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RandySF

(84,259 posts)
Sat Nov 1, 2025, 06:56 PM Nov 2025

NJ-GOV: N.J. governor's race is a dead heat, new poll shows

Democrat Mikie Sherrill has a 50%-49% lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in an AtlasIntel poll released this morning.

The poll gives Ciattarelli a 54%-46% lead among independents.

Donald Trump is upside-down in New Jersey, with approvals of 47%-52%, while Gov. Phil Murphy is also underwater: 43%-53%.

In a performance evaluation, Trump is at 49%-51%, Murphy at 53%-47%, Attorney General Matt Platkin is at 59%-40%, and Lt. Governor Tahesha Way is at 61%-39%.





https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/n-j-governors-race-is-a-dead-heat-new-poll-shows/

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NJ-GOV: N.J. governor's race is a dead heat, new poll shows (Original Post) RandySF Nov 2025 OP
Anytime a Democrat doesn't run as a populist in this environment SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #1
But people from NJ said it's things like high property taxes that people are upset about JI7 Nov 2025 #3
A good populist would literally be running on that as a core issue. SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #4
The populists in this country support Trump JI7 Nov 2025 #8
Populists in this country also support Mamdani and AOC SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #9
New Jersey doesn't support populists JI7 Nov 2025 #10
Obama was a populist SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #12
Obama was a traditional Democrat like the candidate running right now JI7 Nov 2025 #13
His entire rhetoric was aimed at pitting the working class against the wealthy SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #15
No, Obama was similar to Clinton. Both traditional democrats JI7 Nov 2025 #16
Traditional democrats are new deal democrats SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #17
Clinton ran as an outsider from Arkansas also JI7 Nov 2025 #18
Clinton ran as a "New Democrat" SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #19
What mixed economic social democratic policies ? JI7 Nov 2025 #20
FDR literally said you have the right to food, housing and a good education SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #21
All Democrats say that. Stop tryng to rewrite history JI7 Nov 2025 #22
My post was a copy pasta of FDR's speech. No rewrite of history needed. SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #23
Which democrats don't think government should do that ? JI7 Nov 2025 #24
You tell me SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #25
Mamdani says he is socialist JI7 Nov 2025 #28
Are you saying the Dem nominee for mayor is a fake Democrat? SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #29
Read the post again. JI7 Nov 2025 #33
So what? He is also a Democrat who supports New Deal policies. SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #35
Democratic socialism isn't socialism, populism isn't populism, it's a secret mix of herbs & spices. betsuni Nov 2025 #40
More like a label and an action are two different things SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #41
This message was self-deleted by its author SSJVegeta Nov 2025 #11
Mikie wins by 5%................... Lovie777 Nov 2025 #2
Anecdotal, but, My BIL in NJ, say Sherrill should win by 5 to 7%--FWIW!! n/m Ars Longa Nov 2025 #5
For what it's worth, Atlas Intel polls of Trump's approval rating have consistently Wiz Imp Nov 2025 #6
Looking at the Atlas Intel polls in NYC and VA they are also karynnj Nov 2025 #36
Poll shows 18% Ciatterelli lead among black voters Jersey Devil Nov 2025 #7
Didn't he say he wanted to bring back segregated schools? TheBlackAdder Nov 2025 #14
I still say they need to check the voting machines for malware. BComplex Nov 2025 #26
Someone (anyone) plz tell me why it's a dead heat vapor2 Nov 2025 #27
Sherrill is a shitty campaigner. bushalert Nov 2025 #30
When she first ran she flipped a long held Republican seat karynnj Nov 2025 #37
Hard to believe JBTaurus83 Nov 2025 #31
NJ is a bro state Aviation Pro Nov 2025 #32
No-name pollsters seem to call it a dead heat, whereas the more reputable ones show a solid (6%'ish) lead for Sherrill. W_HAMILTON Nov 2025 #34
What's ticking me off is my state tax return has been under review for 5 months. TheBlackAdder Nov 2025 #38
I live over in Philly JBTaurus83 Nov 2025 #39

