getting hit with some shear from the West. This could lessen surface winds and corresponding surge. Rain is the biggest deal with over 3 ft in areas from Jamaica West and North for around 150 km's. The only "good" thing is once it makes it move towards Jamaica it will be accelerating off to the NNE. The forecasts of it hanging around nearly on top of the Island Nation a few days ago look less likely.
Not trying to understate this storm but there are still a lot of moving parts. Landfall points aren't that important unless your in a storm surge prone area. To me, its going to be rain mixed with mountains. A terrible combination. Take care one and all down there and we'll see you on the other side.
Respectfully 
5:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 26
Location: 16.4°N 77.2°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph
After an earlier pause in intensification, this afternoon's Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has found Melissa intensifying
again. The minimum pressure has fallen 12 mb from this morning NOAA-P3 mission, with the last dropsonde indicating a minimum
pressure of 941 mb, and the plane reported a shrinking eyewall down to 6 n mi in diameter.
Key Messages:
1. Jamaica: SEEK SHELTER NOW. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall
tonight and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening
flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially
devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and
communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected.
Life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected along
portions of the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning.
2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and
life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across
southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic
through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and
isolation of communities is likely. Although winds have temporarily
decreased on the Tiburon peninsula, they are likely to increase
again across much of western Haiti on Tuesday.
3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge is expected along
portions of the southern coast of eastern Cuba late Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall with
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are also expected beginning on Monday. Preparations
should be rushed to completion.
4. Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa
closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge,
damaging winds, and heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. Watches
will likely be required early Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 16.4N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 16.6N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 17.2N 78.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 18.4N 77.5W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
60H 29/0600Z 20.0N 76.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...ON THE SE CUBA COAST
72H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.4W 90 KT 105 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 30/1800Z 28.0N 69.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 37.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
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