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The Next Terrorist Attack - And What Comes After (Updated) -- Timothy Snyder
https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-next-terrorist-attack-26bSix months ago I wrote this post about “the next terrorist attack.” I republish it now (lightly updated) because my fear of this scenario has recently grown much greater. All of the factors described below still apply, and indeed more strongly than before. More good people have departed from the crucial agencies. Many of those who remain are disoriented and angry at what they rightly see to be the total disregard of real threats to national security or indeed the total indifference to US interests that is the hallmark of this White House. More unqualified people are at the top. The government shutdown makes us seem more vulnerable and makes us in fact more vulnerable. It is demoralizing for those who protect us and encouraging for those who wish us ill. We can take it for granted that Trump and his advisors would greet a terrorist attack as an obvious chance to blame their chosen enemies, advance their project of authoritarian regime change, and distract from their own perilous follies. The point of this essay is that the rest of us have to anticipate this chain of events and recognize the sad probability of the attack itself and the absolute predictability of this administration’s response. When the terror attack (God forbid) arrives, it is the Trump administration that should bear responsibility. TS 1 November 2025
Thirty years ago today, I was driving a moving van across the country, from the west coast to the east. The hold was packed well; the ride was wobbly, and I kept the heavy vehicle between the lines, mile after mile. Driving carefully, I was surprised to be stopped by state troopers. When I rolled down the window to face some polite questioning, I didn’t know that Timothy McVeigh had bombed the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, killing 168 people and injuring 684 more.
In the days that followed, the horror was treated for what it was: an attack by a racist, right-wing anti-government terrorist. I worry now that, thirty years on, a similar attack is very likely, and would have a different outcome. I don't want us to be more frightened than we should be. But I do want us to be ready, so that a moment of predictable shock does not become a lifetime of avoidable subjugation.
As I will try to show, the present government invites a terror attack. Most of the people directing the relevant agencies are incompetent; the next few layers down have been purged in culture wars; much the remaining personnel have resigned, been fired, or are demoralized; resources have been diverted away from terror prevention; Americans has been distracted by fiction and chaos; and potential attackers have been encouraged.
. . .
Thirty years ago today, I was driving a moving van across the country, from the west coast to the east. The hold was packed well; the ride was wobbly, and I kept the heavy vehicle between the lines, mile after mile. Driving carefully, I was surprised to be stopped by state troopers. When I rolled down the window to face some polite questioning, I didn’t know that Timothy McVeigh had bombed the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, killing 168 people and injuring 684 more.
In the days that followed, the horror was treated for what it was: an attack by a racist, right-wing anti-government terrorist. I worry now that, thirty years on, a similar attack is very likely, and would have a different outcome. I don't want us to be more frightened than we should be. But I do want us to be ready, so that a moment of predictable shock does not become a lifetime of avoidable subjugation.
As I will try to show, the present government invites a terror attack. Most of the people directing the relevant agencies are incompetent; the next few layers down have been purged in culture wars; much the remaining personnel have resigned, been fired, or are demoralized; resources have been diverted away from terror prevention; Americans has been distracted by fiction and chaos; and potential attackers have been encouraged.
. . .
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