SSJVegeta

(2,848 posts)
1. Anytime a Democrat doesn't run as a populist in this environment
Sat Nov 1, 2025, 06:58 PM
Nov 2025

.. they are shooting thermals in the foot twice

JI7

(93,615 posts)
3. But people from NJ said it's things like high property taxes that people are upset about
Sat Nov 1, 2025, 07:02 PM
Nov 2025

SSJVegeta

(2,848 posts)
9. Populists in this country also support Mamdani and AOC
Sat Nov 1, 2025, 09:46 PM
Nov 2025

They also supported Obama (who ran as a populist).

They also will likely be supporting Talarico.

SSJVegeta

(2,848 posts)
12. Obama was a populist
Sat Nov 1, 2025, 10:31 PM
Nov 2025

He won NJ both times with almost 60%

He is probably the last good populist to be on a statewide ballot in NJ. In fact I dont think a Democrat has won that much of the vote in NJ since a populist like Obama ran.

FDR also won NJ every time he ran.

Seems to me NJ really likes populists but rarely has the opportunity to vote for the good ones. And they are often smart enough to know the difference between a good populist (like FDR and Obama) or a bad populist (like Trump)

SSJVegeta

(2,848 posts)
15. His entire rhetoric was aimed at pitting the working class against the wealthy
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 08:38 AM
Nov 2025

And embracing the change we need and could believe in for a system he made clear wasnt working for us (aka: populism). But more importantly true traditionalist Democrats are populists from the New Deal coalition which died mostly in the 60s and entirely by the 80s.

The New Deal was textbook populism. Obama embraced the rhetoric of The New Deal, but couldn't manage to actually codify it into policy .

Mark my words: The New Deal Coalition is making a comeback, and those who resist it will see political extinction.

JI7

(93,615 posts)
16. No, Obama was similar to Clinton. Both traditional democrats
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 08:43 AM
Nov 2025

Clinton gets hated from Nafta and Obama was getting hatred for TPP. Both supoorted global trade deals and got hatred from those saying they were from the left.

Tryng to paint Obama as a populist is a total rewrite of history. He didn't even present himself that way.

SSJVegeta

(2,848 posts)
17. Traditional democrats are new deal democrats
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 08:48 AM
Nov 2025

Clinton was a southern democrat who marketed himself not as a traditional democrat (because those people were losing elections) but a "im not gonna tax you but embrace capitalism and social liberalism" Democrat. There was nothing "traditional" about Clinton's brand of Democrat. In fact he called himself a "New Democrat" which was patently not a traditional Dem.

Obama however ran on an entirely anti establishment platform aimed at the needs of the working class. That is textbook populism.

At this point we can agree to disagree since all of these are things you can google. But if you think it will go anywhere, Im happy to continue

JI7

(93,615 posts)
18. Clinton ran as an outsider from Arkansas also
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 08:59 AM
Nov 2025

And FDR, Clinton, and Obama's were all pro capitalists.

SSJVegeta

(2,848 posts)
19. Clinton ran as a "New Democrat"
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 09:01 AM
Nov 2025

Literally what he called himself. That is not traditional any way you stack it.

Being pro capitalist has nothing to do with any of this. Populism can be pro capitalist and the mixed economic social democratic policies of the new deal were very pro capitalist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democrats_(United_States)/

JI7

(93,615 posts)
20. What mixed economic social democratic policies ?
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 09:10 AM
Nov 2025

They are just government programs funded by taxes. It was all a capitalist system jyst Kilmer FDR, Clinton. and Obama all supported.

They didn't support things like government run grocery stores.

SSJVegeta

(2,848 posts)
21. FDR literally said you have the right to food, housing and a good education
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 09:44 AM
Nov 2025

He proposed an entire 2nd bill of rights entirely dedicated to such things. It isnt crazy to think that if given the opportunity (not dying), he would have went much further than a government funded grocery store.


Search for:
Economy & Economic Justice / Democracy & Government
FDR’s Second Bill Of Rights
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
by Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Source: Franklin Delano Roosevelt / January 11, 1944

single image
Excerpted from Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s message to Congress on the State of the Union. This was proposed not to amend the Constitution, but rather as a political challenge, encouraging Congress to draft legislation to achieve these aspirations. It is sometimes referred to as the “Second Bill of Rights.”

It is our duty now to begin to lay the plans and determine the strategy for the winning of a lasting peace and the establishment of an American standard of living higher than ever before known. We cannot be content, no matter how high that general standard of living may be, if some fraction of our people — whether it be one-third or one-fifth or one-tenth — is ill-fed, ill-clothed, ill-housed, and insecure.

This Republic had its beginning, and grew to its present strength, under the protection of certain inalienable political rights — among them the right of free speech, free press, free worship, trial by jury, freedom from unreasonable searches and seizures. They were our rights to life and liberty.

As our nation has grown in size and stature, however — as our industrial economy expanded — these political rights proved inadequate to assure us equality in the pursuit of happiness.

We have come to a clear realization of the fact that true individual freedom cannot exist without economic security and independence. “Necessitous men are not free men.” People who are hungry and out of a job are the stuff of which dictatorships are made.

In our day these economic truths have become accepted as self-evident. We have accepted, so to speak, a second Bill of Rights under which a new basis of security and prosperity can be established for all — regardless of station, race, or creed.

Among these are:

The right to a useful and remunerative job in the industries or shops or farms or mines of the nation;
The right to earn enough to provide adequate food and clothing and recreation;
The right of every farmer to raise and sell his products at a return which will give him and his family a decent living;
The right of every businessman, large and small, to trade in an atmosphere of freedom from unfair competition and domination by monopolies at home or abroad;
The right of every family to a decent home;
The right to adequate medical care and the opportunity to achieve and enjoy good health;
The right to adequate protection from the economic fears of old age, sickness, accident, and unemployment;
The right to a good education.
All of these rights spell security. And after this war is won we must be prepared to move forward, in the implementation of these rights, to new goals of human happiness and well-being.

America’s own rightful place in the world depends in large part upon how fully these and similar rights have been carried into practice for our citizens.


Consider also who one of FDRs main allies was: Mayor Fiorello Laguardia. NYC already has a number of city run grocery stores that were founded by the former Mayor. This idea isnt new, Mamdani is just looking to extend it. (And yes, former Governor of NY, FDR, was a supporter of such things).

https://www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/government-is-already-in-the-grocery-business#:~:text=Beginning%20in%20the%201930s%2C%20Mayor,to%20adapt%20to%20current%20needs.

https://jacobin.com/2025/04/fiorello-la-guardia-nyc-mayor

Mamdani, again, is running as an extension to traditional new deal coalition policies that FDR and Laguardia (a republican), spearheaded.

JI7

(93,615 posts)
22. All Democrats say that. Stop tryng to rewrite history
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 11:06 AM
Nov 2025

and then say what FDR would have done as proof he is something he isn't.

Which Democrats don't think people have a right to food, housing, and education ?

SSJVegeta

(2,848 posts)
23. My post was a copy pasta of FDR's speech. No rewrite of history needed.
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 11:15 AM
Nov 2025

Read the speech: FDR wanted the government to ensure those things and felt that was what the government exists to do. He made this clear with policies that involve the government in doing these things.

No. Not all Democrats think the government is responsible for ensuring people get a good education, housing and food. Quite the opposite for most folks. Hence your quip about publicly funded grocery stores which I imagine you mean is too extreme, but existed as part of the new deal coalition that FDR spearheaded.

JI7

(93,615 posts)
28. Mamdani says he is socialist
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 11:36 AM
Nov 2025

why don't you give me the name of Democrats that doubt support helping people with food, housing, and education ?

SSJVegeta

(2,848 posts)
35. So what? He is also a Democrat who supports New Deal policies.
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 12:38 PM
Nov 2025

Why do you care that he also calls himself a socialist like Bernie, AOC -and others?

betsuni

(29,075 posts)
40. Democratic socialism isn't socialism, populism isn't populism, it's a secret mix of herbs & spices.
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 05:48 PM
Nov 2025

SSJVegeta

(2,848 posts)
41. More like a label and an action are two different things
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 10:25 PM
Nov 2025

Is the democratic people's republic of Korea democratic and a republic? They claim to be.

Maybe we should actually consider policies and practices then worry about what label somebody is given (either from themselves or by others).

FDR rejected the socialist label-and described himself as a capitalist, but his closest ally LaGuardia called himself a socialist and they advocated for the same policies. Does that make FDR a socialist? Or LaGuardia a capitalist? Does it matter?

Response to SSJVegeta (Reply #9)

Wiz Imp

(9,991 posts)
6. For what it's worth, Atlas Intel polls of Trump's approval rating have consistently
Sat Nov 1, 2025, 07:59 PM
Nov 2025

had him at a higher approval rating than most polls (latest is at 46 Approve, 51 Disapprove).

The other poll that had it as a dead heat should not be taken seriously at all (IMO). That one was from Emerson College which has had Trump's approval in net positive territory for most of the year.

karynnj

(60,965 posts)
36. Looking at the Atlas Intel polls in NYC and VA they are also
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 12:44 PM
Nov 2025

Worse for the Democrats. I would guess they may have a consistent bias to the Republicans vs most other polls. Possibly coming from the model they use to determine likely voters. It could also be the weights they give to the strata defining the universe.

But, for whatever reason, they are consistently different. Let's hope Tuesday suggest they are the ones who need to relook at their modelling.

In a time where only about 2 percent of those sampled answer, polling can't be easy.

vapor2

(4,506 posts)
27. Someone (anyone) plz tell me why it's a dead heat
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 11:32 AM
Nov 2025

when 17 million have been removed from healthcare, republicans let SNAP expire, they are illegally blowing up boats for possible regime change in Venezuela and Ice body slamming and deporting people without due process. What the f is wrong with those who are still voting R?? Asking for a country under siege

bushalert

(252 posts)
30. Sherrill is a shitty campaigner.
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 11:43 AM
Nov 2025

I will obviously vote for her, but Sherrill is an uninspiring suburban moderate - not what we need in these times. Not feeling good about this election.

karynnj

(60,965 posts)
37. When she first ran she flipped a long held Republican seat
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 12:50 PM
Nov 2025

Rodney Frelinghuysen did not run for reelection.

This was a district that in Presidential elections, the goal of volunteers led by the party was to minimize the Republican margin. She obviously was a good enough campaigner to win.

Since then her district was made more Democratic.

JBTaurus83

(1,379 posts)
31. Hard to believe
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 11:50 AM
Nov 2025

Democrats have lost so much ground to Cankles and the GOP in NJ. It was a pretty close win for Kamala as well. The last thing we need is to lose NJ from the coalition.

W_HAMILTON

(10,333 posts)
34. No-name pollsters seem to call it a dead heat, whereas the more reputable ones show a solid (6%'ish) lead for Sherrill.
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 12:38 PM
Nov 2025

TheBlackAdder

(29,981 posts)
38. What's ticking me off is my state tax return has been under review for 5 months.
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 01:25 PM
Nov 2025

It’s similar to returns of prior years, where I get a refund.

This year, it’s over $1700 and they’ve been slow walking it.

JBTaurus83

(1,379 posts)
39. I live over in Philly
Sun Nov 2, 2025, 05:28 PM
Nov 2025

And we are no stranger to high taxes. The city income tax here is pretty ridiculous. That being said, taxes in NJ when I used to work in the mortgage industry were through the roof. Both candidates have been accusing the other of wanting to raise taxes in ads, so I assume this is really a sore spot for people who live there.

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